National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Versions: 1 2
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FGUS72 KCAE 041439
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GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-
061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-061445-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013

        ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING:

SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL LAKE AND
UPSTREAM FROM BURTONS FERRY...

THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG
COUNTY LINE IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON/BERKELEY COUNTY
LINE AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE
GREENWOOD/SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE
CHESTER/FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE WATEREE RIVER SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS SOUTH
CAROLINA...

AND THE PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

              ...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS...

OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ENDING LAST NIGHT...THE AREA RECEIVED
NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THERE
WAS A MINOR FLOOD ON THE STEVENS CREEK IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA.

                      ...SOIL MOISTURE...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON APRIL 04 2013 FOR DATA THROUGH
APRIL 02 2013 SHOWED IMPROVEMENT FROM THE MARCH 19 2013 ISSUANCE.

                          ...DETAILS...

D2...SEVERE DROUGHT...WAS REMOVED FROM THE AREA.

D1...MODERATE DROUGHT...COVERED LINCOLN...MCDUFFIE...COLUMBIA
AND RICHMOND COUNTIES IN GEORGIA.

D1...EXTENDED INTO WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ABBEVILLE
COUNTY TO EASTERN CHER0KEE COUNTY TO NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY
INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NORTH CAROLINA
ACROSS NORTHEAST MARLBORO COUNTY TO CENTRAL DARLINGTON COUNTY TO
FAR SOUTHEAST LAURENS COUNTY TO NORTHWEST SALUDA COUNTY TO FAR
SOUTHERN LEXINGTON COUNTY TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN BAMBERG COUNTY TO
SOUTHEAST ALLENDALE COUNTY TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALLENDALE COUNTY TO
FAR SOUTHWEST BARNWELL COUNTY TO EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA.

D0...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...SURROUNDED THE D1 AREA...SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY
TO NORTHWEST CHEROKEE COUNTY TO NORTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NORTH CENTRAL HORRY COUNTY TO
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY TO CENTRAL CALHOUN TO NORTHEAST CLARENDON
COUNTY TO FAR NORTHWEST COLLETON COUNTY TO EASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY
TO THE COAST. THIS INCLUDED FAR NORTHERN BURKE COUNTY IN GEORGIA.

THE REST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND BURKE COUNTY IN GEORGIA WAS DROUGHT FREE.

GO TO DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/MONITOR.HTML FOR MORE DETAILS.

                   ...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...

THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF APRIL 04 2013
ARE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH
RIVER BASIN. THE ONLY AREAS WITH BELOW NORMAL FLOWS ARE THE BASINS
IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND RIVER BASINS IN THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF SOUTH CAROLINA...BETWEEN 10 AND 24 PERCENTILE RANGE.

                      ...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

MOST RESERVOIRS IN THE TABLE BELOW SHOW RISES WITH LAKE
THURMOND RISING OVER 2 FEET ABOVE THE LEVEL RECORDED
ON MARCH 21 2013.  ONLY LAKE WATEREE RECORDED A DROP IN LAKE
LEVEL.  HOWEVER LAKE WATEREE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE TARGET
LEVEL SET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LAKE THURMOND IS NOW LESS THAN
3 FEET BELOW AVERAGE.

LAKE RUSSELL                            LAKE THURMOND
MARCH    21 2013 474.50 FEET              321.77 FEET
APRIL    04 2013 474.52 FEET              324.52 FEET
DIFFERENCE    PLUS 0.02 FEET           PLUS 2.50 FEET

LAKE GREENWOOD                            LAKE MURRAY
MARCH    21 2013 437.56 FEET              358.24 FEET
APRIL    04 2013 438.48 FEET              358.29 FEET
DIFFERENCE    PLUS 0.92 FEET           PLUS 0.05 FEET

LAKE MARION                              LAKE WATEREE
MARCH    21 2013  75.38 FEET               97.19 FEET
APRIL    04 2013  75.40 FEET               97.08 FEET
DIFFERENCE    PLUS 0.02 FEET          MINUS 0.11 FEET

THE LEVEL OF LAKE THURMOND WAS 2.35 FEET BELOW AVERAGE AND THE
LEVEL OF LAKE RUSSELL WAS 0.40 FEET ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE LEVEL OF LAKE WATEREE WAS 0.08 FEET ABOVE THE 97.0
FOOT TARGET LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS
AND DUKE ENERGY.

                        ...CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS WELL. THE APRIL OUTLOOK LEANS TOWARD EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED.

SEE CPC WEB PAGE AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.

             ...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

NEAR TERM...SEE THE ZONE AND GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT WEATHER.GOV/CAE.

                  ...8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...

THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 11 2013 TO APRIL 17
2013 CALLS FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 11 2013 TO APRIL 17
2013 CALLS FOR A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

                   ...MONTHLY OUTLOOK...

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2013 CALLS FOR A 33 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2013 CALL FOR A 33 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

                 ...THREE MONTHLY OUTLOOK...

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL...MAY AND JUNE OF
2013 CALLS FOR A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

THE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR APRIL...MAY AND
JUNE OF 2013 CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHERE THERE IS A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

                          ...SUMMARY...

WITH PLENTIFUL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 MONTHS...STREAMFLOWS ARE
BETTER THAN THE FLOWS IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR...BUT STILL 54
PERCENT OF RANKED GAGES ARE REPORTING FLOWS IN THE LESS THAN 25
PERCENTILE RANGE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE IN THE TIME OF YEAR
WHERE CHANCES OF FLOODING DECREASES.

WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST BY
THE OUTLOOKS THROUGH APRIL...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR
2013.

                      ...ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

DATA AND OTHER INFORMATION USED IN THIS STATEMENT CAME FROM THE
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE U.S. ARMY CORP OF
ENGINEERS...THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR...THE SOUTHEAST
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...DUKE ENERGY...SOUTH CAROLINA ENERGY AND
GAS...SANTEE COOPER AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.

MORE INFORMATION ON FLOODING CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB
ADDRESSES:

OTHER FLOODING INFORMATION:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAE UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES
ACROSS THE TOP MENU BAR.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS:
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK

FLOOD SAFETY:
WWW.FLOODSAFETY.NOAA.GOV/

                   ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE
CONTACT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2909 AVIATION WAY
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170
PHONE: 803-822-8135
INTERNET ADDRESS CAEWX@NOAA.GOV

LAMBERTY

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
