Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 251459
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for GRINDSTONE PILE BURN...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
859 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on September 25.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture has moved out of the area for now, but will return quickly overnight
as winds shift around to the southeast.  Thunderstorm chances will return
as well overnight but really increase later Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Winds will not be very strong, but there will be some shifting around
over the next 24 hours. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday but
as the winds shift to the east, expect a 10 to 15 degree dropoff starting
Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL increasing to 8200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to very good (82100-110900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........61     41     21     11     11
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............53     60     67     71     70
RH..............56     40     30     24     24
20 ft wind......NW 3   SW 6   SW 6   SW 8   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....5600   5600   8200   8200   8200
Transport wind..S 13   SW 16  SW 17  SW 14  SW 9
Haines index....2      3      3      4      4
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........14     24     34     44     44     44
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     20     20     20
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2
Temp............68     60     55     50     48     47
RH..............26     36     47     64     81     85
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 6   SE 6   SE 6   E 6    E 6
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     10
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1600-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 14 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........64        64        64        64
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).20        30        50        50
LAL.............2         3         4         4
Temp............49        56        62        65
RH..............83        69        56        50
20 FT wind......E 6G10    E 6G10    E 6G10    E 8G15
Mix hgt (ft)....1600      1600      1800      1800
Transport wind..E 14      E 14      E 13      E 14
Haines index....4         3         3         2
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Dan Ray
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1716207.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fed.us



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