Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
000
FNUS73 KAPX 261938
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Lost Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms
will impact northern lower Michigan tonight through Thursday.
Greatest rain chances at the burn site will occur overnight into
early Thursday morning with another round swinging through late
Thursday morning through the afternoon.

Gusty SE winds will impact the burn site through early this
evening. Winds and gustiness will diminish this evening.

Potent cold front swings through the region on Thursday (with the
second batch of showers/storms)...knocking temperatures down into
the lower 60s by late afternoon.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered rain showers
                    will move through the burn site between 5 and 8 pm.
                    Another round of more widespread showers and a few
                    thunderstorms will swing through the region overnight.
Temperature.........Min 59.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 16 mph at ignition with gusts up to
                    25 mph. Southeast winds diminish to 6 to 12 mph after 8 pm.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms until early morning.
Mixing height.......2400-3900 ft AGL decreasing to 600-1100 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 24 mph shifting to the southeast 12
                    to 18 mph early in the evening.
Vent rate...........Poor to excellent (100-900).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83  83  82  84  88  89  89  89  90  89  89  89
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............72  71  70  68  66  63  62  61  60  60  59  59
RH..............61  63  66  73  73  81  84  90  93  90  93  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  9   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.25  20  15  15  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 2.4 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.24  17  13  12  12  13  13  14  15  16  17  18
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3
VRate/100.......9   4   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely after 11 am. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the late morning and early
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 11 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the late morning
                    and early afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2100 ft AGL increasing to 3600-5500 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    4400-5800 ft AGL in the afternoon decreasing to
                    3600 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 26 mph increasing to southwest 35
                    to 44 mph in the late morning and afternoon,
                    then decreasing to around 32 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Vent rate...........Poor to excellent (100-2400).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  79  75  75  75  75  75  74  74  70  64  61
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............59  59  59  61  64  67  68  68  67  66  65  62
RH..............93  93  90  84  75  68  65  65  65  63  60  62
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   8   9   9   10  10  11  11  10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 4.8 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.2 4.4 3.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  17  20  26  36  43  44  41  39  37  35  32
Haines index....3   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VRate/100.......1   1   2   6   13  20  24  24  22  19  15  12

$$
Forecaster...Brian Adam
Requested by...Holly Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707827.0/APX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.