Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill

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148
FGUS63 KKRF 162014
ESPKRF

MISSOURI  BASIN RIVER  FORECAST  CENTER WATER  SUPPLY  STATEMENT
ISSUED IN COOPERATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
ISSUED:  MAY 16, 2016


UPPER MISSOURI BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN AS OF MAY 1
WAS BELOW AVERAGE.  THE SNOW PACK ABOVE TOSTON,  MONTANA WAS 69
PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  THE SNOW PACK BETWEEN TOSTON AND FORT PECK,
MONTANA WAS 64 PERCENT.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE ST MARY AND MILK RIVER
BASINS WAS 65 PERCENT.

APRIL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN RANGED FROM NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.  BASIN PRECIPITATION SUMMARIES FOR THE MISSOURI
BASIN INCLUDE: MILK ST. MARY, 65 PERCENT; MILK CANADA, 192 PERCENT;
LOWER MILK, 291 PERCENT; ABOVE TOSTON, 90 PERCENT; TOSTON TO FT.
PECK, 173 PERCENT.

STREAM FLOW IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
AVERAGE DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER.  THE ST. MARY RIVER
IS FORECAST TO HAVE 81 PERCENT OF AVERAGE APRIL-SEPTEMBER FLOWS.
RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE AROUND 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR THE
MISSOURI BASIN ABOVE FORT PECK, MONTANA.

OF THE FOUR MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS IN MONTANA:  LIMA RESERVOIR
HAD 111 PERCENT AVERAGE STORAGE, CLARK CANYON WAS HOLDING 87 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE WATER, GIBSON RESERVOIR HAD 122 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED
WATER, AND FRESNO RESERVOIR HAD 114 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED WATER.
THE  MAJOR  HYDROELECTRIC  RESERVOIRS  IN  MONTANA (CANYON  FERRY
AND FORT PECK) HAD MONTHEND STORAGE IN THE NEAR AVERAGE RANGE; 107
AND 114 PERCENT OF AVERAGE WATER, RESPECTIVELY.

YELLOWSTONE BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN WAS NEAR
AVERAGE ON MAY 1.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE BASIN WAS
72 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL.  THE SNOW PACKS IN THE WIND, BIGHORN,
AND SHOSHONE BASINS WERE 120, 103, AND 82 PERCENT OF AVERAGE,
RESPECTIVELY.  THE SNOW PACKS IN THE TONGUE AND POWDER BASINS WERE
93 AND 102 PERCENT OF AVERAGE, RESPECTIVELY.

PRECIPITATION IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN DURING APRIL WAS NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE.  THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 79
PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WHILE THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE BASIN
REPORTED 208 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  THE BIGHORN BASIN RECEIVED 158
PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WHILE THE WIND RIVER BASIN RECEIVED
201 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE LITTLE BIGHORN - UPPER TONGUE BASIN
RECEIVED 191 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AND THE POWDER RIVER HAD 193 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST STREAM FLOW IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN IS ABOVE TO BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER.  STREAM FLOW FOR THE
WIND-BIGHORN BASIN ABOVE ST. XAVIER, MONTANA IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT
120 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  FLOW IN THE TONGUE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 87 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  FLOWS IN THE POWDER RIVER ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOUT 92 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

MONTHEND STORAGE AT BOYSEN RESERVOIR WAS 120 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
STORED WATER IN BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR WAS 134 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
MONTHEND STORAGE WAS 102 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT BIGHORN RESERVOIR.

PLATTE BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 111
PERCENT OF AVERAGE ON MAY 1.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTH  PLATTE
BASIN BELOW SEMINOE RESERVOIR WAS 165 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THE SNOW PACK IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 118 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

APRIL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLATTE BASIN WAS ABOVE AVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION DURING APRIL IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN ABOVE
SEMINOE RESERVOIR WAS 146 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. IN THE LOWER NORTH
PLATTE BASIN BETWEEN SEMINOE RESERVOIR AND GUERNSY RESERVOIR
PRECIPITATION WAS 183 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE NORTH PLATTE PLAINS
BELOW GUERNSY RESERVOIR HAD 207 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
THE SOUTH PLATTE MOUNTAINS HAD 145 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
WHEREAS THE SOUTH PLATTE PLAINS HAD 193 PERCENT OF AVERAGE APRIL
PRECIPITATION.

