Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FGUS73 KOAX 052027
ESFOAX
NEC003-023-025-037-039-053-055-067-095-107-109-119-127-139-141-143-
147-151-153-155-159-167-173-IAC071-085-133-137-145-155-062027-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
227 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook #2...

This flood outlook is for the National Weather Service (NWS)
Omaha/Valley Hydrologic Services Area.  This area includes eastern
Nebraska and portions of southwest Iowa. It includes portions of
the following rivers and their tributaries.

Missouri River from Decatur to Rulo
Niobrara River from Verdel to the Missouri River
Big Blue River from Surprise to the Kansas border
Elkhorn River from Neligh to the Platte River confluence
Platte River from Duncan to the Missouri River confluence
Other tributaries to the Missouri River in Iowa and Nebraska

               ** Current Flood Outlook Highlights **

* The risk of flooding for the remainder of winter and into
mid-spring is near to below normal. Locally heavy spring rains will
cause flooding in localized areas as is the case every year. This
outlook is directed towards flooding on a larger scale.

* Current conditions are not conducive to major, large-scale
flooding.

* The threat for localized ice jam flooding is below normal.

* Graphics for select river gauges are available on our website at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=oax


.Overview: A meager snowpack, shallow frost depths and lack of
significant fall/winter precipitation all indicate a low threat for
large-scale spring flooding. With that said there is a conditional
threat for spring flooding along and south of the Platte River in
Nebraska and along and south of Interstate 80 in Iowa. In this area
soil moistures are much higher than normal. If persistent spring
rains were to occur, this area would more easily flood than others.

.Mountain Snowpack: The latest snow water equivalent observations
indicate the mountain snowpack is just below average for this time of
year for the Missouri River headwaters. By March 1st, normally 80% of
the peak water equivalent has accumulated. For the Platte River the
mountain snowpack is a little more below average with most basins
reporting 80-90% of normal.

.Plains Snowpack: Through March 5th, the Plains snowpack is meager at
best. In its current state, the snowmelt from what snow there is will
have no bearing on the spring flood threat.

.Ice Jam Threat: Several ice jams have already occurred this winter.
Most have been minor but some flooding of low-lying areas have
occurred. Along the usual ice jam prone rivers a majority of the ice
has already moved out with only frazil ice remaining. This ice could
still cause a minor ice jam,especially along the Platte and Elkhorn
rivers. Over the next week temperatures are expected rise well above
normal. This should allow any remaining ice to melt or move
downstream.

.Soil Moisture: Across the area soil moistures remain elevated due
to the heavy rains from last summer and early fall. This is
especially true along the south of the Platte River in Nebraska and
along and south of Interstate 80 in Iowa. These areas will be the
most susceptible to flooding this spring if persistent rains occur.

.Frost Depths: As of March 5,frost depths are around a foot deep
across the area. These values have increased since the last outlook.
Frost at this depth isn`t alarming and shouldn`t pose a significant
flood threat unless heavy rains were to fall onto the frozen ground
prior to the thaw.

.Current River Conditions: Due to remnant ice cover current flow
values are hard to come by across the area. What flow values are
available indicate area rivers are probably near normal. The Missouri
River is running slightly above normal, largely due to slightly above
normal releases from Gavins Point Dam.

.Climate Outlook for the next two weeks (through March 18th): There
is a 40 to 50% chance for temperatures to be above normal and a 33%
chance for precipitation to be near normal.

.Climate Outlook for March: The Climate Prediction Center predicts
a 33% chance for temperatures to be below normal. For precipitation
there is an equal chance of below, near or above normal conditions.

To follow are sections describing the threat for flooding for select
river basins.


