Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 081216
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
516 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON FEBRUARY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD
DISPERSION. A FEW GUSTS COULD MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY TO BRIEFLY
INCREASE THE 20 FOOT WINDS OVER THE BURN AREA...WITH PERHAPS GUSTS
TO 12 MPH OR SO. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...AT
LIGHTER SPEEDS. THE WEEK WILL BRING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS.

PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON THESE FORECASTS IF POSSIBLE. ALSO...THERE
IS A RAWS OUTAGE SO WE HAVE NO OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CARPENTER RAWS
TO REFER TO. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BURN SITE WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 0800...THEN MOSTLY
                    SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 5-7 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN NORTHWEST 5-11 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2900-3900
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15-20 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 25-30
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1300.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-6 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN
                    WEST 8-9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1500-1800 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-25 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 10-15
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1800. POOR AFTER 2000.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    NORTHWEST 4-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 4600-5600 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1400.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/08-05 38  0  0 21 57   W  7  7 2 1 NNW 63   664  NW 16  9090 P
02/08-06 35  0  0 21 59   W  7  7 2 1 NNW 61   701  NW 16  9835 P
02/08-07 32  0  0 21 62   W  6  6 2 1 NNW 59   737  NW 16 10606 P
02/08-08 29  0  0 22 65   W  6  6 2 1 NNW 58   774 WNW 17 11403 P
02/08-09 25  0  0 28 57   W  6  6 2 1 NNW 56  1454  NW 20 24829 P
02/08-10 22  0  0 36 47  NW  5  5 2 1 NNW 55  2135 NNW 22 41436  F
02/08-11 19  0  0 41 43 NNW  5  5 2 1 NNW 54  2815 NNW 25 61222   G
02/08-12 20  0  0 43 42 NNW  5  5 2 1 NNW 54  3283 NNW 26 74261   G
02/08-13 20  0  0 45 41 NNW  6  8 2 1 NNW 54  3751 NNW 26 88119   G
02/08-14 21  0  0 47 39   N  8 10 2 1 NNW 53  4218 NNW 28102794    V
02/08-15 21  0  0 47 38 NNW  8 11 2 1 NNW 53  3926 NNW 28 93719   G
02/08-16 22  0  0 46 38  NW  7  8 2 1   N 53  3634 NNW 26 84935   G
02/08-17 22  0  0 42 43  NW  6  6 2 1   N 52  3342 NNW 26 76442   G
02/08-18 21  0  0 39 47 WNW  6  6 2 1   N 52  2737 NNW 24 58192  F
02/08-19 19  0  0 36 51   W  7  7 2 1   N 52  2132 NNW 23 41894  F
02/08-20 18  0  0 33 56   W  7  7 2 1   N 52  1528 NNW 21 27547 P
02/08-21 16  0  0 32 56   W  7  7 2 1 NNW 45  1525 NNW 20 26107 P
02/08-22 15  0  0 30 58   W  8  8 3 1 NNW 38  1522 NNW 18 24673 P
02/08-23 13  0  0 30 56   W  8 13 3 1 NNW 31  1519 NNW 17 23244 P
02/09-00 15  0  0 28 59   W  9 14 3 1 NNW 33  1610  NW 16 22928 P
02/09-01 17  0  0 28 58   W 10 16 3 1 NNW 36  1702  NW 15 22416 P
02/09-02 18  0  0 31 51   W 10 16 3 1 NNW 38  1793 WNW 14 21710 P
02/09-03 20  0  0 30 52   W 10 16 3 1 NNW 35  1696  NW 13 18680 P
02/09-04 22  0  0 30 50 WSW 10 16 3 1 NNW 32  1599 NNW 12 15869 P
02/09-05  9  0  0 29 51 WSW  9 15 3 1 NNW 30  1501 NNW 10 13257 P
