Suppression Forecast
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243
FNUS74 KEPZ 280024
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Baca Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
624 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0600 MDT on May 28.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Winds will slowly decrease tonight and shift more northerly late
then northeasterly Sunday morning as a backdoor cold front from the east
pushes westward accompanied by a wind shift to the east southeast by
Sunday afternoon. These winds will start to usher in low level moisture
across the region. This will raise relative humidities and increase chances
for showers and thunderstorms area wide starting later Sunday toward evening
into Monday. Wetting rain chances will continue into mid week next week. Any
lingering  storms over the Gila Wilderness could produce dry lighting.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent) then becoming partly
                    cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph gust 20 mph.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL increasing to 16700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (45400 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (129700 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      3      3      42     42     42
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............46     52     62     68     73     73
RH..............31     32     26     21     17     14
20 ft wind......NE 6   E 7    E 9    SE 10  SE 7   SE 5
20 ft wind gust.10     15     15     15     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....8600   8600   8600   16700  16700  16700
Transport wind..E 8    E 13   SE 10  S 6    S 7    S 9
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5      5
Vent Rate.......FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 to 20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......15200 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 10 to 11 mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (121800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (0 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........46     46     46     49     49     49
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      2      2      2
Temp............70     61     54     51     48     46
RH..............15     21     30     34     42     58
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 8   E 10   E 11   E 11   E 11
20 ft wind gust.10     15     15     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....15200  15200  15200  BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SW 9   SE 8   E 8    E 10   E 12   SE 10
Haines index....6      5      5      5      5      4
Vent Rate.......VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MEMORIAL DAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11000 ft AGL increasing to 15500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (101400 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (181600 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........41        41        65        65
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        30        30
LAL.............1         1         4         4
Temp............44        54        65        70
RH..............73        50        33        29
20 FT wind......E 10G15   SE 11G20  S 13G25   S 13G25
Mix hgt (ft)....11000     11000     15500     15500
Transport wind..SE 9      S 17      S 10      S 14
Haines index....3         3         4         5
Vent Rate.......VYGD      VYGD      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...NOVLAN
Requested by...Robb Beery
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1710191.0/EPZ
.EMAIL rbeery@rimgis.com



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