             ***************************************
             * Missouri River from Decatur to Rulo *
             ***************************************

.Overview: As of March 5, the river continues to run slightly above
normal, largely due to the slightly above-normal releases from Gavins
Point Dam. While this doesn`t translate directly to increased flood
potential, starting at a higher point than normal does tilt the odds
that direction. With around 20% of the mountain snowpack still to
fall, a lot can change relative to the Missouri River flood
potential. Mountain snowpack in the headwaters of the Missouri
River,as of March 1, is 88% of average. At this point, it is safe to
say locations along the Missouri River, below the Platte River
confluence, have a greater than normal chance for at least reaching
minor flood stage this spring.

                      Average                 Recent Streamflow
                    Streamflow    Long-term      as a % of
                   Past 14 Days   mean flow    long-term mean
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Missouri River:
  at Decatur          21,179       19,500         109%
  at Omaha            22,514       22,400         101%
  at Nebraska City    31,025       31,100         100%
  at Rulo             31,070       34,400          89%


                           ******************
                           * Niobrara River *
                           ******************

                           Chance of Reaching
                              Flood Stage           Chance of
                          Compared to Normal      Minor Flooding
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Niobrara River:
  at Verdel                  Near Normal             <5%

Ponca Creek:
  at Verdel                   12% Less                6%


                         ************************
                         * Big Blue River Basin *
                         ************************

                          Chance of Reaching
                             Flood Stage            Chance of
                          Compared to Normal      Minor Flooding
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Big Blue River:
  at Surprise                   3% Less               13%
  at Seward                     1% Less               16%
  at Crete                      8% Less               28%
  at Beatrice                  14% Less                8%
  at Barneston                  3% Less               12%

Lincoln Creek:
  at Seward                     1% Less               26%

W Fk Big Blue River:
  at Dorchester                11% Less               19%

Turkey Creek:
  at Wilber                     9% Less               32%

Little Blue River
  at Deweese                    2% Less               14%
  at Fairbury                   2% Greater             7%


                         ***********************
                         * Elkhorn River Basin *
                         ***********************

.Overview: Some intact ice cover remains along the Elkhorn River,
though much of this ice is not thick enough to create ice jam
concerns. While the overall ice jam threat is low, a small ice jam
should not be ruled out until all the ice has melted to moved
downstream. Any ice should move out or melt this coming week when
temperatures rise well above normal.

                          Chance of Reaching
                             Flood Stage             Chance of
                          Compared to Normal      Minor Flooding
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Elkhorn River:
  at Neligh                   Near Normal             <5%
  at Norfolk                  Near Normal             <5%
  at Pilger                   Near Normal             <5%
  at West Point               Near Normal             <5%
  at Winslow                  Near Normal             <5%
  at Waterloo                 Near Normal             <5%

N Fk Elkhorn River:
  at Pierce                    4% Less                <5%

Maple Creek:
  at Nickerson                 7% Less                 5%

Logan Creek:
  at Uehling                  Near Normal             <5%


                         **********************
                         * Platte River Basin *
                         **********************

.Overview: For the lower Platte River, a small threat for ice jams
does remain. During the week of January 26th a majority of the intact
ice cover moved through the Platte River system, largely due to
increased flows from the Loup River. This ice movement did result in
a fairly significant ice jam near the Two Rivers State Park
Recreation Area. On January 29th the ice jam released on its own.
Though most of the thicker ice moved out in late January, some ice
does remain in the river, though it is not very thick. A substantial
warm-up is expected this week, and all ice should move out of the
Platte River. Any ice jams that occur do to this ice movement are
expected to be minor if they occur at all.


