Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
AGUS71 KTIR 061816
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
116 PM EST Friday, December 6, 2013
A large scale winter system, impacting much of the middle and eastern US is
bringing a large area of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow to much of the
Ohio valley as well. Moderate to heavy amounts of rain is driving slight to
decent rises to much of the southern half of the Ohio River forecast basin.
Snow and mixed precipitation is the driver for much of the northern and western
halves of the basin. This will be slowly swathing through during the day today
with an end to most precip by Saturday morning.
There will be a brief break in the action on Saturday before another
strong low pressure system moves through on Sunday. This system is expected
to produce another round of heavy rain over the same area through Sunday
night. In this system`s wake will be a period of drying out, but also bitterly
cold weather for much of the Midwest.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
The flood potential will increase over the next several days as the
aforementioned weather systems affect the basin. The flood chances are
mainly along and south of the Ohio River at this point. This first system
(Thursday-Friday night) will serve to moisten up the soils, while
the 2nd system expected Sunday/Sunday night will be the event that
produces the possibility of minor to moderate flooding at several points.
There is a slight chance that some locations could reach major flood stage.
The greatest threat will be in KY, but parts of TN, southern/eastern OH,
WV, and southwest PA could be affected as well.
...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Heavy swath of precipitation, with amounts an inch and a half to two inches fell
in an axis running from middle TN, eastern KY, southeast OH, and western WV.
Amounts tapered quickly as one heads a bit further west from this swath, with
amounts getting to a quarter to a half inch.
...72-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Heavy precip of 2" to 3" is forecast along an axis extending from middle TN,
up through KY, and into southern OH and western/northern WV, and
southwestern PA. Amounts taper off on either side of this axis.
...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Detailed precipitation graphics and other maps are available on the HAS Support
Page at this web address: http://weather.gov/ohrfc/HAS
QPF from OHRFC, HPC, et al., can be seen at weather.gov/ohrfc/Forecast.php