Extended Streamflow Guidance Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
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Upper Midwest Spring Snowmelt and Flood Potential Outlook
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
0938 AM CST Wed Mar 13, 2024
This is the third and final Spring Flood Outlook to be provided this
year, to discuss hydrologic conditions across the region, and
the associated potential for spring flooding.
To view the NCRFC 2024 Spring Hydrologic Outlook webpage, which
contains several reference graphics pertaining to the snowmelt
season antecedent and current hydrometeorological conditions, refer
to: http://www.weather.gov/NCRFC and select the “2024 Spring
Hydrologic Outlook” news headline near the top of the page.
This outlook references information from many sources, including the
following core partners:
*United States Geological Survey (USGS)
*Regional Climate Centers (Midwest-MRCC and High Plains-HPRCC)
*US Drought Monitor (NIDIS)
*US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
*NOAA, Office of Water Prediction (OWP), formerly known as
National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)
The following 2024 Spring Outlook issuance dates have been set in
coordination with all NWS regions and NWS headquarters:
National Weather Service issues Spring Flood Outlook with
probabilistic products on:
* Thursday, February 15, 2024 (Completed)
* Thursday, February 29, 2024 (Completed)
* Thursday, March 14, 2024
NOAA National Spring Flood Outlook press briefing will be on:
* Thursday, March 21, 2024
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Spring 2024 NCRFC Area Summary
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Overall, the risk for flooding this spring is well below normal across
the North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) service area. Since
the initial outlook in mid-February, precipitation has been below
normal across the NCRFC area which led to a further decreased threat
for Spring flooding in the latest Long Range Outlook products.
A strong El-Nino this winter certainly played a large role in
making for one of the warmest winters on record across the NCRFC
Service Area. Much of the precipitation that fell this winter came
in the form of rain. The snow the region did receive did not stick
around given the extreme warmth. The lack of snowpack across the
NCRFC service area remains historically low, with most places having
no snow left at all by mid-March.
Last September, most of the NCRFC service area was categorized in a
moderate drought or drier. Since that time, parts of the area have
been relieved by October and December rainfall, as well as snow for
portions of Iowa and southern Wisconsin this winter. While drought
conditions have improved for some, significant areas of abnormally dry
and drought conditions prevail. This is especially true across Iowa
where severe to extreme drought persists. Due to the warm
temperatures this winter, the frost depths are well below normal and
most of the area is completely frost-free.
The below normal frost depth, anomalously little snow, and relatively
dry soils leave future precipitation as the main driver of the risk
going forward.
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SPD/NCRFC