                           Chance of Reaching
                              Flood Stage           Chance of
                          Compared to Normal      Minor Flooding
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Platte River:
  at Duncan                     2% Less               <5%
  at North Bend                12% Less                6%
  at Leshara                   16% Less               10%
  at Ashland                   23% Less               <5%
  at Louisville                17% Less                7%

Shell Creek:
  at Columbus                 Near Normal              5%

Salt Creek:
  at Roca                       5% Less                7%
  at Lincoln                    1% Less                8%
  at Greenwood                  2% Less               16%
  at Ashland                    1% Greater            38%

Wahoo Creek:
 at Ithaca                     3% Greater             39%


                *******************************************
                * Other tributaries to the Missouri River *
                *******************************************

                                 Chance of Reaching
                                     Flood Stage        Chance of
                                 Compared to Normal   Minor Flooding
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Maple River at Mapleton             Near Normal           <5%
Little Sioux River at Turin          2% Greater            9%
Soldier River at Pisgah             Near Normal           <5%
Boyer River at Logan                 4% Greater           11%
Weeping Water Creek at Union         4% Less              13%

Nishnabotna River:
  East Nishnabotna at Red Oak       12% Less              25%
  West Nishnabotna at Hancock       10% Less              26%
  West Nishnabotna at Randolph       6% Less              27%
  Nishnabotna at Hamburg            23% Less              26%

Little Nemaha River at Auburn        4% Less              13%
N Fk Big Nemaha River at Humboldt   Near Normal           <5%
Big Nemaha River at Falls City       7% Less              <5%
Nodaway River at Clarinda           Near Normal           <5%


