Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 242054
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Indian Creek...BIA-MESCALERO
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
254 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1500 MDT on March 24.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to windy with critical or near critical conditions almost
daily through the forecast period.  Temperatures will warm some
on Saturday before falling again on Sunday a few degrees.
Winds will decrease this evening and be light through
the morning Saturday, but southwest winds which will be
favorable in the location of the fire will increase
by early afternoon to almost 20 mph with higher gusts.
Breezy to windy conditions will continue into Sunday but more
out of the west-northwest.  No precipitation is expected
until at least the middle of next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 27 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (186700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........13     13
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0
LAL.............1      1
Temp............60     56
RH..............20     25
20 ft wind......NW 18  NW 15
20 ft wind gust.25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....6900   6900
Transport wind..NW 27  NW 26
Haines index....3      4
Vent Rate.......EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 32
Max humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 11 mph becoming donwslope 2 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........8      8      8      8      8      8
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............53     45     40     37     35     32
RH..............33     38     44     49     53     58
20 ft wind......NW 17  NW 11  NW 7   VAR 5  E 4    E 5
20 ft wind gust.25     20     15     10     10     10
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 15 to 20 mph
                    with gusts to around 30 mph in the early
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 to 27 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (25400 knot-ft) increasing to very good (118800
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........12        12        17        17
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............32        40        55        65
RH..............40        29        17        12
20 FT wind......W 4G5     W 6G10    SW 9G20   SW 15G30
Mix hgt (ft)....2700      2700      4000      4900
Transport wind..S 3       SW 6      SW 13     SW 25
Haines index....3         4         3         3
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Aldon Coriz
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1705161.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fed.us


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