Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 221458
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Black River...TNC
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
1058 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on August 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Warm and humid weather will prevail through mid week. An
approaching cold front will bring increasing storms over the
area late Wednesday into Thursday. Canadian high pressure will
bring an early fall feel Friday and into the weekend. Breezy
conditions may develop late Sunday into Monday, as a tropical
low passes offshore and interacts with the Canadian high.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable

Fog potential for tonight...Low

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 5-11 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max Mixing Hgt......5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......51404 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........10.
Max ADI.............44.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........36  59  54  57  57  56
Weather cov.....ISO SCT ISO     ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW      RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO SCT ISO     ISO ISO
Temp............88  89  90  90  90  89
RH..............67  63  61  61  62  64
CHC Pcpn (%)....20  30  20  10  20  20
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   4   5   4   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5       5       10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.0
Trans Wnd Dir...W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans Wnd Spd...6   6   7   8   9   10
Haines Index....4   4   4   4   4   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..26  28  34  43  50  51
Stability.......C   C   D   D   D   C
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   1   1
ADI.............23  26  22  26  31  44
Aparnt Tmp (F)..98  100 100 101 100 99
Sfc pres (in)...004 004 994 994 994 994

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent), then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent), then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening,
                    becoming light and variable. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Min Mixing Hgt......200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 9 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......1150 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........8.
Min ADI.............2.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........64  41  21  42  52  48  17  15  34  19  13  17
Weather cov.....ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO
Temp............87  85  82  81  80  79  78  78  77  76  76  76
RH..............68  73  77  81  84  86  87  88  90  91  92  94
CHC Pcpn (%)....20  20  10  10  0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  10          5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 1.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Trans Wnd Dir...SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans Wnd Spd...9   8   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
Haines Index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..31  12  2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Stability.......C   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   F
LVORI...........3   3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   8   8   8
ADI.............35  5   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   2
Aparnt Tmp (F)..96  93  89  86  84  83  78  78  77  76  76  76
Sfc pres (in)...994 994 992 992 992 992 992 992 988 988 988 988

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    scattered showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the morning.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max Mixing Hgt......5700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 14 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......74060 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........8.
Max ADI.............56.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........7      27     37     48     58     61
Weather cov.....ISOLTD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............75     77     82     87     89     90
RH..............96     93     77     66     62     61
CHC Pcpn (%)....20     30     30     30     40     40
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 5   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.       10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....100    300    2100   4200   5600   5400
Transport wind..SW 5   SW 6   SW 8   SW 10  SW 12  SW 14
Haines Index....4      3      3      3      4      4
VR MPH-FT*1000..0      1      17     43     64     74
Stability.......F      C      C      D      D      C
LVORI...........8      6      3      3      1      1
ADI.............2      5      22     28     38     56
Aparnt Tmp (F)..75     77     89     96     99     100
Sfc pres (in)...29.88  29.85  29.85  29.85  29.78  29.78

$$
Forecaster...Colby
Requested by...Angie Carl
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714695.0/ILM
.EMAIL acarl@tnc.org



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