02/09-06  9  0  0 29 51 WSW  9 15 3 1 NNW 30  1493 NNW 10 13579 P
02/09-07  9  0  0 29 51 WSW  9 15 4 1 NNW 30  1486  NW 10 13898 P
02/09-08  9  0  0 30 51 WSW  9 15 4 1 NNW 29  1478  NW 12 14212 P
02/09-09  9  0  0 36 43   W  8 14 4 1 NNW 31  2482  NW 13 26940 P
02/09-10  9  0  0 43 35   W  8 13 4 1 NNW 32  3486 NNW 14 42159  F
02/09-11  9  0  0 48 31   W  7  7 4 1 NNW 33  4489 NNW 15 59868  F
02/09-12  9  0  0 51 29   W  7  7 4 1 NNW 35  4894 NNW 17 72204   G
02/09-13  8  0  0 52 28  NW  6  6 4 1 NNW 36  5298 NNW 18 85687   G
02/09-14  8  0  0 54 26  NW  6  6 4 1 NNW 37  5703 NNW 21100317    V
02/09-15  7  0  0 54 26  NW  6  6 4 1 NNW 38  5146 NNW 20 86966   G
02/09-16  6  0  0 53 27 WNW  6  6 5 1 NNW 39  4588 NNW 18 74385   G
02/09-17  6  0  0 48 31 WNW  6  6 5 1   N 41  4031 NNW 18 62572   G
02/09-18  6  0  0 44 35 WNW  7  7 5 1   N 43  3076 NNW 16 43100  F
02/09-19  6  0  0 41 38   W  7  7 5 1   N 44  2121  NW 15 26512 P
02/09-20  6  0  0 37 42   W  8 13 5 1   N 45  1165  NW 13 12810 P
02/09-21  6  0  0 36 41   W  8 13 5 1   N 44  1237  NW 13 13191 P
02/09-22  6  0  0 34 42 WSW  8 13 5 1   N 41  1309  NW 12 13524 P
02/09-23  5  0  0 33 41 WSW  8 13 5 1   N 39  1381  NW 12 13811 P
02/10-00  5  0  0 32 41 WSW  8 14 5 1   N 38  1533 WNW 12 15166 P
02/10-01  5  0  0 35 36 WSW  9 14 5 1 NNW 36  1686 WNW 12 16488 P
02/10-02  5  0  0 34 36 WSW  9 15 5 1 NNW 35  1838 WNW 12 17776 P
02/10-03  5  0  0 34 36 WSW  9 15 5 1 NNW 33  2143 WNW 13 23180 P
02/10-04  5  0  0 33 37 WSW  9 15 5 1 NNW 32  2448 WNW 14 29282 P
02/10-05  4  0  0 33 38 WSW  9 15 5 1 NNW 31  2753 WNW 15 36083 P
02/10-06  4  0  0 33 38 WSW  9 15 5 1 NNW 29  3186 WNW 16 45908  F
02/10-07  4  0  0 33 40 WSW 10 16 5 1 NNW 26  3618 WNW 18 56862  F
02/10-08  4  0  0 34 40 WSW 10 16 5 1 NNW 24  4050 WNW 20 68945   G
02/10-09  4  0  0 40 33 WSW 10 16 5 1 NNW 25  4272 WNW 20 72356   G
02/10-10  4  0  0 48 26 WSW  9 15 4 1 NNW 26  4494 NNW 20 75729   G
02/10-11  4  0  0 53 23 WSW  9 15 4 1 NNW 26  4716 NNW 20 79064   G
02/10-12  4  0  0 55 22 WSW  9 15 4 1 NNW 26  6097 NNW 18 97011   G
02/10-13  4  0  0 57 21   W  9 15 5 1  NW 25  7478 NNW 17112597    V
02/10-14  4  0  0 59 20   W  9 15 5 1  NW 25  8859 NNW 16125823    V
02/10-15  4  0  0 59 20   W  8 14 5 1  NW 24  6943  NW 16 99426   G
02/10-16  4  0  0 58 20 WSW  8  8 5 1  NW 24  5027  NW 16 72579   G
02/10-17 13  0  0 53 24 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 24  3111 WNW 17 45283  F
02/10-18 13  0  0 48 28 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 25  2872 WNW 17 43727  F
02/10-19 13  0  0 44 32 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 28  2632 WNW 18 41848  F
02/10-20 13  0  0 40 36 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 29  2392 WNW 20 39647 P
02/10-21 13  0  0 38 37 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 29  2479 WNW 20 41240  F
02/10-22 13  0  0 37 37   W  8 13 5 1  NW 29  2565 WNW 20 42845  F
02/10-23 18  0  0 35 38   W  8 13 5 1  NW 29  2651 WNW 20 44460  F
02/11-00 18  0  0 34 38   W  8 13 5 1  NW 30  2264 WNW 21 41481  F
02/11-01 18  0  0 37 33   W  8 13 5 1  NW 32  1878 WNW 23 37306 P
02/11-02 18  0  0 36 34   W  8 13 5 1  NW 33  1491 WNW 24 31934 P
02/11-03 18  0  0 35 36   W  8  8 5 1  NW 33  1777 WNW 23 36068 P
02/11-04 18  0  0 35 36   W  7  7 5 1  NW 32  2063  NW 22 39565 P
02/11-05 14  0  0 35 36   W  7  7 5 1  NW 32  2348  NW 21 42424  F

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG BROWN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160208.BEARM.01/BOU


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