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Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
000
FGUS65 KSTR 072001
ESGCO
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
May 7, 2013
Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: Yampa - Deerlodge Park
Comments:
This outlook is based on flows from ESP with models states and snow
conditions as of May 7.
The first week of May was a mix of weather conditions.
A cold front brought below normal temperatures for the
first three days followed by warming trend with near to
slightly above normal temperatures. Current month to date
precipitation is near 65 percent of average over the basin
as a whole with some locations in the extreme headwaters above average.
As a result of the warm temperatures in late April and May,
significant snowmelt has ocurred at low and middle elevations
with only minor amounts of snow remaining below 9,500 feet. No
significant melt has currently been observed above 10,000 feet.
Current snow water equivalent as of May 7 is 85 percent of average
as a whole and is still near 79 percent of average at the Tower
SNOTEL located at 10,500 feet.
A slow moving closed low pressure system currently over
southern California will bring unsettled weather to the basin
through Friday. This low pressure system will bring a moist unstable airmass
to the region with showers and thunderstorms expected through Thursday.
Current guidance suggests freezing levels will be near 9000 feet during
the event which will result in only minor snow accumulations at only the
highest elevations. Due to the convective nature of this system,
confidence is somewhat low in amounts and areal coverage of
forecasted precipitation. Isolated heavy rain is possible.
Cloud cover and showers should keep temperatures on the mild
side through Friday and temporary slow down snow melt.
After the low pressure system moves out of the region on Friday, current
meteorological guidance is suggesting a warming trend with the chance
for continued isolated showers over the highest elevations through
the weekend. Above normal temperatures can be expected by early
next week a ridge of high pressure builds.
Current observed streamflow at Deerlodge is forecast to rise from the current
flow of ~3500 cfs near ~5500 cfs on 5/11 followed by a minor decrease and a
continued rise to ~6000 cfs at the end of the forecast period on 5/17.
The current short term forecasted rises are a result of snowmelt and forecasted
precipitation. If heavy isolated precipitation occurs over any of the sub basins,
forecasted rises may be higher.
Short term streamflow forecasts and the long lead peak outlook guidance are
beginning to converge. Long lead guidance is suggesting the 90 and 75 percent
exceedance probabilities will be observed in the next 10 days which is consistent
with the current daily forecast. The model is still suggesting that there is
ample high elevation snow for the mean daily peak to occur in
early June; however, the daily forecasts and long lead guidance
should be monitored closely from now until the peak is observed.
The current mean daily peak for the April-July period for the
Yampa at Deerlodge was 4,410 cfs on 5/2.
Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum
