Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
758
FNUS73 KPAH 260939
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Essman Rx...USFS MARK TWAIN NF
National Weather Service Paducah KY
339 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Minimum relative humidity thresholds will be less critical today versus
this past Saturday, as moisture continues to be transported into the area.
Depending on the rate of increasing cloud cover and rainfall across the
prescribed burn area, minimum relative humidity readings may be delayed
by more than an hour. Much better relative humidity recovery is expected
with the onset of the rain tonight.

Although rainfall amounts will be marginal on Monday, mixing heights will
remain below smoke management thresholds through at least 9 am CST. Increasing
relative humidity values will retard effective burning as rain chances
increase throughout the remainder of the day.

Relative humidity and other fire weather parameters should improve for
prescribed burns following the a cold frontal passage on Wednesday, peaking
during the Thursday through Saturday time period.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........34 at ignition...Max 51.
RH..................58 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 8 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 800-2600 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2800-3800 ft AGL late in the
                    morning.
Transport winds.....South 0 to 7 mph increasing to 16 to 24 mph
                    early in the morning.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............34  38  42  45  48  50  51  51  50  49
RH..............58  52  46  43  40  38  37  38  42  43
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.16  23  24  24  23  23  23  23  23  23

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain in the
                    evening, then rain likely after midnight.
CWR.................49 percent increasing to 64 percent after
                    midnight.
Temperature.........Min 41.
RH..................Max 98 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......1600-3300 ft AGL decreasing to 1000-1700 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph decreasing to 9 to 18 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50     50     50     60     60     60
Temp............47     46     44     42     41     41
RH..............47     57     68     79     87     89
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     E      E
20 FT wind spd..5      3      3      3      3      3
20 FT wind gust.       5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   1600   1000   1700   1500   1500
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.21     12     12     18     17     15

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 58.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......1500-2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph increasing to 23 to 29 mph
                    late in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............41     43     48     54     57     58
RH..............92     93     85     70     67     66
20 FT wind dir..E      SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..3      5      5      6      6      6
20 FT wind gust.5
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   1500   2000   2600   2700   2200
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.14     12     13     17     21     25

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Christina Barba
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702905.0/PAH
.EMAIL christinajbarba@fs.fed.us



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.