Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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AGUS71 KTIR 271502
HMDTIR
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1002 AM EST Monday, February 27, 2017

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern will become increasingly unsettled this week as a
series of waves traverse the Ohio Valley. The first disturbance, which is
crossing the basin today will be the weakest of the bunch, only bringing
scattered light rainfall to parts of the region.  A warm front will lift
through the Ohio Valley Tuesday bringing more widespread precipitation, but
the heaviest rainfall will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong
cold front pushes through, tapping into abundant moisture likely leading to
strong or possibly severe thunderstorm activity, especially across the
southern half of the basin.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
The threat of flooding will be minimal until midweek when heavy rainfall is
forecast to affect the region. Some minor flooding is forecast in the
western Ohio Valley later this week, but flooding could affect other parts
of the basin as well depending on where the heaviest rains set up.
Soils are relatively dry for this time of year and evapotranspiration is
unseasonably high as well, which together could help limit the runoff
associated with the forecast heavy rainfall event.

...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Light snow in the northeast basin produced a hundredth or two in western NY
and western PA on Sunday. Light rain moved into the lower Ohio Valley
Monday morning with amounts around 0.20" or less.

...60-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Much of the basin will receive 1-2" through Wednesday. The bulk of the
rainfall will fall late in the period. Locally heavier amounts over 2"
will be possible in thunderstorms. In general, the heaviest totals are
forecast along and south of the Ohio River, but when dealing with
convective thunderstorms the overall confidence in amounts and placement is
lower.

...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
None.

Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address:  http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation

$$
jm




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