# ESP Forecast Information
#
# Analysis Period: 5/7/2013 - 08/1/2013 (MST)
# Forecast Parameters: River Discharge
# Forecast Interval: 5/7/2013 - 08/1/2013 (MST)
# Forecast Point: Yampa - Deerlodge Park
#
# Yampa - Deerlodge Park
# Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
6840 7730 8500 9700 10840 CFSD
Number of Days to Peak from: 5/7/2013
#
# Yampa - Deerlodge Park
# Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 10 27 32 37 DAYS
Number of Days Above 10,000 cfs
#
# Yampa - Deerlodge Park
# Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 0 0 0 1 DAYS
Number of Days Above 14,000 cfs
#
# Yampa - Deerlodge Park
# Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 0 0 0 0 DAYS
1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight:
# Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Interval: 05/30/2013 - 06/06/2013 5710 6430 7230 8680 9850 CFSD
# Interval: 05/31/2013 - 06/07/2013 5780 6690 7230 8680 9870 CFSD
# Interval: 06/01/2013 - 06/08/2013 6340 6690 7420 8520 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/02/2013 - 06/09/2013 6390 6690 7310 8520 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/03/2013 - 06/10/2013 6150 6690 7230 8520 9890 CFSD
2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight:
# Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Interval: 05/28/2013 - 06/11/2013 6620 7110 7800 8700 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/29/2013 - 06/12/2013 6620 7110 7850 8700 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/30/2013 - 06/13/2013 6620 7020 7880 8700 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/31/2013 - 06/14/2013 6620 7040 7850 8700 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/01/2013 - 06/15/2013 6490 6960 7850 8580 9890 CFSD
1-week Seasonal Peak Flow:
# ESP Forecast Information
#
# Analysis Period:
5/7/2013 - 8/1/2013 (MST))
# Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD)
# Forecast Interval: 1 week
# Forecast Point: Yampa - Deerlodge Park
#
# Yampa - Deerlodge Park
# Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Interval: 05/07/2013 - 05/14/2013 5400 5440 5460 5550 6040 CFSD
# Interval: 05/08/2013 - 05/15/2013 5770 5860 6130 6480 8900 CFSD
# Interval: 05/09/2013 - 05/16/2013 6010 6230 6510 7670 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/10/2013 - 05/17/2013 6080 6280 6810 7740 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/11/2013 - 05/18/2013 6080 6280 6830 7740 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/12/2013 - 05/19/2013 6080 6280 6910 7970 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/13/2013 - 05/20/2013 6090 6330 6910 7970 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/14/2013 - 05/21/2013 6090 6330 6920 7970 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/15/2013 - 05/22/2013 6090 6390 6920 7970 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/16/2013 - 05/23/2013 6090 6560 6960 7920 9370 CFSD
# Interval: 05/17/2013 - 05/24/2013 6180 6610 6910 7730 8440 CFSD
# Interval: 05/18/2013 - 05/25/2013 5980 6250 6740 7710 8110 CFSD
# Interval: 05/19/2013 - 05/26/2013 5800 6250 6750 7560 8270 CFSD
# Interval: 05/20/2013 - 05/27/2013 5750 6210 6740 7050 8170 CFSD
# Interval: 05/21/2013 - 05/28/2013 5540 6080 6720 7050 8170 CFSD
# Interval: 05/22/2013 - 05/29/2013 5490 6080 6630 7140 8320 CFSD
# Interval: 05/23/2013 - 05/30/2013 5470 6080 6830 7640 8440 CFSD
# Interval: 05/24/2013 - 05/31/2013 5230 6080 6770 8050 8850 CFSD
# Interval: 05/25/2013 - 