Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
520 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017


...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 4 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE FOURTH OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD FEBRUARY 16TH TO
MARCH 2ND.

...OVERVIEW...

RECENT INCREASES IN THE SNOWPACK HAVE MOVED THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT FLOODING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
TRIBUTARIES WHERE THE THREAT IS ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN AND SOUTHERNMOST HUDSON RIVER ESTUARY TRIBUTARIES...WHERE
THE THREAT REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE THREAT FOR RIVER ICE JAM
FLOODING REMAINS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

BACK TO BACK WINTER STORMS WITHIN THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE
INCREASED SNOWPACK THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH MOST AREAS
NOW SNOW COVERED.

SACANDAGA AND INDIAN LAKE WATERSHEDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE
MEASURED BETWEEN 6 AND 20 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH CONTAINING 1 TO
NEARLY 4.5 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT. THIS IS JUST OVER 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTH AND EAST IN NEW YORK STATE...SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILL
MOUNTAINS.

IN THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT...20 TO 30 INCHES OF
SNOW WERE MEASURED...CONTAINING 4 TO NEARLY 7 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. THIS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FROM THE BERKSHIRES OF MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH THROUGH THE LITCHFIELD
HILL OF CONNECTICUT...SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 9 TO 13
INCHES...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

28 DAY STREAMFLOW AVERAGES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW
YORK ARE NEAR NORMAL ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/
STREAMGAGES.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS THAT WERE VERY LOW DUE TO THE RECEDING DROUGHT
ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND. ABOUT HALF OF U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
/USGS/ WELLS IN EASTERN NEW YORK ARE STILL REPORTING BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELLS HAVE
RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL.

EASTERN NEW YORK SOIL MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED
SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A RESULT OF LONG TERM DRY CONDITIONS.

...WATER SUPPLY...

MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOWMELT OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS
GENERALLY RAISED RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION /NYCDEP/
WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE AT 79 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WHICH IS
NINE PERCENT BELOW NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITY. THIS IS TWO PERCENT
HIGHER THAN AT THE TIME OF THE LAST OUTLOOK...TWO WEEKS AGO.

HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS IN THE
BLACK RIVER WATERSHED...AS WELL AS INDIAN LAKE IN THE UPPER HUDSON
WATERSHED...ARE ALL WITHIN ABOUT A FOOT OF TARGET ELEVATIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE IS ABOUT TWO AND A HALF
FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE SOME SNOW
MELT DURING THE DAY...IT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY RAINFALL
OR STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTROLLED AND GRADUAL
DIURNAL MELT OF THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. ONLY SMALL AND MINOR RISES
CAN BE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 22ND THROUGH THE 26TH OF
FEBRUARY... AS WELL AS THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 24TH
THROUGH MARCH 2ND...BOTH CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

...SUMMARY...

RECENT INCREASES IN THE SNOWPACK HAVE MOVED THE THREAT FOR
SNOWMELT FLOODING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
TRIBUTARIES WHERE THE THREAT IS ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN...WHERE THE THREAT REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE THREAT FOR
RIVER ICE JAM FLOODING REMAINS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FIFTH WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR
THURSDAY...MARCH 2ND. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW NORMAL
SNOWPACK AND NO RIVER ICE.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY. ENSEMBLE FORECAST INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS.

$$

BEW/TAW/BJF/RH



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