Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 051939
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...SO THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 PERCENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVING BY LATE TUESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-060830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
                    PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 27 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.48 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.16 IN.

$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-060830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.28 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.32 IN.

$$

MIZ020-025>027-060830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 9 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 23 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 39 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 27
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.49 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.15 IN.

$$

MIZ031>033-060830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.55 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.17 IN.

$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-060830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.30 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.29 IN.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMITH



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