Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS63 KMSR 201715
ESGRCK

ROCK RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Rock River
WATW3             5.5    6.0    6.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crawfish River
MILW3             7.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rock River
JFFW3            10.0   11.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FATW3            16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NVLW3            10.0   11.0   11.5    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
AFTW3             9.0   11.1   12.2    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3             8.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
DARW3            13.5   15.0   16.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3            11.0   14.0   16.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3            13.5   18.0   21.0     6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
FEEI2            13.0   14.0   16.0     9   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sugar River
ALBW3            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BROW3             5.0    8.0   10.0    21   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2            12.0   14.0   15.5     7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rock River
ROKI2            10.0   11.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LATI2            10.0   11.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
RABI2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2             9.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2            10.0   11.0   12.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2            12.0   18.0   22.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rock River
BYRI2            13.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DXRI2            16.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CMOI2            10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
JOSI2            12.0   14.0   16.5    10    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Green River
GENI2            15.0   16.5   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rock River
MLII2            12.0   13.0   14.0     7    9   <5    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201715/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Rock River
WATW3       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    2.2/    2.6/    3.3/    3.8
:Crawfish River
MILW3       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.8/    3.4/    4.4/    5.3
:Rock River
JFFW3       3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    4.5/    5.3/    6.7/    8.0
FATW3      11.1/   11.1/   11.2/   11.6/   12.1/   13.2/   13.8
NVLW3       6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.5/    8.3/    9.1
AFTW3       4.8/    4.8/    4.9/    5.3/    5.8/    7.3/    7.9
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       3.7/    3.9/    4.3/    4.9/    5.4/    6.4/    6.8
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       2.2/    2.3/    2.8/    3.6/    5.3/    7.1/   10.7
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       4.3/    4.6/    5.4/    7.3/    8.7/   10.3/   11.0
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       5.1/    5.3/    6.2/    7.4/    8.5/   11.5/   13.9
FEEI2       4.1/    5.0/    6.5/    7.8/   10.1/   13.0/   13.8
:Sugar River
ALBW3       4.3/    4.6/    5.7/    6.4/    7.6/   10.0/   11.1
BROW3       1.6/    1.8/    2.6/    3.2/    4.5/    6.1/    7.9
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2       4.8/    5.5/    7.2/    8.2/    9.8/   11.9/   12.6
:Rock River
ROKI2       3.6/    3.7/    4.5/    5.2/    6.4/    7.8/    9.0
LATI2       4.3/    4.4/    5.0/    5.6/    6.5/    7.7/    8.7
RABI2       2.7/    2.7/    3.0/    3.1/    3.3/    3.5/    3.8
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2       2.2/    2.4/    3.2/    4.8/    5.7/    6.8/    7.7
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2       2.9/    3.1/    3.8/    4.9/    5.6/    6.6/    7.9
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2       6.0/    6.2/    7.0/    8.7/   10.2/   11.1/   12.1
:Rock River
BYRI2       5.6/    5.8/    7.0/    7.9/    9.0/   10.5/   11.4
DXRI2       8.3/    8.4/    8.9/    9.5/   10.4/   12.0/   13.3
CMOI2       3.5/    3.6/    4.3/    5.0/    5.7/    7.0/    8.3
JOSI2       5.2/    5.3/    6.6/    8.4/    9.7/   12.1/   13.3
:Green River
GENI2       3.2/    3.8/    4.4/    6.7/    8.9/   12.4/   13.9
:Rock River
MLII2       8.2/    8.3/    8.9/    9.7/   10.7/   11.8/   12.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201715/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Rock River
WATW3       1.8/    1.7/    1.5/    1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2
:Crawfish River
MILW3       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
:Rock River
JFFW3       3.7/    3.7/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2
FATW3      11.0/   10.9/   10.7/   10.6/   10.6/   10.5/   10.5
NVLW3       5.8/    5.8/    5.7/    5.7/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6
AFTW3       3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.1/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.4/    4.2/    3.9/    3.9
FEEI2       3.7/    3.6/    3.4/    3.2/    3.0/    2.7/    2.5
:Sugar River
ALBW3       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7
BROW3       1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.1/    1.0/    0.9/    0.8
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2       4.6/    4.5/    4.3/    4.1/    3.7/    3.4/    3.2
:Rock River
ROKI2       3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.7/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3
LATI2       4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.7/    3.6/    3.4/    3.3
RABI2       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.3
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2       2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.7
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2       5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.3
:Rock River
BYRI2       5.3/    5.3/    5.2/    5.0/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7
DXRI2       8.2/    8.2/    8.1/    8.0/    7.9/    7.8/    7.8
CMOI2       3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.0/    2.9/    2.7/    2.7
JOSI2       4.9/    4.7/    4.6/    4.4/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8
:Green River
GENI2       3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.4
:Rock River
MLII2       8.1/    8.0/    8.0/    7.9/    7.8/    7.7/    7.6
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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