Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FNUS74 KFWD 201759
FWSFWD

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANGER HILL...TFS MERKEL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON JANUARY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST AT THE FIRE SITE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ON
SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ON
SUNDAY.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER AS THEY RETURN TO A WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY COME THROUGH DRY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF JANUARY WITHOUT MANY OPPORTUNITIES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN SIGHT AT THIS TIME.


.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 7700-9200 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
                    10500-12200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 8800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 38
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........60     63     67     71
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............63     70     72     68
RH..............41     33     30     33
20 FT WIND......SW 14  SW 16  SW 16  SW 14
20 FT WIND GUST.20     25     25     20
MIX HGT (FT)....5500   9200   12200  8800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 31  SW 37  SW 38  SW 37
HAINES INDEX....4      6      6      6

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 35
                    TO 36 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........73     63     52     42     44     47
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
TEMP............66     59     55     54     51     47
RH..............36     45     49     45     48     58
20 FT WIND......SW 13  SW 12  SW 13  W 14   W 16   W 18
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     20     25     25     30
MIX HGT (FT)....7100   2700   500    500    400    200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 35   SW 28  SW 25  W 29   W 32   W 36
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      5

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 21 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 37 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........49     43     37     31     25     20
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............46     46     50     55     61     62
RH..............63     63     52     41     31     28
20 FT WIND......NW 20  NW 18  NW 18  NW 20  NW 21  NW 16
20 FT WIND GUST.30     30     30     30     30     25
MIX HGT (FT)....100    M      M      M      M      M
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 37  M      M      M      M      M
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      5      5      5

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
COOLER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

.DAY 8 THROUGH 10 OUTLOOK...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE END OF JANUARY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WINDS ARE NEXT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG AT THIS TIME.


$$
FORECASTER...STALLEY
REQUESTED BY...MIRA PETERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700590.0/FWD
.EMAIL MPETERS@TFS.TAMU.EDU



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