Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 131047
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR AREA 45...CHERRY POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
647 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BURN AREA TODAY. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SOUTHERLY BACKGROUND FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND SLOWLY
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............11  13  14  21  24  20  13  12
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................67  72  74  75  77  78  77  76
RH..................73  61  55  54  48  47  48  50
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   6   8   9   9   10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20
LVORI...............3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................4   40  49  42  47  48  49  49
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 17 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............11     14     18     27     34     38
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74     69     66     64     62     61
RH..................55     66     73     78     81     84
20 FT WIND..........S 9    S 6    S 6    S 5    S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10     10     10     10
LVORI...............1      3      3      4      4      4
ADI.................44     25     11     6      6      7
HAINES INDEX........5      5      5      5      5      5

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 23 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............43     47     54     63     69     72
WEATHER COV.........                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................60     60     68     73     75     75
RH..................90     90     73     62     60     60
20 FT WIND..........S 5    S 5    S 7    S 10   S 12   S 11
20 FT WIND GUST.....       10     10     15     20     15
LVORI...............5      5      3      1      1      1
ADI.................12     12     24     53     59     69
HAINES INDEX........5      5      5      4      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...KENNEDY
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MANGUS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140413.AREA4.01/MHX






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