Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
344 PM CDT WED MAR 22 2017

...Spring Flood Probabilities For Much of Central and Southern
Minnesota...and Western Wisconsin...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 03/26/2017 - 06/24/2017

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS        6.0   15.0   16.0 :  39   25   <5   <5   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM             11.0   13.0   16.0 :  53   32   27   18    5   10
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO          14.0   16.0   17.5 :  45   47   23   30    9   18
GRANITE FALLS      888.5  893.5  896.5 :   7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANKATO             22.0   25.0   30.0 :  10   14    5   10   <5   <5
HENDERSON          732.0  736.0  739.5 :  25   22    5   10   <5   <5
JORDAN              25.0   28.0   34.0 :  38   33   15   17   <5   <5
SAVAGE             702.0  710.0  712.0 :  70   61   10   15   <5    9
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE         7.0    8.0   10.0 :  12   26   <5    7   <5   <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD             6.0    7.0    9.0 :  10   21   <5   10   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER               11.0   15.0   16.0 :  28   33   <5   12   <5   10
DELANO              16.5   17.5   18.5 :  16   17    6   14   <5   12
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD            10.0   12.0   14.0 :  16   21    5   13   <5    8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  15   30    8   15   <5    6
MINNEAPOLIS         16.0   16.5   17.0 :  <5   10   <5    9   <5    8
ST PAUL             14.0   15.0   17.0 :  18   25   15   20    6   12
HASTINGS L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :  34   38   17   20   11   16
RED WING L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :  11   19   <5   17   <5    9
RED WING            14.0   15.0   16.0 :  10   18   <5   14   <5    9
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER          87.0   88.0   89.0 :   9   21   <5   14   <5   11
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK          11.0   14.0   17.0 :  21   30   11   18    8    7
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE         773.0  776.0  778.0 :  10   15   <5    8   <5    5
DURAND              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  24   43    9   14   <5    7


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 03/26/2017 - 06/24/2017
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         3.6    3.6    4.0    5.7    7.0    8.5   12.6
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               8.7    8.8    9.3   11.1   13.2   14.8   16.4
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO           10.4   10.7   11.5   13.6   15.8   17.3   18.7
GRANITE FALLS       883.4  883.5  883.8  884.4  886.0  887.5  889.0
MANKATO              11.7   12.1   13.7   16.1   19.9   22.0   25.8
HENDERSON           725.0  725.4  726.9  728.8  732.0  733.7  736.2
JORDAN               18.2   18.6   21.2   23.5   26.7   28.2   29.8
SAVAGE              698.5  698.6  701.0  704.0  708.0  710.2  710.8
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          4.2    4.3    5.1    5.7    6.5    7.1    7.5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              3.5    3.5    3.6    4.2    5.1    6.0    6.4
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 6.4    6.5    7.4    8.7   11.7   13.1   14.1
DELANO               11.1   11.2   12.2   13.5   15.9   17.0   17.6
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              5.0    5.1    5.6    7.0    9.1   10.7   12.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              6.7    6.7    7.0    7.9    8.3    9.7   10.5
MINNEAPOLIS           8.0    8.1    8.7   10.0   11.5   13.8   15.1
ST PAUL               6.8    7.0    8.2   10.1   13.3   16.4   17.1
HASTINGS L/D#2        9.7    9.9   11.3   13.3   16.1   18.1   18.6
RED WING L/D#3      674.1  674.3  675.5  676.5  678.7  680.8  681.5
RED WING              7.8    8.0    8.7    9.8   12.1   13.9   14.7
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           79.8   80.3   81.8   83.2   84.6   86.8   87.8
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            5.0    5.3    6.5    7.8    9.5   14.9   19.0
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          762.6  763.6  765.0  766.4  768.2  773.0  775.7
DURAND                7.2    7.9    9.2   10.9   12.6   15.4   16.3

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 03/26/2017 - 06/24/2017
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         2.4    2.4    2.2    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               4.2    3.8    3.3    2.8    2.4    2.2    2.2
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            8.6    6.8    5.8    4.4    3.7    3.3    3.1
GRANITE FALLS       882.7  882.3  882.0  881.4  881.0  880.8  880.7
MANKATO               7.9    7.2    5.6    4.6    3.8    3.2    2.9
HENDERSON           720.9  720.1  718.1  716.3  715.0  714.0  713.7
JORDAN               12.5   11.7    9.6    7.9    6.6    5.7    5.4
SAVAGE              694.5  692.9  689.2  688.4  687.7  687.4  687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          3.6    3.3    2.9    2.2    1.9    1.7    1.5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              3.3    3.1    2.5    2.2    1.9    1.6    1.5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 4.0    3.7    3.3    2.8    2.3    1.6    1.3
DELANO                8.6    8.2    7.7    7.0    6.4    5.7    5.5
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              4.0    3.9    3.5    3.1    2.8    2.4    2.3
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              6.1    5.8    5.4    5.1    4.7    4.5    4.4
MINNEAPOLIS           7.1    6.7    5.9    5.4    5.0    4.6    4.5
ST PAUL               5.7    5.1    4.0    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.2
HASTINGS L/D#2        8.4    7.5    6.2    5.5    4.8    4.5    4.5
RED WING L/D#3      673.1  672.4  671.1  669.7  668.2  667.1  667.0
RED WING              7.2    6.5    5.0    4.1    2.9    2.2    2.1
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           78.4   77.6   76.1   75.7   75.4   75.3   75.2
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            1.9    1.8    1.3    1.0    0.8    0.7    0.7
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          760.0  759.7  759.4  759.1  758.9  758.8  758.7
DURAND                4.3    4.0    3.3    2.9    2.5    2.3    2.2

Spring flood factors will be based on past precipitation...soil
moisture...snowpack...snow water runoff...frost depth...and forecast
snow and rainfall amounts in the next couple of months.

Our mild winter and dry February has resulted in a nearly
nonexistent snow pack for most of the area covered by this outlook.
Frost depth is below normal (shallower) or gone for most of the area
as well.

Soil moisture remains very high...due to much above normal
precipitation last fall and early winter. Months of saturated soils
have led to most of Minnesota and Wisconsin seeing historically high
streamflow for this time of year.

Therefore...the main flood threat will be determined by the
occurrences of heavy rain events in late March and April.

The next two weeks calls for above normal precipitation and above
normal temperatures. The seasonal spring outlooks continue this
trend...so we will be watching for heavy rainfall events to
potentially trigger flooding. Because of the lack of snow pack...the
chances of "high end" flooding have decreased since the earlier
outlooks February and early March.

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT

weather.gov/twincities  or
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=mpx

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE APRIL

$$



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