Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 241417
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR KINSEY HUNT PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
917 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON NOVEMBER 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING WILL ROCKET NORTHEAST INTO CANADA THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WEST AND
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. WITH
THAT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WRAP BACK INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. REMAINING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL CHANGE
BACK OVER TO SNOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW
THEN PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AT THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM.

WINDS...SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT WINDS
WILL VEER WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND BECOME A
BIT MORE GUSTY... WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 47.
RH..................100 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH
                    BECOMING WEST LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 700-1300 FT
                    AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR (200).

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....PDS PDS PDS PDS PDS PDS PDS
WEATHER TYPE....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TEMP............47  46  46  45  45  44  42
RH..............93  93  93  93  93  96  100
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  15  15  15
SMOKE DISP......200 200 200 200 100 100 200

.TONIGHT...

TEMPERATURE.........MIN 27.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2500 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN FAIR(200).

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
TEMP............39  37  35  34  32  31  31  30  30  29  29  28
RH..............100 100 100 96  89  89  88  88  92  92  88  88
20 FT WIND DIR..W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15
SMOKE DISP......200 300 400 500 600 700 700 700 600 400 300 200

.TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURE.........MAX 30.
RH..................MIN 72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-3700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(800).

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
TEMP............27     27     28     29     30     29
RH..............88     85     82     75     72     74
20 FT WIND......W 7    NW 7   W 7    W 7    W 7    W 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     15
SMOKE DISP......100    200    600    700    800    800

$$
FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM
REQUESTED BY...MARTEL KNIPE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141124.KINSE.01/APX



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