To follow are three tables which provide more detailed information
about the flooding threat this spring.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Niobrara River
Verdel               7.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ponca Creek
Verdel              12.0   15.0   17.0 :   6   18   <5    7   <5   <5
:Elkhorn River
Neligh              11.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Norfolk             12.0   13.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Fork Elkhorn River
Pierce              12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elkhorn River
Pilger              12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
West Point          12.0   16.0   18.7 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winslow             18.0   20.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Logan Creek
Uehling             18.0   19.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Maple Creek
Nickerson           11.5   13.0   17.0 :  <5   12   <5    6   <5   <5
:Elkhorn River
Waterloo            17.0   18.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Duncan               8.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Shell Creek
Columbus            20.0   21.0   22.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
North Bend           8.0   12.0   15.0 :   6   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
Leshara              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  10   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
Ashland             20.0   22.0   26.0 :  <5   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Salt Creek
Roca                19.0   23.0   26.0 :   7   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lincoln             20.5   26.5   33.0 :   8    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Greenwood           20.0   24.0   27.0 :  16   18    7    7    5   <5
:Wahoo Creek
Ithaca              19.0   22.0   23.0 :  39   36   15    9   <5   <5
:Salt Creek
Ashland             16.0   20.0   23.0 :  38   37   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Louisville           9.0   11.0   12.0 :   7   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Blue River
Surprise             7.0   10.0   12.0 :  13   16    5   <5   <5   <5
:Lincoln Creek
Seward              15.0   17.0   20.0 :  26   27   12   10   <5   <5
:Big Blue River
Seward              18.0   22.0   27.0 :  16   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Fork Big Blue River
Dorchester          15.0   22.0   24.4 :  19   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Blue River
Crete               21.0   25.0   29.0 :  28   36    7   10   <5   <5
:Turkey Creek
Wilber              12.5   16.0   21.0 :  32   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Blue River
Beatrice            18.0   26.0   32.0 :   8   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
Barneston           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  12   15   <5    6   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Fairbury            18.5   20.0   26.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Maple River
Mapleton            21.0   24.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Sioux River
Turin               25.0   28.0   34.5 :   9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Soldier River
Pisgah              28.0   29.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boyer River
Logan               19.0   22.0   25.0 :  11    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Weeping Water Creek
Union               25.0   28.0   30.0 :  13   17   <5    6   <5   <5
:East Nishnabotna River
Red Oak             18.0   22.0   27.0 :  25   37    7   14   <5   <5
:West Nishnabotna River
Hancock             14.0   19.0   23.0 :  26   36   15   15   <5    7
Randolph            19.0   22.0   24.0 :  27   33   12    8   <5   <5
:Nishnabotna River
Hamburg             25.0   27.0   33.0 :  26   49   18   30   <5   <5
:Little Nemaha River
Auburn              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  13   17    6   15   <5   <5
:North Fork Big Nemaha River
Humboldt            28.0   29.5   31.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Nemaha River
Falls City          27.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Nodaway River
Clarinda            23.0   26.0   29.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Niobrara River
Verdel                3.0    3.1    3.2    3.5    3.8    4.1    4.8
:Ponca Creek
Verdel                4.3    4.6    5.3    7.1    8.7   10.6   12.6
:Elkhorn River
Neligh                1.9    2.0    4.2    5.1    5.9    7.0    8.1
Norfolk               2.2    2.3    3.0    3.9    4.4    5.5    6.9
:North Fork Elkhorn River
Pierce                2.7    2.8    3.2    5.4    7.4    9.2   10.5
:Elkhorn River
Pilger                7.1    7.2    7.9    8.4    9.2    9.8   10.6
West Point            6.6    7.0    7.4    8.2    9.5   10.6   10.9
Winslow               8.2    8.8    9.9   11.3   13.3   15.0   15.9
:Logan Creek
Uehling               2.7    3.4    4.6    7.1    9.6   12.9   13.4
:Maple Creek
Nickerson             1.0    2.9    5.7    6.9    8.2    9.7    9.9
:Elkhorn River
Waterloo              2.8    3.5    5.6    7.1    9.6   11.7   14.1
:Platte River
Duncan                4.4    4.4    4.6    4.9    5.6    7.0    7.6
:Shell Creek
Columbus              0.6    0.6    1.6    7.6   15.2   18.3   19.3
:Platte River
North Bend            4.6    4.6    5.0    5.8    7.0    7.7    8.1
Leshara               4.7    4.8    5.2    6.2    7.4    8.1    8.5
Ashland              17.2   17.2   17.5   18.2   19.0   19.8   19.9
:Salt Creek
Roca                  1.9    2.4    3.7    6.0   12.5   18.9   19.6
Lincoln               3.0    3.2    4.6   10.4   15.4   19.0   24.6
Greenwood             3.5    4.2    6.2   11.2   18.4   22.7   26.9
:Wahoo Creek
Ithaca                4.9    5.7    8.6   12.9   21.5   22.1   22.6
:Salt Creek
Ashland               7.4    8.3    9.6   13.1   17.6   18.4   19.7
:Platte River
Louisville            3.9    4.0    4.8    6.1    7.6    8.6    9.2
:Big Blue River
