National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Versions: 1
000
FGUS71 KAKQ 212102
ESFAKQ
MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001-
007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-
097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159-
175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-
760-800-810-830-042115-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
502 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

...SIXTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2013...

...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR NORMAL THROUGH APRIL 4TH...

EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE
HSA INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS
INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM FLOWS...
RIVER ICE...AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
PRIMARY FACTOR THAT LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.

THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS:

CURRENT FLOODING - NO RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD AS OF 4 PM
THURSDAY MARCH 21ST.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS...FROM MARCH 7TH
THROUGH MARCH 21ST...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.50 INCHES
TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FELL OVER
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
TIDEWATER. IN THIS AREA THE RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE TWO WEEK
PERIOD WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN A
BAND FROM LOUISA COUNTY EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK INTO
ACCOMACK COUNTY ON THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE 2 TO 3 INCH BAND OF
RAIN WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD.

LOOKING LONGER TERM BACK TO THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...JANUARY
1...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HSA HAS SEEN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
FALL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 INCHES OF RAIN.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA ARE NOW SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH DEFICITS FOR THE PERIOD WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR.

AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH RAIN HAS FALLEN SO THAT NO PORTION OF THE
HSA IS DESIGNATED AS BEING ABNORMALLY DRY OR IN DROUGHT. FOR FURTHER
DROUGHT INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:

HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

SNOW CONDITIONS - AVERAGE.

CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW
FELL THIS MORNING...MARCH 21ST...BUT NOW MEASURABLE AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO ICE ON AREA WATERS IN THE WAKEFIELD
HSA.

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

THE 14 DAY AVERAGE FLOWS ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HSA SHOW ABOVE
NORMAL AVERAGE FLOWS ACROSS THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES...REAPPEARANCE AND YORK BASINS...DUE LARGELY
TO THE HIGH FLOWS EARLY IN THE TWO WEEK PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...THE 14
DAY FLOWS HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKING AT THE DAILY STREAM FLOWS TODAY...MARCH 21ST...SHOWS THAT
THE RIVER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN FROM THE HIGH VALUES THAT WERE IN
PLACE TWO WEEKS AGO. THE LOWEST FLOWS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CHOWAN BASIN WHERE DAILY FLOWS ARE HOVERING BETWEEN NORMAL AND
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AS RAIN FALL WAS LACKING OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS.

SOME OBSERVED DAILY STREAM FLOWS WITH THE MEDIAN FLOW AS OF MIDDAY
ON THE 21ST OF MARCH:

LOCATION OBSERVED MEDIAN/PERCENTAGE
                                                        OF MEDIAN

RIVANNA RIVER/PALMYRA VA        1280CFS   785CFS/163.1
JAMES RIVER/CARTERSVILLE VA    13000CFS  9430CFS/137.9
JAMES RIVER/RICHMOND VA        10300CFS 14400CFS/ 71.5
APPOMATTOX RIVER/FARMVILLE VA  259CFS   317CFS/ 81.7
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATTOAX VA  768CFS   848CFS/ 90.6
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATOACA VA 1610CFS  1700CFS/ 94.7
NOTTOWAY RIVER/RAWLINGS VA  254CFS   368CFS/ 69.0
NOTTOWAY RIVER/STONY CREEK VA  595CFS   779CFS/ 76.4
NOTTOWAY RIVER/SEBRELL VA 1600CFS   2310CFS/ 69.3
MEHERRIN RIVER/EMPORIA VA        486CFS    888CFS/ 54.7
BLACKWATER RIVER/FRANKLIN VA 938CFS  1020CFS/ 92.0
MATTAPONI RIVER/BOWLING GREEN VA 437CFS   338CFS/129.3
MATTAPONI RIVER/BEULAHVILLE VA  935CFS   923CFS/101.3
BEAVER DAM CREEK/SALISBURY MD  38CFS    31CFS/122.6
POCOMOKE RIVER/ WILLARDS MD 113CFS   104CFS/108.7
POTECASI CREEK/UNION NC   90CFS   261CFS/ 34.5

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX...WHICH IS USED TO INFER DEEP SOIL MOISTURE...SHOWS...AS OF
MARCH 16TH...THAT THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND MOST OF NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR SOIL MOISTURE. BUT FOR
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
DELMARVA...THEY ARE DENOTED AS UNUSUALLY MOIST. THIS IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS DEPICTION ON MARCH 2ND. THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE
MONITOR...WHICH LOOKS MORE AT THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE...STILL SHOWS A
SMALL POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR EASTERN VIRGINIA FROM THE TIDEWATER
THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AND THE DELMARVA SHOW NEAR
NORMAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE.

GROUND WATER - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GROUND WATER WELLS IN THE CLIMATE RESPONSE NETWORK ARE ALL
INDICATING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL GROUND WATER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH EACH RAIN EVENT THE GROUND WATER WELLS ARE
RESPONDING WITH INCREASING WATER LEVELS...WHICH GIVES AN
INDICATION THAT WITH EACH RAIN EVENT...THE GROUNDWATER CONTINUES
TO BE RECHARGED.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL. RESERVOIRS LEVELS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR GUIDE CURVE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WATER STORAGE IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE.

WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE WEATHER...
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY THE 23RD OF MARCH. HOWEVER A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THE 24TH AND
25TH WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. TOTAL RAIN FOR THE EVENT COULD
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FROM THE 26TH
THROUGH 28TH...COLD AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE.

IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...FROM MARCH 29 THROUGH APRIL 4TH...
THE OUTLOOK IS FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LASTLY...THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE SHOWS
AN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. FOR PRECIPITATION...THE AREA IS IN THE EQUAL
CHANCES CATEGORY...WHICH MEANS THE CHANCES ARE THE SAME FOR BELOW
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH APRIL 4 2013...

THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA IS NORMAL FOR ALL BASINS...INCLUDING THE JAMES AND
APPOMATTOX AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA... THE
CHOWAN BASIN IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
THE LOWER ROANOKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH APRIL 4TH.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE
SEASON...UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE. REGULARLY
SCHEDULED OUTLOOKS WILL RESUME IN JANUARY OF 2014.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD.


$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
