Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 210738
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...Showers and storms then cooling...

.DISCUSSION...A frontal zone will remain draped out across the
region today resulting in a weak pressure gradient. Winds increase
tonight, out ahead of low pressure which rides east along the front
and across nrn Michigan, while also spreading showers and storms
across the region, particularly tonight. A fairly quick wind shift
will accompany a cold front late tonight into Tuesday morning, with
gusty northwest winds set for Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Cold air
advection will result in cooler high temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-212015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1400 until
                    1700, then chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer...except 1 degree cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 6 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (780).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 2400. chance of thunderstorms.
                    showers likely after 2400. Patchy fog after
                    0100.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.26-0.47 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800. Chance of thunderstorms until 0800.
                    showers likely until 1400.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1440).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.28-0.53 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-212015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 1400 until 1700. chance of
                    showers after 1400. chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1700.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (740).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 2400. chance of thunderstorms.
                    showers likely after 2400. Patchy fog after
                    0100.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.20-0.43 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until 0800.
                    Chance of thunderstorms until 0800. showers
                    likely until 1400.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1350).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 27 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.27-0.54 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-212015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1400.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (770).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 2400, then showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 0100.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.30-0.56 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800. Chance of thunderstorms until 0800.
                    showers likely until 1400.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 12 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1220).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.23-0.52 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-212015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    after 1400 until 1700. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 1400. slight chance of
                    showers after 1700.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (750).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 2400, then showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 0100.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.27-0.48 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800. Chance of thunderstorms until 0800.
                    showers likely until 1400.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 6 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1060).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.27-0.46 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-212015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 1400 until 1700. chance of
                    showers after 1400. chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1700.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1060).
Mixing Height.......7200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 2400. chance of thunderstorms.
                    showers likely after 2400. Patchy fog after
                    0100.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.22-0.34 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until 0800.
                    Chance of thunderstorms until 0800. showers
                    likely until 1400.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1200).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 24 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.27-0.51 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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