Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1249 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE CONSIDERED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE STREAMS IN THE CHARLESTON
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS
WIDESPREAD FLOODING COU8LD OCCUR. THIS AREA INCLUDES EASTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDRO
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING
FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS...REALIZING THAT ACTUAL CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE DURING
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE:

WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK...THE WETNESS OF THE
SOILS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL...HIGH STREAMFLOWS...AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE RIVERS.

PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION WAS 100 TO 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PAST 30
DAYS OVER MUCH OF THE HSA.


SOIL CONDITIONS...
SOILS ARE MOIST. THIS CAN CAUSE EFFICIENT RUNOFF FROM ANY FUTURE
RAIN.


SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION.


RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...
NO RIVER ICE IS PRESENT.


RIVER FLOWS...
RIVER FLOWS HAVE AVERAGED NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON ALL
RIVERS.


THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...
AS WE ENTER METEOROLOGICAL SPRING...THE FORECAST IS FOR A WETTER
THAN NORMAL PERIOD OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN AS THE AREA IS AFFECTED BY PRIMARILY SOUTHERN STREAM
WEATHER SYSTEMS.


REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
ALONG RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUCHANAN
AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA CAN BE FOUND AT (ALL IN LOWERCASE):
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RLX


RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO FLOODING. HEAVY OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR EVEN
WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

$$



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