06/01/2013 5570 5910 6750 8370 9200 CFSD
# Interval: 05/26/2013 - 06/02/2013 5630 6100 6840 8370 9600 CFSD
# Interval: 05/27/2013 - 06/03/2013 5630 6290 7060 8450 9600 CFSD
# Interval: 05/28/2013 - 06/04/2013 5630 6010 7160 8540 9630 CFSD
# Interval: 05/29/2013 - 06/05/2013 5640 6400 7180 8570 9850 CFSD
# Interval: 05/30/2013 - 06/06/2013 5710 6430 7230 8680 9850 CFSD
# Interval: 05/31/2013 - 06/07/2013 5780 6690 7230 8680 9870 CFSD
# Interval: 06/01/2013 - 06/08/2013 6340 6690 7420 8520 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/02/2013 - 06/09/2013 6390 6690 7310 8520 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/03/2013 - 06/10/2013 6150 6690 7230 8520 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/04/2013 - 06/11/2013 6150 6760 7230 8520 9660 CFSD
# Interval: 06/05/2013 - 06/12/2013 6010 6690 7200 8120 9660 CFSD
# Interval: 06/06/2013 - 06/13/2013 6070 6600 7160 8000 9660 CFSD
# Interval: 06/07/2013 - 06/14/2013 5720 6110 7030 7970 9660 CFSD
# Interval: 06/08/2013 - 06/15/2013 5230 6030 6740 8010 9660 CFSD
# Interval: 06/09/2013 - 06/16/2013 5180 5850 6690 8000 9310 CFSD
# Interval: 06/10/2013 - 06/17/2013 4900 5730 6690 8030 8910 CFSD
# Interval: 06/11/2013 - 06/18/2013 4480 5570 6690 7850 8870 CFSD
# Interval: 06/12/2013 - 06/19/2013 4400 5700 6240 7790 8560 CFSD
# Interval: 06/13/2013 - 06/20/2013 4380 5100 6160 7220 8610 CFSD
# Interval: 06/14/2013 - 06/21/2013 4070 4830 5730 6950 8610 CFSD
# Interval: 06/15/2013 - 06/22/2013 3810 4230 5220 6690 8510 CFSD
# Interval: 06/16/2013 - 06/23/2013 3570 3990 5070 6170 7360 CFSD
# Interval: 06/17/2013 - 06/24/2013 3280 3770 4850 5690 7280 CFSD
# Interval: 06/18/2013 - 06/25/2013 3140 3590 4740 5270 7260 CFSD
# Interval: 06/19/2013 - 06/26/2013 2960 3460 4430 4910 6780 CFSD
# Interval: 06/20/2013 - 06/27/2013 2720 3290 4160 4730 5900 CFSD
# Interval: 06/21/2013 - 06/28/2013 2570 2990 3970 4550 5520 CFSD
# Interval: 06/22/2013 - 06/29/2013 2350 2780 3730 4320 5420 CFSD
# Interval: 06/23/2013 - 06/30/2013 2150 2700 3470 4300 5150 CFSD
# Interval: 06/24/2013 - 07/01/2013 1970 2500 3210 4040 4820 CFSD
# Interval: 06/25/2013 - 07/02/2013 1780 2340 3000 3730 4520 CFSD
# Interval: 06/26/2013 - 07/03/2013 1590 2140 2910 3300 4330 CFSD
# Interval: 06/27/2013 - 07/04/2013 1460 1850 2720 3040 4160 CFSD
# Interval: 06/28/2013 - 07/05/2013 1320 1740 2560 2940 4150 CFSD
# Interval: 06/29/2013 - 07/06/2013 1200 1590 2390 2740 3840 CFSD
# Interval: 06/30/2013 - 07/07/2013 1090 1460 2220 2500 3700 CFSD
# Interval: 07/01/2013 - 07/08/2013 1020 1410 1990 2290 3260 CFSD
# Interval: 07/02/2013 - 07/09/2013 960 1230 1870 2200 3090 CFSD
# Interval: 07/03/2013 - 07/10/2013 900 1140 1640 1990 2860 CFSD
# Interval: 07/04/2013 - 07/11/2013 820 1050 1550 1880 2600 CFSD
# Interval: 07/05/2013 - 07/12/2013 820 1040 1460 1820 2490 CFSD
# Interval: 07/06/2013 - 07/13/2013 770 1010 1320 1680 2380 CFSD
# Interval: 07/07/2013 - 07/14/2013 710 860 1220 1440 2210 CFSD
# Interval: 07/08/2013 - 07/15/2013 670 800 1150 1330 2160 CFSD
# Interval: 07/09/2013 - 07/16/2013 640 760 1050 1210 2050 CFSD
# Interval: 07/10/2013 - 07/17/2013 610 720 960 1130 1840 CFSD
# Interval: 07/11/2013 - 07/18/2013 590 670 890 1070 1690 CFSD
# Interval: 07/12/2013 - 07/19/2013 570 640 880 1030 1590 CFSD
# Interval: 07/13/2013 - 07/20/2013 550 640 820 1010 1450 CFSD
# Interval: 07/14/2013 - 07/21/2013 