Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 241942
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...Turning partly cloudy and warmer...

.DISCUSSION...The upper level low will finally lose its grip over
northern Michigan (at least eventually). However, there could
still be a few lingering showers across eastern zones through at
least Thursday night. Will continue with the dry forecast per the
blend for Friday and Saturday but still would not be surprised if
we see a few popup showers developing Friday. Otherwise, improving
conditions with warming temperatures expected Friday into
Saturday. Shower chances return for later Sunday into the
beginning of next week.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-250815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
342 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2100, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.11 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.15 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-250815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
342 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0100, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.21 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1400, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT...EXCEPT 93-98 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.20 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-250815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
342 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2100, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-250815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
342 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-250815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
342 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0100, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.18 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0700, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.15 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

AJS



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