Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 151935
ESGTIR

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
230PM EST WED FEB 15, 2017

LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS NO RISK FOR FLOODING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. DURING THIS SAME
PERIOD...THE RISK FOR FLOODING IN THE CUMBERLAND WATERSHED IS BELOW
NORMAL.

A NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR
WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.

A BELOW NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING MEANS FLOODING IS UNLIKELY.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABLITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOODSTAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW
THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A 90-DAY WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED MONTHLY.

FACTORS CONSIDERED IN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE (1) ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (2) PAST PRECIPITATION (3) RECENT STREAMFLOWS AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS (4) SOIL MOISTURE (5) WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
PACK (6) ICE CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS AND (7) FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

METEOROLOGICALLY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES HAVE OCCURRED SINCE MID
DECEMBER 2016 LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL AND NO ICE
DEVELOPMENT ON RIVERS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN.

PRECIPITATION FOR 2017 HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL(~150%)ACROSS THE UPPER
WABASH...MAUMEE WATERSHED AND LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE NEAR CLEVELAND AS
WELL AS DRAINAGES IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
OHIO RIVER BASIN HAS HAD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION (50 TO
75%).

SOILS ARE WET IN THE NORTHERN BASINS AND WATERSHEDS IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...SOILS ARE MOIST.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK/SUMMARY...

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES HAS
PRECLUDED INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES ON A FREQUENT BASIS THIS
WINTER. THE LACK OF A SNOWPACK CONSIDERABLE LESSENS THE CHANCE FOR
FLOODING IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

ALSO...THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN PREDOMINANTLY FAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES PRODUCING WEAKER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS IN THE
OHIO RIVER BASIN (LITTLE AMPLIFICATION AND STRENGTHENING OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AS WELL AS LACK OF INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO). THIS SETUP HAS LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
FURTHERMORE...THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WINTER LEADING TO...AT BEST...A NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING.

MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY--->NO FLOODING
LATE FEBRUARY TO EARLY MARCH---NORMAL TO BELOW RISK FOR FLOODING

$$
WHEELER



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