510 580 780 880 1430 CFSD
# Interval: 07/15/2013 - 07/22/2013 490 570 740 850 1320 CFSD
# Interval: 07/16/2013 - 07/23/2013 480 550 710 790 1210 CFSD
# Interval: 07/17/2013 - 07/24/2013 460 530 670 760 1020 CFSD
# Interval: 07/18/2013 - 07/25/2013 450 510 640 730 950 CFSD
# Interval: 07/19/2013 - 07/26/2013 430 480 610 690 890 CFSD
# Interval: 07/20/2013 - 07/27/2013 410 490 590 650 830 CFSD
# Interval: 07/21/2013 - 07/28/2013 400 470 560 620 780 CFSD
# Interval: 07/22/2013 - 07/29/2013 390 450 540 590 760 CFSD
# Interval: 07/23/2013 - 07/30/2013 380 440 510 560 760 CFSD
# Interval: 07/24/2013 - 07/31/2013 370 430 490 550 760 CFSD
# Interval: 07/25/2013 - 08/01/2013 360 410 470 570 760 CFSD
2-week Seasonal Peak Flow:
# ESP Forecast Information
#
# Analysis Period:
5/7/2013 - 8/1/2013 (MST)
# Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD)
# Forecast Interval: 2 week
# Forecast Point: Yampa - Deerlodge Park
#
# Yampa - Deerlodge Park
# Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Interval: 05/07/2013 - 05/21/2013 6090 6330 6920 7970 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/08/2013 - 05/22/2013 6090 6390 6920 7970 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/09/2013 - 05/23/2013 6090 6560 6960 7970 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/10/2013 - 05/24/2013 6180 6610 6990 7970 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/11/2013 - 05/25/2013 6180 6610 6990 8240 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/12/2013 - 05/26/2013 6180 6660 6990 8490 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/13/2013 - 05/27/2013 6180 6720 7170 8490 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/14/2013 - 05/28/2013 6180 6720 7170 8490 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/15/2013 - 05/29/2013 6180 6720 7170 8510 9640 CFSD
# Interval: 05/16/2013 - 05/30/2013 6180 6720 7420 8510 9680 CFSD
# Interval: 05/17/2013 - 05/31/2013 6180 6720 7610 8370 9010 CFSD
# Interval: 05/18/2013 - 06/01/2013 5990 6680 7310 8370 9200 CFSD
# Interval: 05/19/2013 - 06/02/2013 6090 6710 7150 8370 9600 CFSD
# Interval: 05/20/2013 - 06/03/2013 5810 6650 7130 8450 9600 CFSD
# Interval: 05/21/2013 - 06/04/2013 5810 6710 7180 8540 9630 CFSD
# Interval: 05/22/2013 - 06/05/2013 5800 6710 7400 8570 9850 CFSD
# Interval: 05/23/2013 - 06/06/2013 5810 6710 7490 8680 9850 CFSD
# Interval: 05/24/2013 - 06/07/2013 6390 6810 7490 8680 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/25/2013 - 06/08/2013 6490 6830 7670 8680 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/26/2013 - 06/09/2013 6620 6970 7750 8680 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/27/2013 - 06/10/2013 6620 6990 7800 8700 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/28/2013 - 06/11/2013 6620 7110 7800 8700 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/29/2013 - 06/12/2013 6620 7110 7850 8700 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/30/2013 - 06/13/2013 6620 7020 7880 8700 9910 CFSD
# Interval: 05/31/2013 - 06/14/2013 6620 7040 7850 8700 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/01/2013 - 06/15/2013 6490 6960 7850 8580 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/02/2013 - 06/16/2013 6490 6960 7780 8580 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/03/2013 - 06/17/2013 6150 6960 7670 8660 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/04/2013 - 06/18/2013 6150 6760 7670 8690 9660 CFSD
# Interval: 06/05/2013 - 06/19/2013 6090 6690 7500 8340 9660 CFSD
# Interval: 06/06/2013 - 06/20/2013 6090 6650 7200 8450 9660 CFSD
# Interval: 06/07/2013 - 06/21/2013 5960 6300 7090 8450 9930 CFSD
# Interval: 06/08/2013 - 06/22/2013 5700 6080 6910 8450 9930 CFSD
# Interval: 06/09/2013 - 06/23/2013 5540 6010 6870 8450 9890 CFSD
# Interval: 06/10/2013 - 06/24/2013 5140 5810 6870 8450 9030 CFSD
# Interval: 06/11/2013 - 06/25/2013 4480 5730 6730 8030 8970 CFSD
# Interval: 06/12/2013 - 06/26/2013 4400 5700 6370 7910 8940 CFSD
# Interval: 06/13/2013 - 06/27/2013 4380 5100 6160 7220 8940 CFSD
# Interval: 06/14/2013 - 06/28/2013 4070 4830 5730 6950 8610 CFSD
# Interval: 06/15/2013 - 06/29/2013 3810 4230 5220 6690 8510 CFSD
# Interval: 06/16/2013 - 06/30/2013 3570 3990 5070 6170 7360 CFSD
# Interval: 06/17/2013 - 07/01/2013 3280 3770 4850 5690 7280 CFSD
# Interval: 06/18/2013 - 07/02/2013 3140 3590 4740 5270 7260 CFSD
# Interval: 06/19/2013 - 07/03/2013 2960 3460 4430 4910 6780 CFSD
# Interval: 06/20/2013 - 07/04/2013 2720 3290 4160 4730 5900 CFSD
# Interval: 06/21/2013 - 07/05/2013 2570 2990 3970 4550 5520 CFSD
# Interval: 06/22/2013 - 07/06/2013 2350 2780 3730 4320 5420 CFSD
# Interval: 06/23/2013 - 07/07/2013 2150 2700 3470 4300 5150 CFSD
# Interval: 06/24/2013 - 07/08/2013 1970 2500 3210 4040 4820 CFSD
# Interval: 06/25/2013 - 07/09/2013 1780 2340 3000 3730 4520 CFSD
# Interval: 06/26/2013 - 07/10/2013 1590 2140 2910 3300 4330 CFSD
# Interval: 06/27/2013 - 07/11/2013 1460 1850 2720 3040 4160 CFSD
# Interval: 06/28/2013 - 07/12/2013 1320 1740 2560 2940 4150 CFSD
# Interval: 06/29/2013 - 07/13/2013 1200 1590 2390 2740 3840 CFSD
# Interval: 06/30/2013 - 07/14/2013 1090 1460 2220 2500 3700 CFSD
# Interval: 07/01/2013 - 07/15/2013 1020 1410 1990 2290 3260 CFSD
# Interval: 07/02/2013 - 07/16/2013 960 1230 1870 2200 3090 CFSD
# Interval: 07/03/2013 - 07/17/2013 900 1140 1640 1990 2860 CFSD
# Interval: 07/04/2013 - 07/18/2013 820 1050 1550 1880 2600 CFSD
# Interval: 07/05/2013 - 07/19/2013 820 1040 1460 1820 2490 CFSD
# Interval: 07/06/2013 - 07/20/2013 770 1010 1320 1680 2380 CFSD
# Interval: 07/07/2013 - 07/21/2013 710 860 1220 1450 2210 CFSD
# Interval: 07/08/2013 - 07/22/2013 670 800 1150 1350 2160 CFSD
# Interval: 07/09/2013 - 07/23/2013 640 760 1050 1210 2050 CFSD
# Interval: 07/10/2013 - 07/24/2013 610 720 960 1130 1840 CFSD
# Interval: 07/11/2013 - 07/25/2013 590 670 890 1070 1690 CFSD
# Interval: 07/12/2013 - 07/26/2013 570 640 880 1030 1590 CFSD
# Interval: 07/13/2013 - 07/27/2013 550 640 820 1010 1450 CFSD
# Interval: 07/14/2013 - 07/28/2013 510 580 780 880 1430 CFSD
# Interval: 07/15/2013 - 07/29/2013 490 570 760 850 1320 CFSD
# Interval: 07/16/2013 - 07/30/2013 480 550 730 790 1210 CFSD
# Interval: 07/17/2013 - 07/31/2013 460 540 690 760 1020 CFSD
# Interval: 07/18/2013 - 08/01/2013 450 540 640 750 950 CFSD
This product will be updated weekly until the peak flow is observed.
Please contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov with any questions.
Issued by:
A.Nielson
NNNN
$$
- National Weather Service
- La Crosse, WI Weather Forecast Office
- N2788 County Road FA
- LaCrosse, WI 54601
- 608-784-7294
- Page Author: ARX Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-arx.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:31 UTC