Surprise              1.3    1.8    2.5    3.1    4.8    8.7   10.0
:Lincoln Creek
Seward                3.9    4.7    8.8   12.2   15.2   17.3   18.3
:Big Blue River
Seward                1.7    2.5    5.2   10.4   16.9   20.4   22.0
:West Fork Big Blue River
Dorchester            3.4    3.9    5.9   10.1   14.0   19.2   20.5
:Big Blue River
Crete                 7.8    8.4   11.1   17.4   21.6   24.1   27.4
:Turkey Creek
Wilber                1.3    3.9    6.9   10.8   13.0   15.1   15.7
:Big Blue River
Beatrice              3.9    4.5    7.0   11.4   15.2   17.6   21.4
Barneston             3.7    5.2    9.3   13.3   16.6   21.3   24.7
:Little Blue River
Fairbury              7.7    9.0   10.7   13.3   16.1   17.0   19.7
:Maple River
Mapleton              8.3    8.5   10.1   12.0   14.5   18.8   19.2
:Little Sioux River
Turin                10.3   10.9   12.0   16.1   19.0   23.4   25.9
:Soldier River
Pisgah                4.2    5.2    6.4    8.2    9.8   11.1   12.0
:Boyer River
Logan                 5.1    6.6    8.2   10.0   14.1   19.2   20.2
:Weeping Water Creek
Union                 3.4    4.4    6.8    9.6   18.1   26.6   27.2
:East Nishnabotna River
Red Oak               6.4    7.2   10.5   12.8   18.1   21.3   23.5
:West Nishnabotna River
Hancock               4.0    5.6    7.4    8.7   14.3   20.4   22.1
Randolph              8.5    9.8   12.7   15.0   19.9   22.2   23.0
:Nishnabotna River
Hamburg               9.4   10.9   16.5   20.0   25.2   28.1   28.6
:Little Nemaha River
Auburn                2.6    5.7    9.1   11.5   17.1   22.5   23.5
:North Fork Big Nemaha River
Humboldt              2.0    4.0    6.3    8.2   11.8   15.1   17.5
:Big Nemaha River
Falls City            3.9    6.3   10.4   13.6   19.3   22.1   25.0
:Nodaway River
Clarinda             10.6   11.2   12.1   13.3   17.2   20.1   21.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Niobrara River
Verdel                3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9
:Ponca Creek
Verdel                4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    3.5    3.5    3.5
:Elkhorn River
Neligh                1.7    1.3    0.9    0.7    0.6    0.5    0.5
Norfolk               2.1    2.1    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North Fork Elkhorn River
Pierce                2.6    2.6    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0
:Elkhorn River
Pilger                7.0    7.0    6.9    6.6    6.4    6.2    6.2
West Point            6.3    6.2    6.1    5.7    5.4    5.2    5.2
Winslow               7.7    7.7    7.5    7.0    6.7    6.7    6.7
:Logan Creek
Uehling               2.5    2.4    2.4    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1
:Maple Creek
Nickerson             1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Elkhorn River
Waterloo              2.3    2.3    2.2    1.9    1.6    1.4    1.4
:Platte River
Duncan                3.9    3.7    3.3    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0
:Shell Creek
Columbus              0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.5    0.5    0.5
:Platte River
North Bend            3.6    3.6    3.1    3.0    2.7    2.6    2.5
Leshara               4.2    4.2    4.0    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.2
Ashland              16.9   16.9   16.7   16.6   16.5   16.5   16.4
:Salt Creek
Roca                  1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Lincoln               2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5
Greenwood             2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6
:Wahoo Creek
Ithaca                3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6
:Salt Creek
Ashland               6.6    6.6    6.6    6.6    6.5    6.4    6.4
:Platte River
Louisville            3.3    3.3    3.1    2.7    2.4    2.1    2.1
:Big Blue River
Surprise              1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Lincoln Creek
Seward                3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.7
:Big Blue River
Seward                1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.3
:West Fork Big Blue River
Dorchester            2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.6
:Big Blue River
Crete                 7.0    7.0    6.9    6.9    6.8    6.7    6.7
:Turkey Creek
Wilber                1.3    1.3    1.1    0.9    0.7    0.3    0.3
:Big Blue River
Beatrice              3.4    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1
Barneston             3.0    2.9    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5
:Little Blue River
Fairbury              7.7    7.7    7.7    7.6    7.6    7.5    7.5
:Maple River
Mapleton              5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.7
:Little Sioux River
Turin                 8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.3    8.2
:Soldier River
Pisgah                3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1
:Boyer River
Logan                 3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2
:Weeping Water Creek
Union                 2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:East Nishnabotna River
Red Oak               5.8    5.8    5.8    5.7    5.7    5.6    5.5
:West Nishnabotna River
Hancock               1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8
Randolph              7.7    7.7    7.6    7.4    7.2    6.8    6.7
:Nishnabotna River
Hamburg               8.5    8.4    8.4    8.2    8.0    7.5    7.4
:Little Nemaha River
Auburn                2.6    2.6    2.6    2.2    2.2    1.8    1.7
:North Fork Big Nemaha River
Humboldt              2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Big Nemaha River
Falls City            3.8    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5
:Nodaway River
Clarinda             10.6   10.6   10.6   10.5   10.5   10.5   10.5


These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/oax for more weather and water
information.

Question regarding this outlook should be directed to:

David Pearson
National Weather Service Omaha
Senior Service Hydrologist
david.pearson@noaa.gov
402-359-5732

$$






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