STREAM FLOW IN THE PLATTE BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER. RUNOFF FOR STREAMS ABOVE
SEMINOE RESERVOIR ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 120 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
STREAM FLOWS FOR THE NORTH PLATTE BELOW SEMINOE RESERVOIR ARE
FORECAST TO BE 128 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. STREAMS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE
BASIN ABOVE SOUTH PLATTE, COLORADO CAN EXPECT 110 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
FLOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN FLOWS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR 110 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

STORED WATER IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 108 PERCENT OF AVERAGE ON
MAY 1.  STORED WATER IN THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 127 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE




WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
NWS MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
PLEASANT HILL MO

1951 CST MON MAY 16, 2016

DISSEMINATED WITH PERMISSION OF THE
US NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE

DATA CURRENT AS OF: MAY 11, 2016
BASED ON MAY 01 2016 FORECAST VALUES

FINAL MISSOURI/YELLOWSTONE/PLATTE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS
                                            50% % OF  MAX  MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                       PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF)(KAF) AVG
--------------                       ------ -------------  ---  ---
ST. MARY R NR BABB (2)               MAY-JUL  275  81  335  215  340
                                     MAY-SEP  320  81  390  250  395
LIMA RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)            MAY-JUL   34  6053 15.1   57
                                     MAY-SEP   37  5859 14.7   64
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)    MAY-JUL   35  5594  -24   64
                                     MAY-SEP   47  57  110-16.4   83
BEAVERHEAD R AT BARRETTS (2)         MAY-JUL   50  59  143 -7.0   85
                                     MAY-SEP   64  58  176  4.0  111
BIG HOLE R NR MELROSE                MAY-JUL  415  94  515  315  440
                                     MAY-SEP  455  95  570  340  480
RUBY R RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)          MAY-JUL   53  7976   30   67
                                     MAY-SEP   66  8093   39   82
HEBGEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)          MAY-JUL  225  74  275  173  305
                                     MAY-SEP  305  75  365  245  405
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)           MAY-JUL  410  77  520  300  530
                                     MAY-SEP  540  79  670  410  680
GALLATIN R NR GATEWAY                MAY-JUL  335  91  405  265  370
                                     MAY-SEP  395  90  475  315  440
GALLATIN R AT LOGAN                  MAY-JUL  335  88  465  205  380
                                     MAY-SEP  390  88  545  235  445
MISSOURI R AT TOSTON (2)             MAY-JUL 1240  84 1700  775 1480
                                     MAY-SEP 1460  83 2030  885 1760
MISSOURI R AT FORT BENTON (2)        MAY-JUL 1600  73 2260  940 2190
                                     MAY-SEP 2000  75 2850 1150 2680
MISSOURI R NR VIRGELLE (2)           MAY-JUL 1750  70 2490  995 2510
                                     MAY-SEP 2160  71 3150 1170 3030
MISSOURI R NR LANDUSKY (2)           MAY-JUL 1830  69 2550 1100 2650
                                     MAY-SEP 2270  71 3240 1300 3200
MISSOURI R BLW FT PECK DAM (2)       MAY-JUL 1780  66 2650  900 2700
                                     MAY-SEP 2080  66 3270  885 3160
LAKE SAKAKAWEA INFLOW (2)            MAY-JUL 5730  79 7510 3950 7230
                                     MAY-SEP 6540  79 9170 3910 8320
SHEEP CK NR WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS    MAY-JUL 11.9  89 16.9  6.9 13.4
                                     MAY-SEP 14.7  9121  8.6 16.2
GIBSON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)          MAY-JUL  177  50  240  113  355
                                     MAY-SEP  210  53  280  137  395
MARIAS R NR SHELBY (2)               MAY-JUL  110  39  255 15.0  285
                                     MAY-SEP  116  39  275   20  300
NF MUSSELSHELL R NR DELPINE          MAY-JUL  2.5  76  4.9 0.50  3.3
                                     MAY-SEP  3.2  78  6.0 0.50  4.1
SF MUSSELSHELL R AB MARTINSDALE      MAY-JUL   29  7861 1.00   37
                                     MAY-SEP   32  8065 1.00   40
MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTON (2)       MAY-JUL   37  7789 -5.0   48
                                     MAY-SEP   38  7693 -5.0   50
YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LAKE    MAY-JUL  435  80  535  335  545
                                     MAY-SEP  580  79  705  455  735
YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS      MAY-JUL 1210  82 1470  955 1480
                                     MAY-SEP 1430  81 1740 1120 1770
YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTON          MAY-JUL 1370  82 1690 1060 1670
                                     MAY-SEP 1630  81 2010 1250 2010
YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGS            MAY-JUL 2430  81 3120 1740 3000
                                     MAY-SEP 2800  80 3660 1950 3490
YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITY (2)      MAY-JUL 3880  89 4830 2940 4370
                                     MAY-SEP 4420  88 5670 3170 5030
YELLOWSTONE R NR SIDNEY (2)          MAY-JUL 3870  88 5000 2740 4380
                                     MAY-SEP 4330  87 5830 2830 4980
BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER              MAY-JUL  220  81  270  169  270
                                     MAY-SEP  235  81  295  175  290
STILLWATER R NR ABSAROKEE (2)        MAY-JUL  360  86  445  275  420
                                     MAY-SEP  425  86  530  320  495
CLARKS FK YELLOWSTONE R NR BELFRY    MAY-JUL  415  86  485  345  480
                                     MAY-SEP  445  85  530  360  525
BOYSEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)          MAY-JUL  715 128  960  470  560
                                     MAY-SEP  775 126 1060  490  615
BIGHORN R AT KANE (2)                MAY-JUL  935 121 1250  620  770
                                     MAY-SEP 1000 120 1350  650  830
BIGHORN R NR ST. XAVIER (2)          MAY-JUL 1390 110 1790 1000 1260
                                     MAY-SEP 1480 110 1920 1040 1340
GREYBULL R NR MEETEETSE              MAY-JUL  150 121  172  128  124
                                     MAY-SEP  205 121  250  158  170
SHELL CK NR SHELL                    MAY-JUL   41  7955   27   52
                                     MAY-SEP   52  8367   37   63
BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)    MAY-JUL  590  94  715  465  630
                                     MAY-SEP  660  94  800  520  700
LITTLE BIGHORN R NR HARDIN           MAY-JUL   61  7291   31   85
                                     MAY-SEP   72  74  104   40   97
TONGUE R NR DAYTON (2)               MAY-JUL   70  8897   43   80
                                     MAY-SEP   82  89  111   53   92
TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)    MAY-JUL  150  86  240   60  175
                                     MAY-SEP  171  86  265   75  198
ROCK CK NR BUFFALO                   MAY-JUL 16.3  9222 10.1 17.7
                                     MAY-SEP 19.9  9527 13.3   21
NF POWDER R NR HAZELTON              MAY-JUL  7.7  93 10.4  5.0  8.3
                                     MAY-SEP  8.4  93 11.3  5.5  9.0
POWDER R AT MOORHEAD                 MAY-JUL  139  92  225   53  151
                                     MAY-SEP  157  92  245   67  170
POWDER R NR LOCATE                   MAY-JUL  153  93  260   44  164
                                     MAY-SEP  172  93  290   53  185


UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                                           50% % OF  MAX  MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                      PERIOD(KAF) AVG (KAF)(KAF) AVG
--------------                      --------------- ---------------
NORTH PLATTE R NR NORTHGATE         MAY-JUL  235  126  315 154 187
                                    MAY-SEP  265  126  360 171 210
ENCAMPMENT R NR ENCAMPMENT          MAY-JUL  138  117  171 105 118
                                    MAY-SEP  148  117  183 113 127
ROCK CK NR ARLINGTON                MAY-JUL   54  113   65  43  48
                                    MAY-SEP   57  114   69  45  50
SEMINOE RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        MAY-JUL  745  121 1040 450 615
                                    MAY-SEP  815  122 1140 490 670


LOWER NORTH PLATTE, SWEETWATER & LARAMIE RIVER BASINS
                                         50%  % OF   MAX   MIN  30-YR
FORECAST POINT                     PERIOD (KAF)  AVG(KAF) (KAF)  AVG
--------------                     ------ ----- --------- ----- -----
SWEETWATER R NR ALCOVA              MAY-JUL   51  11174   28   46
                                    MAY-SEP   56  11281   31   50
LA PRELE CK AB LA PRELE RESERVOIR   MAY-JUL   22  14831 13.0 14.9
                                    MAY-SEP   23  15532 14.1 14.8
NORTH PLATTE R BL GLENDO RES (2)    MAY-JUL  860  128 1100  615  670
                                    MAY-SEP  895  128 1150  645  700
NORTH PLATTE R BL GUERNSEY RES (2)  MAY-JUL  860  128 1160  565  670
                                    MAY-SEP  905  129 1210  600  700
LARAMIE R NR WOODS                  MAY-JUL  140  130  174  106  108
                                    MAY-SEP  153  129  191  115  119
LITTLE LARAMIE R NR FILMORE         MAY-JUL   57  11971   43   48
                                    MAY-SEP   61  11777   45   52


SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                                             50% % OF MAX  MIN  30-YR
FORECAST POINT                      PERIOD  (KAF) AVG(KAF)(KAF)  AVG
--------------                      ------  ------------------- -----
ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW             APR-JUL  16.6 114 19.9 13.3  14.5
                                    APR-SEP    20 112   25 16.2  17.8
                                    MAY-JUL  14.7 112 18.0 11.4  13.1
                                    MAY-SEP  18.4 112   23 14.3  16.4
SPINNEY MOUNTAIN RES INFLOW (2)     APR-JUL    52 108   69   37    48
                                    APR-SEP    65 107   89   46    61
                                    MAY-JUL    48 109   65   33    44
                                    MAY-SEP    61 109   85   42    56
ELEVENMILE CANYON RES INFLOW (2)    APR-JUL    55 110   73   40    50
                                    APR-SEP    70 109   95   49    64
                                    MAY-JUL    50 111   68   35    45
                                    MAY-SEP    65 112   90   44    58
CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW (2)            APR-JUL   109 109  149   76   100
                                    APR-SEP   138 110  192   94   126
                                    MAY-JUL    95 110  135   62    86
                                    MAY-SEP   124 110  178   80   113
SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTE (2)  APR-JUL   205 114  280  143   180
                                    APR-SEP   250 111  335  178   225
                                    MAY-JUL   175 112  250  113   156
                                    MAY-SEP   220 107  305  148   205
BEAR CK AB EVERGREEN                APR-JUL  18.3 112   27 11.8  16.4
                                    APR-SEP    23 110   35 14.2    21
                                    MAY-JUL  16.3 115   25  9.8  14.2
                                    MAY-SEP    21 111   33 12.2  18.9
CLEAR CK AT GOLDEN                  APR-JUL   110 105  130   93   105
                                    APR-SEP   132 103  157  110   128
                                    MAY-JUL   103 103  123   86   100
                                    MAY-SEP   125 102  150  103   123
ST. VRAIN CK AT LYONS (2)           APR-JUL    90 102  107   75    88
                                    APR-SEP   105 102  126   86   103
                                    MAY-JUL    84 105  101   69    80
                                    MAY-SEP    99 104  120   80    95
BOULDER CK NR ORODELL (2)           APR-JUL    62 115   72   53    54
                                    APR-SEP    71 113   84   60    63
                                    MAY-JUL    58 114   68   49    51
                                    MAY-SEP    67 114   80   56    59
S BOULDER CK NR ELDORADO SPRINGS(2) APR-JUL    44 113   54   35    39
                                    APR-SEP    49 114   61   39    43
                                    MAY-JUL    39 111   49   30    35
                                    MAY-SEP    44 113   56   34    39
BIG THOMPSON R AT CANYON MOUTH (2)  APR-JUL    89  99  104   74    90
                                    APR-SEP   106  99  127   85   107
                                    MAY-JUL    83  98   98   68    85
                                    MAY-SEP   100  98  121   79   102
CACHE LA POUDRE AT CANYON MOUTH (2) APR-JUL   245 109  290  205   225
                                    APR-SEP   270 108  320  220   250
                                    MAY-JUL   215 102  260  175   210
                                    MAY-SEP   240 102  290  190   235

 MAX (10%), 30%, 50%, 70% AND MIN (90%) CHANCE THAT ACTUAL VOLUME
 WILL EXCEED FORECAST.

 AVERAGES ARE FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.
 ALL VOLUMES ARE IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET.

 FOOTNOTES:
 1) MAX AND MIN ARE 5% AND 95% CHANCE THAT ACTUAL VOLUME WILL EXCEED
    FORECAST
 2) STREAMFLOW IS ADJUSTED FOR UPSTREAM STORAGE
 3) MEDIAN VALUE USED IN PLACE OF AVERAGE



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