Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Louisville KY
1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...

This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the
Ohio River from Madison, Indiana to Tell City, Indiana.

The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is normal to below
normal for this time of year.  Minor flooding is expected due to
rainfall and thunderstorms with isolated moderate flooding possible.

This outlook is valid through May 2024.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Barren River
Bowling Green       28.0   32.0   45.0 :  10   11    5    8   <5   <5
:Blue River
Fredericksburg      20.0   24.0   27.0 :  24   25   13   13   <5   <5
:Cumberland River
Burkesville         46.0   55.0   64.0 :  15   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton             24.0   35.0   42.0 :  33   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill          10.0   12.0   14.0 :  30   33   20   21   13   14
:Green River
Munfordville        28.0   50.0   57.0 :   9   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mammoth Cave        32.0   57.0   62.0 :  <5   55   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rochester           37.0   45.0   50.0 :  54   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Woodbury            26.0   38.0   41.0 :  60   59    7   13   <5   <5
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock    30.0   36.0   40.0 :  17   22    7   16   <5   11
Frankfort Lock      31.0   35.0   40.0 :   8    8    6   <5   <5   <5
Ford Lock           26.0   35.0   40.0 :  14   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
High Bridge Lock    30.0   36.0   39.0 :   9   10    6   <5   <5   <5
Lockport Lock       33.0   43.0   49.0 :  18   20    6    6   <5   <5
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring   25.0   42.0   45.0 :  40   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy              25.0   28.0   32.0 :  19   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek       451.0  457.0  470.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cannelton Lock an   42.0   46.0   50.0 :  19   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Lower      55.0   65.0   73.0 :  11   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
McAlpine Upper      23.0   30.0   38.0 :  15   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tell City           38.0   44.0   50.0 :  42   49   <5    7   <5   <5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston              35.0   42.0   45.0 :  25   35    6   10   <5    7
:Rough River
Dundee              25.0   28.0   30.0 :  36   29   17   14   <5    5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville      32.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5    8   <5    6   <5   <5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana           20.0   22.0   23.0 :  14   17    8   11    6    8

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green        11.9   12.5   14.6   21.8   24.5   28.1   32.3
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        6.0    6.5    8.1   10.0   19.7   24.9   26.0
:Cumberland River
Burkesville          31.3   32.9   35.8   39.8   44.2   46.8   48.5
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton               8.8   10.1   12.1   20.5   25.5   29.5   30.6
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill            5.0    5.7    6.6    7.5   10.6   15.0   16.5
:Green River
Munfordville          9.9   10.7   13.1   15.3   19.3   26.6   35.0
Mammoth Cave         19.1   20.2   22.9   25.8   30.8   36.8   40.5
Rochester            33.4   34.3   35.7   37.2   39.7   42.0   44.8
Woodbury             15.8   19.4   23.4   27.7   31.0   36.3   38.9
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock     18.8   20.0   22.2   25.3   27.9   32.0   39.3
Frankfort Lock       12.0   12.3   13.4   17.8   21.7   27.7   36.4
Ford Lock            16.0   17.3   18.9   21.4   23.7   26.7   32.1
High Bridge Lock     15.9   16.8   18.0   21.0   23.6   27.8   37.5
Lockport Lock        15.7   16.6   18.3   25.1   27.5   39.9   43.8
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring    15.2   15.9   18.2   23.0   28.3   31.9   33.5
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy                8.6    9.3   12.6   19.0   23.6   27.3   27.7
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        429.6  432.0  436.1  440.7  444.1  448.2  449.9
Cannelton Lock an    24.9   28.0   33.6   37.9   41.2   43.3   43.6
McAlpine Lower       31.4   34.9   41.2   47.1   50.7   55.4   57.2
McAlpine Upper       12.7   13.5   16.5   18.0   20.5   24.4   26.2
Tell City            23.9   26.9   32.5   36.7   40.6   42.7   43.0
:Rolling Fork River
Boston               16.0   18.7   22.5   27.2   35.0   37.9   42.8
:Rough River
Dundee               16.6   17.3   19.2   22.4   27.0   28.8   29.5
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        5.2    6.0    7.3   10.2   18.2   25.2   26.2
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             7.5    8.5    9.5   12.6   16.4   21.2   23.4

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Barren River
Bowling Green         8.8    7.7    7.1    6.6    6.4    6.2    6.0
:Blue River
Fredericksburg        3.4    3.4    3.2    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.7
:Cumberland River
Burkesville          31.1   29.9   29.2   27.9   27.4   24.8   24.3
:Drakes Creek
Alvaton               4.7    4.5    4.5    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.1
:Elkhorn Creek
Peaks Mill            2.6    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.0
:Green River
Munfordville          4.3    4.1    3.8    3.5    3.2    3.1    2.9
Mammoth Cave         11.5   11.2   10.7   10.2    9.8    9.5    9.2
Rochester            30.1   29.8   29.2   28.8   28.5   28.3   28.1
Woodbury              7.4    6.8    5.2    4.4    3.9    3.6    3.4
:Kentucky River
Camp Nelson Lock     12.9   12.7   12.2   12.0   11.7   11.5   11.5
Frankfort Lock        7.7    7.6    7.2    7.1    7.0    6.8    6.8
Ford Lock            10.9   10.8   10.3   10.1    9.9    9.7    9.6
High Bridge Lock     10.0    9.9    9.5    9.2    9.0    8.8    8.7
Lockport Lock         9.7    9.5    8.9    8.7    8.5    8.3    8.3
:Licking River
Blue Licks Spring    10.1    7.9    6.4    5.6    4.8    4.5    4.4
:Muscatatuck River
Deputy                3.5    3.4    3.3    3.1    2.9    2.7    2.6
:Ohio River
Clifty Creek        422.2  422.1  421.7  421.3  421.1  421.0  420.9
Cannelton Lock an    14.4   14.0   12.8   12.2   11.6   11.3   11.2
McAlpine Lower       15.7   15.4   13.7   12.5   11.8   11.4   11.2
McAlpine Upper       12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5   12.5
Tell City            15.3   15.1   14.2   13.6   12.9   12.7   12.5
:Rolling Fork River
Boston                5.2    4.9    4.5    4.0    3.6    3.4    3.3
:Rough River
Dundee                7.7    7.1    6.1    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.6
:Salt River
Shepherdsville        2.0    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5
:South Fork Licking River
Cynthiana             4.7    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.2    4.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Since mid December, precipitation has been at or slightly below
normal and temperatures have been above normal across the region. As
of mid March, soil moisture was below normal. Streamflows were near
normal over central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Reservoir levels
were near or slightly above normal.

Over the next week, the weather pattern will feature one main weather
system bringing showers and storms to the area today through Friday.
Total precipitation over the next week should range from half an inch
to two inches.

The 8-14 day outlook which goes out through March 27 calls for
near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.  At this
time of year, normal temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s and
normal precipitation is around a quarter to one inch.

The outlook for late March to early April calls for near normal
temperatures and precipitation.  Normal temperatures for late March
are in the low 50s with normal precipitation between a quarter
to one inch.

The seasonal outlook for March through May indicates good
chances for above normal temperatures and precipitation.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at
www.cpc.noaa.gov.

Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.

Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.

Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl-
wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water
information.

This is the final hydro outlook for Spring 2024.

$$

AMS





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