Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FNUS76 KMFR 022251
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR NATIONAL CREEK COMPLEX...USFS RRF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
351 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1520 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
A FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD AND OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OVER THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
THEN EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

ON FRIDAY, A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING  A MOIST AND  SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE  IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OF CONCERN,
IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY, THEN
THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE COULD INCREASE AND BECOME MORE THAN ISOLATED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ON FRIDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH...LOWERING TO
                     0 TO 1 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN
                     BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
                     NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                     EVENING OVER THE RIDGES. .
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH...LOWERING TO
                     4 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN
                     BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
                     NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH OVER THE
                     RIDGES IN THE EARLY EVENING.
CWR.................7 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST 0 TO 1 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                     BECOMING NORTHWEST 1 TO 2 MPH LATE IN
                     THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST
                     1 TO 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 2 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                     BECOMING NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH LATE IN
                     THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                     6 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

.FORECAST DAY 3 ...
.FRIDAY...
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS 53 TO 60. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
2 TO 5 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING, BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 7 TO 14 MPH IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH OVER THE RIDGES IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN 50 PERCENT.


$$
FORECASTER...CLARSTROM
REQUESTED BY...RUTH JOHNSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150902.NATIO.01/MFR



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