Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 212000
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...Continued Warm and Breezy on Sunday Afternoon...

.DISCUSSION...The high pressure of the last few days will once
again aid us in receiving warm air and gusty winds into Sunday
afternoon. A cold front will begin crossing the northern Michigan
during the afternoon, and bring rain and somewhat cooler
temperatures to the western part of the state. With the rain
expected in the west, a higher minimum relative humidity is
expected for Sunday afternoon for the east. The eastern part of
the state temperatures will be the warmest with the mid to upper
70s possible. Winds ahead of the front will be gusting 20-25 mph.
Wind shifts with the front are not expected until after 5 pm in
the west and after midnight Sunday night in the east.

Monday will begin the change to a more fall like pattern with
cooler temperatures, that will be closer to normal and a few
storms to provide rain this upcoming week.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-220830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (970).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.18 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (120).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.20-0.53 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.10-0.37 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-220830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (710).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....50-55...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.08-0.38 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (190).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.29-0.41 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-220830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200, then periods of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (720).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.30 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers.
                    Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (120).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.34-0.49 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.33 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-220830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (100).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200, then periods of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 30 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (680).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.28 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (150).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.28-0.54 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.35 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-220830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (760).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (310).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.09-0.42 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (260).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.28-0.39 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND
50. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JL


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