Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
000
FNUS73 KPAH 280039
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR TRAIL OF TEARS...MO DEPT OF NATURAL RESOURCES/ DIV OF STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
639 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CST ON JANUARY 28.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND THEY MAY PUSH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
TIMES.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 48.
RH..................59 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH...GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1700-2200
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH.

TIME (CST)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............45  47  47  47  46
RH..............59  58  57  58  59
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   7   8   9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  15  15  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.15  17  18  18  16
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   4   4

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 41.
RH..................MAX 94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH...GUSTS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....              RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............45     44     43     43     42     42
RH..............61     64     72     80     84     89
20 FT WIND......S 5    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6    SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1800   1400   1300   1200   1200   1100
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14   S 14   S 16   S 17   S 17   S 15
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....4      4      3      2      2      2

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 48.
RH..................MIN 62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH...GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4400 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TEMP............42        43        45        46
RH..............94        85        75        64
20 FT WIND......SW 6G15   NW 7G15   NW 7G15   NW 7G15
MIX HGT (FT)....1200      2700      3600      4200
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 12     NW 18     NW 23     NW 22
CWR.............0         0         0         0
HAINES INDEX....3         4         3         3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150128.TRAIL.01/PAH







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.