Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 042134
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR TINKER MTN 3 FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
534 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1723 EDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE BURN AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST...BUT
LITTLE OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE BURN AREA.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE FROM THE 50S
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AFTER THIS EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 8 PM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER 8 PM EDT.

VENTILATION RATES AND DISPERSION WILL BE GOOD THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A
TYPICAL DIURNAL BIAS...BUT MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 16 MPH...DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............39  34  33  32  29  25  20  16  15  17  21  27
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH
TEMP................86  83  82  80  78  76  75  74  73  72  71  71
RH..................48  54  57  61  65  70  72  74  75  77  78  79
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.4 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  10  10  12  15  16  13  8   5   3   3   3
CWR.................20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 14 TO 16
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............32  34  35  36  40  46  54  59  61  60  56  50
WEATHER COV.........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................70  69  71  74  77  80  81  83  84  85  86  85
RH..................82  85  79  72  65  58  54  51  48  47  47  48
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  15  15  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 2.1 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3   3   5   7   10  14  15  16  16  16  16  15
CWR.................0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20

$$
FORECASTER...BEASLEY
REQUESTED BY...WAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150804.TINKE.03/RNK



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