Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
224 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2017

...FEBRUARY 2017 NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

As of February 6, 2017, the USGS measured 14 day streamflow for
most of the region remains near normal for this time of year.
The high precipitation totals over much of the last 45-60 days
have helped to streamflow along unregulated watersheds normal
to above normal. Lower than normal streamflows can be found at
some locations, either due to regulation changes or longer term
deficits in soil moisture, which can be seen in some streamflow
gages in east-central New Mexico.

Looking at data from the NASA SPoRT project, relative deep soil
moisture (DSM, 0-200 cm soil depth) as of February 7 for most of
the Hydrologic Service Area is in the 50% range with wetter values
over the Four Corners region. A distinct area of DSM values of
35% or less remains visible over much of the state east of the
Central Mountain Chain with some values as low as 10-15% of total
capacity. This is not likely to change in the near future as soil
moisture recharge is typically low during the cold season.

...PRECIPITATION...

January 2017 remained quite active meteorologically, with numerous
storm systems producing heavy mountain snowfall and widespread
precipitation for New Mexico. Although the region entered a
quieter pattern the last week of January and the first week of
February, the year-to-date precipitation totals for most of New
Mexico (through February 5) remain well above normal. Most long
term observing sites in the state are reporting 150% or more of
normal precipitation for the time period. A few locations remain
notability below normal, mainly over portions of the Eastern
Plains.

For the 2016-2017 Water Year, the pattern of very wet conditions
east of the Central Mountains and drier conditions west of the chain
 continues to hold. A very dry October was balanced out by a
predominately wet November. The first half of December was a
return to dry conditions before a pattern shift in the second half
of the month through January significantly increase precipitation
totals over the state.


...SNOWPACK...

Snowpack data from the USDA/National Resource Conservation Service
(NRCS) indicate that the snowpack (specifically snow water
equivalent, or SWE) for most basins in northern New Mexico are at
or well above normal as of February 7. These values have increased
significantly from early in the season where most basins were
less than 80% of normal. Basins in southern New Mexico are
generally near or slightly above normal for SWE values for this
time of year. The San Francisco and Rio Hondo basins are below
normal, with the Rio Hondo being notably below normal for this
time of year.

One change over the month of January was that several cold and
snowy weather systems moved through the state, which helped bring
 the SWE values over the southwestern NM basins up significantly
with at one point all basins having values well above normal. The
quieter pattern over the last 14 days has created a plateau in
the increase SWE values over many basins, so while there has been
little change in the actual SWE values, the percent of normal
values have changed relative to the time of year.

NRCS SNOTEL Basin Average Values as of February 7 2017

Basin                                      Snow Water Eqv %       Total
                                                              Precipitation %

Rio Chama River Basin                      174                144
Upper Rio Grande Basin                     149                116
Sangre De Cristo Mountain Range Basins     134                113
Jemez River Basin                          129                116
San Francisco River Basin                   88                125
Pecos River Basin                           99                92
San Juan River Headwaters                  145                123
Animas River Basin                         159                132
Cimarron River Basin                       137                104
Zuni/Bluewater River Basin                 111                160
Rio Hondo Basin                             61                108


...RESERVOIR SUMMARY...

Most reservoirs in New Mexico have ample storage capacity at this time.
Below is the current reservoir storage in KAF and percent of capacity
for selected reservoirs in New Mexico as of February 1st, 2017. Data
is from the USDA/NRCS.

ReservoirCurrent        Current %
                        Storage KAF         Capacity

Abiquiu Reservoir 120.7     10%
Bluewater Lake 2.9     8%
Brantley Lk nr Carlsbad 36.9     4%
Caballo Reservoir 25.7     8%
Cochiti Lake 44.7     9%
Conchas Lake 72.1     28%
Costilla Reservoir 9.8     MSG
Eagle Nest Lake         30.7     39%
El Vado Reservoir 50.4     26%
Elephant Butte Reservoir 252.2               11%
Heron Reservoir          65.4                16%
Lake Avalon              2.9                 73%
Lake Sumner              29.6                29%
Navajo Reservoir         1305.8              77%
Santa Rosa Reservoir     51.5                12%

Total                    2091.5              25%

...STREAMFLOW FORECASTS...

NWS River Forecast Centers, in conjunction with our partners in the
NRCS, USACE, and the USBR, produce seasonal streamflow forecasts
for selected river locations and basins in New Mexico. These
forecasts are based on hydrologic conditions as of the 1st of the
month and may not reflect current trends and forecasts.

As of 1 February, most basins impacting New Mexico are expected to
have above normal runoff volumes through the forecast period due
to the large snowpacks available for runoff. The Navajo and San
Francisco River are expected to have near to slightly below normal
runoff volumes.

