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000
AGXX40 KNHC 241752
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues from the W Atlc along 28-29N and across
central FL to the offshore waters of central TX. Morning
obs showed seas 1-2 ft above guidance across the TX coastal
waters with buoys 5-6 ft generated from fresh Sly flow overnight.
Elsewhere anticyclonic flow around the ridge was producing 3-4
ft seas SW portions and 1-3 ft E half. N extent of a tropical
wave is moving across the far SW Gulf and has enhanced and
maintained nocturnal cnvtn from Yucatan thermal trough of
yesterdays cycle. This cnvtn will shift NW and inland from
Veracruz to NE Mexico, with wind and seas likely to be slightly
higher than guidance.

This ridge alignment expected to persist through Tuesday night.
The pressure gradient will slacken thereafter as a trough or weak
front passes into the NE Gulf. Gentle winds and seas of 2 ft or
less will then prevail across the basin by the end of the week as
high pres settles across the N central Gulf and W Atlc ridge
shifts E into central Atlc.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Modest pres gradient continues across the basin today with W Atlc
ridge centered on 1023 mb high near 29N60W. Low lat Ely wave is
moving across S central Carib attm and enhancing trades there per
recent scat pass where seas are 7-10 ft. Squalls trail this wave
across the SE Carib S of 14.5N where a 25-30 kt llvl jet is
present. Seas there 5-6 ft. Next wave also low lat and moving
into Windwards attm with associated weather occurring behind
wave. ENE winds 15-20 kt depicted N of this wave moving into the
islands per recent scat pass where seas are 5-6 ft per 41099 and
suggested by 42060. Atlc ridge will build slightly across the
basin this afternoon and tonight behind first wave in central
Carib to nudge nocturnal wind max off of Colombia to just below
gale force per latest GFS runs. GFS briefly shows gales at 30m at
06Z tonight with seas building to 12-13 ft. This broad wind surge will
expand westward to near 82W by Tuesday morning in the wake of the
departing tropical wave, and then generally remain slightly W of
normal max wind location through Wed as next tropical waves moves
across S Carib. Atlc ridge to build W into the Bahamas by Fri
and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across all but NW
portions.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Ridging extends from 1023 mb high pressure near 29N60W to FL
coast along about 27.5N. Moderate anticyclonic winds prevail
around the outer periphery of the ridge from N of Puerto Rico
through the Bahamas, to offshore of the Carolinas, where seas
are 3 to 5 ft increasing to 6-8 ft off the Carolinas. A TUTT cell
moving slowly NE away from NE FL coastal waters with TUTT axis SW
across N central FL is combining with ample lingering moisture to
produce very active cnvtn across the NW waters that should linger
through tonight. Leading edge of moisture and associated llvl
wind surge with wave energy passing N of NE Carib past 36 hrs now
blowing up just to the SE of the TUTT related cnvtn and will
shift N into the evening.

A trough will then move in from the E-SE through mid- week,
weakening the ridge with the parent high lifting N of the area.
This will allow for a weakened pressure gradient with winds
diminishing, and seas subsiding slightly through Thursday. A
frontal system is forecast to move through the SE United States
by the end of the week which will increase the pressure gradient,
especially across NW portions where winds will increase to fresh
Friday night.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.



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