Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FNUS72 KRAH 211515
FWSRAH

Spot Forecast for WEWO SNA...NC State Parks
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1115 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on March 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact this NWS office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A broad low pressure system situated along an increasingly west-east
oriented cold front is expected to progress southward through central NC
as a backdoor cold front late this afternoon into tonight. Expect mostly
sunny skies and dry conditions through the majority of today due to a
strong capping inversion assoc/w an unmodified elevated mixed layer advecting
into the Carolinas from the west. Isolated (along/north of Hwy 64) to scattered
(south of Hwy 64) convection will begin to develop along the front and/or
convection will begin to propagate downstream into central NC in the 21-00Z time
frame, however, the best potential for convection will be south of Hwy 64 between
00Z this evening to 09Z Wed morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......2400-3800 ft AGL...increasing to 4500-5200 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 14 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................33...increasing to 53 early in the
                    afternoon...then decreasing to 26 late.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Visibility..........7.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46  50  49  48  53  52  56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10
Temp............66  69  72  75  77  77  78
RH..............56  53  51  46  45  47  48
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 3.1 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.2 5.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  W   W
Transp wind spd.9   10  12  13  13  14  13
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............33  33  33  53  53  53  26
Visibility (sm).7   7   7   7   7   7   7

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable...then
                    becoming north 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL...decreasing to 300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 10 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................26...decreasing to 6 early in the evening.
Pcpn amount.........0.39 inches.
Visibility..........6.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........61  69  78  74  80  88  89  90  91  91  91  91
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  20  60  60  70  70  70  70  50  50  10
Temp............76  73  69  67  65  63  62  61  59  58  56  55
RH..............50  55  63  68  75  84  84  84  87  83  83  86
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N   N   NE  NE  N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   3   2   2   3   4   5   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  5   10  10  15  15  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N   N   NE  NE  N   N
Transp wind spd.10  7   3   3   5   6   7   8   9   10  10  10
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
ADI.............26  26  2   2   2   4   4   4   9   9   9   10
Visibility (sm).7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7

$$
Forecaster...VINCENT
Requested by...Thomas Crate
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704798.0/RAH
.EMAIL thomas.crate@ncparks.gov



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