Forecasts issued by NWS/West Gulf & Arkansas-Red RFCs

                                FORECAST RUNOFF                      AVERAGE
                                                                      RUNOFF
                                  MOST     REASONABLE   REASONABLE     30YR
                                PROBABLE    MAXIMUM      MINIMUM    1981-2010
    FORECAST           FORECAST        %            %            %
      POINT             PERIOD 1000  30YR   1000  30YR   1000  30YR    1000
                          (*)   AF   AVG.    AF   AVG.    AF   AVG.     AF
                    *(1)APR-SEP
                    *(2)MAR-JUL

Canadian River
Eagle Nest RES
  Rsvr Inflow, NM         (2)   15    134     23   205   9.00    80    11.2

Cimarron River
  Cimarron Nr, NM         (2)   21    133     35   222   7.40    47    15.8

Conchas RES
  Rsvr Inflow, NM         (2)   40    133    102   340  10.30    34      30

Rio Grande River
 Otowi Bridge, NM         (2)  1080   150   1490   207    734   102     720
 San Marcial, NM          (2)   820   161   1122   220    520   102     510

Rio Hondo
 Valdez , NM              (2)  28.0   152     40   217     17    95    18.4

Rio Pueblo de Taos
 Los Cordovas blo, NM     (2)    55   153     97   269     25    69      36

Embudo Creek
 Dixon                    (2)    53   110     92   192     24    50      48
 El Vado res Inflow, NM   (2)   380   169    549   244    241   107     225
 Chamita nr, NM           (2)   470   151    714   229    381   122     312

Rio Ojo Caliente
 La Madera, NM            (2)    80   178    124   275     65   144      45

Santa Cruz River
 Cundiyo, NM              (2)  19.4   106     28   153     12    68    18.3

Pecos River
 Pecos nr, NM             (2)    60   105     92   161     35    61      57
 Anton Chico nr, NM       (2)    67   106    129   205     25    40      63
 Santa Rosa Lake Inflow,  (2)    59   105    113   202     23    41      56

Gallinas River
 Montezuma nr, NM         (2)   9.8   100     20   204      3    31      9.8


Forecasts issued by NWS/Colorado Basin RFC

                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    255   119    340    280    235    200    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    455   120    620    510    405    355    380
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1360   124   1850   1520   1190    990   1100
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1370   125   1930   1580   1210   1030   1100
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    880   120   1230   1000    755    640    735


Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     55    85     87     68     49     40     65

Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    515   124    640    590    480    400    415


Gila/San Francisco/Zuni River Basins

Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Feb-May   0.71   187    6.5    2.6   0.35   0.10   0.38

Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Feb-May     65   130    135     84     44     34     50
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Feb-May     85   135    185    114     60     48     63

San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Feb-May   17.0    93     38     27   12.9   10.9   18.2


50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.


...DROUGHT...

Areas of drought persist over the region, mainly over the east-central
plains of New Mexico and the NM/AZ and NM/CO border. This is predominately
to a combination of a long term moisture deficit (as seen in the
soil moisture data) and short term meteorological trends. The impact
of this longer-term drought can been seen in some unregulated streamflow
gages in eastern New Mexico as baseflow is well below normal for
this time of year. Drought status for NM is re- evaluated weekly
and can be found at the National Drought Mitigation Center website
at http//droughtmonitor.unl.edu.


...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
The 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks issued by the NWS/Climate
Prediction Center continue an increased probability of normal to above
normal temperatures and wet conditions for most of New Mexico. An active
weather pattern is expected to resume this weekend into early next
week, which will help to contribute more to snowpack values. Please
refer to the latest forecasts for more current weather
information.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
The NWS/Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Nina Advisory that
currently remains in effect. Models guidance is expecting the
weak La Nina to end with neutral ENSO conditions for the spring.
The current CPC forecast for February through April 2017 continues
the increased likelihood of warmer and drier conditions for New
Mexico. These outlooks are issued monthly with the next outlook to
be issued on February 16th. Outlooks can be found at the NWS/CPC
website at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
At this time, the risk of spring flooding remains average for basins
with near to above normal snowpack values and below normal for
basins with below normal values. Many factors impact the
likelihood of spring flooding, including snow pack and hydro-
meteorological conditions at the time of runoff. While spring
snowmelt related flooding is not usually expected on most mainstem
rivers in New Mexico due to regulation, conditions will have to
be monitored as the season progresses for the potential of higher
than normal peak flows on unregulated rivers.

The NWS Albuquerque Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) is serviced three
river forecast centers: West Gulf RFC (Ft Worth, TX), Arkansas-
Red Basin RFC (Tulsa, OK), and the Colorado River Basin RFC (Salt
Lake City, UT). These RFC`s issue a variety of hydrologic forecast
products during the year. Further products and current
information can be found at the following locations:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc
https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

You can also find additional weather and water products and forecasts
at the NWS Albuquerque website at:

http://www.weather.gov/abq

For questions or comments about this outlook, you can contact Royce Fontenot,
Senior Service Hydrologist, at 505-244-9150 x 228 or via e-mail at
royce.fontenot@noaa.gov

&&

54/Fontenot

$$



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