Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 241739
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1238 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN HAD OVERSPREAD MOST OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND WAS NOW CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
:
24 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS ENDING 7AM THIS MONDAY MORNING
RANGED FROM 0.10 INCH OR LESS ACROSS SOME OF THE WESTERN NEW YORK
BASINS AND IN MAINE...AND GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH ELSEWHERE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEW YORK AND CONNECTICUT. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 40S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH...A BIT COOLER IN FAR NORTHERN
MAINE.
:
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE AND WILL BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED ELSEWHERE.
:
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.65 INCH EAST AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO.
:
TOP TEN 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION POINT TOTALS ENDING 7AM MONDAY
MORNING...
:
LOCATION                     AMOUNT IN INCHES
:
TANNERSVILLE NEW YORK                1.30
PHOENICIA NEW YORK                   1.16
PEEKSKILL NEW YORK                   1.14
WHITE PLAINS NEW YORK                1.10
DANBURY NEW YORK                     1.09
SOUTH SALEM NEW YORK                 1.09
BEARSVILLE NEW YORK                  1.02
COLD SPRINGS 8.1 NE NEW YORK         1.00
UNION CITY CONNECTICUT               1.00
ROCK HILL NEW YORK                   0.97

:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
NERFC FORECAST POINTS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE HAVE STARTED RESPONDING TO THE RAINS THAT OVERSPREAD THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RESPONDING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  RIVER RISES OF UP TO 2 FEET
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN VERMONT AND EASTERN NEW YORK RISING UP TO 3 FEET.
:
IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK, WHERE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FELL LAST
WEEK, THE RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN AN
ACCELERATED SNOW MELT PROCESS THAT HAS INCREASED RIVER LEVELS
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  CREEKS IN THE URBAN BUFFALO AREA,
INCLUDING CAZENOVIA CREEK, BUFFALO CREEK, ELLICOTT CREEK, AND
CAYUGA CREEK, HAVE EITHER REACHED THEIR MINOR FLOOD STAGES OR ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THOSE STAGES SHORTLY.  NONE OF THESE LOCATIONS
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE...7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE NERFC REGION ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE-NOVEMBER.  EXCEPTIONS TO THIS TREND ARE IN THE
UPPER HUDSON RIVER BASIN AND IN THE PAWCATUCK RIVER BASIN IN
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND/CONNECTICUT, WHERE FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO
MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SNOW MELTING IN FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN ENDING NOVEMBER 25.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHEAST -- 3 HOUR GUIDANCE BY STATE
AND COUNTIES WITH LOWEST GUIDANCE VALUES:

$$
:
THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 2 2014.
IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A PRODUCT AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/BRIEFINGS
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:         NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                  BILL SAUNDERS





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