Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 201824
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Sapillo Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1224 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1300 MDT on July 20.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
With monsoonal flow established, deep moisture will be in place
to help generate daily showers and storms this afternoon through
the early part of next week. Storms will also be possible later
next week, although chances for wetting precip will be backing
off just a bit. Meanwhile, slow moving storms could lead to
localized flooding through the upcoming weekend. Likewise, gusty
and erratic winds will occur with storms over or close to the fire
area.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Numerous showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6200-7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 11 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (48000-69600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........66     66     66
Weather cov.....NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).60     60     60
LAL.............5      5      5
Temp............73     79     77
RH..............54     48     50
20 ft wind......S 6    S 6    S 6
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....7400   7400   7400
Transport wind..S 9    S 10   S 12
Haines index....2      2      2
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL decreasing to 1400 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 3 mph shifting to the northeast
                    after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (65500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (1400
                    knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........73     73     73     58     58     58
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     50     30     30     30
LAL.............5      5      5      3      3      3
Temp............77     71     65     62     59     58
RH..............50     61     75     84     93     96
20 ft wind......S 7    S 4    S 1    S 1    NW 0   N 1
20 ft wind gust.15     5
Mix hgt (ft)....6600   6600   6600   1400   1400   1400
Transport wind..S 12   S 9    S 5    S 1    E 2    NE 3
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................4 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6700-7300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 2 mph shifting to the southwest
                    early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (36600-47800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........39        39        72        72
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).30        30        60        60
LAL.............4         4         5         5
Temp............55        70        84        83
RH..............100       63        40        41
20 FT wind......NE 2G5    SE 2G5    S 6G10    S 7G15
Mix hgt (ft)....6700      6700      7300      7300
Transport wind..NE 2      S 5       S 7       S 8
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1713065.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us


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