Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 241237
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Hyde Park...USFWS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
837 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over the area will produce light and variable winds
this morning. The high will move offshore this afternoon with winds
becoming south. The high will remain offshore
through the weekend with the next cold frontal system moving
through the area Tuesday night followed by a dry cold frontal
passage on Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area
Thursday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 6 to 8 mph gusting to
                    15 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 mph early...increasing to southwest
                    16 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 86400 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 68.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.40 to 30.54 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............10  10  11  15  22  26  30  37  41
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............38  46  55  59  63  65  67  67  67
RH.................85  73  59  53  50  46  45  47  47
20 FT wind dir.....SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd.....3   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust....5           15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)......1.1 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2
Transp wind dir....SE  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd....5   10  14  14  13  12  13  15  16
LVORI..............3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI................7   24  43  49  50  49  55  64  68
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..6   20  39  51  57  62  69  79  84
Stability class....F   F   F   B   B   B   B   B   B

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 1494 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Min 3.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.34 to 30.40 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............37  30  26  22  14  10  10  8   8   9   11  12
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............65  62  59  56  55  53  53  53  53  52  52  52
RH.................50  58  64  72  77  83  86  86  86  89  89  89
20 FT wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd.....8   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust....15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)......3.6 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd....15  13  10  10  10  10  9   8   7   6   6   6
LVORI..............1   2   3   3   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
ADI................52  8   7   7   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3
Haines index.......4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..52  24  3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   1   1
Stability class....B   B   B   B   B   B   F   F   F   F   F   F

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 5200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph...increasing to 12 to 18
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 82110 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Max 72.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.25 to 30.36 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............14     17     35     43     49     46
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............51     53     61     68     72     72
RH.................93     89     72     59     49     50
20 ft wind.........SW 4   S 5    SW 7   SW 8   SW 8   S 8
20 ft wind gust....5             10     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft).......300    300    2900   4500   5200   5100
Transport wind.....SW 5   S 6    SW 15  SW 18  SW 14  SW 12
LVORI..............6      6      3      1      1      1
ADI................2      4      47     72     58     50
Haines index.......4      4      4      4      5      5
VRate mph-ft/1000..1      1      43     82     72     62
Stability class....F      F      F      B      B      B

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy...then becoming mostly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph until early
                    morning...becoming light.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 804 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Min 1.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.22 to 30.27 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%)............45     46     47     52     65     67
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............70     64     60     58     56     54
RH.................55     67     78     81     83     94
20 ft wind.........S 7    S 5    S 5    S 4    S 3    S 3
20 ft wind gust....15                   5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft).......3500   300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind.....SW 12  S 10   S 10   S 7    S 3    S 3
LVORI..............1      3      4      4      5      7
ADI................38     7      7      5      2      1
Haines index.......5      4      4      4      5      4
VRate mph-ft/1000..38     3      3      2      1      1
Stability class....B      B      B      F      F      F

$$
Forecaster...Merrell
Requested by...Gregg Buckalew
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705125.0/MHX
.EMAIL gregg_buckalew@fws.gov


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