Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 031730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS
BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF AT 28N94W
AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE MS DELTA. ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF WITH 1-2 FT SEAS THROUGHOUT EXPECT 2-3
APPROACH TO YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 10-15
KT RANGE EACH EVENING. ISOLATED TS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND E-
CENTRAL WATERS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS EVENING AS
DRY UPPER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS
BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO SE CUBA
WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROUGH AT 21N84W. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS SHIFTING E INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND IS DENOTED IN THE CURRENT
WEATHER GRIDS AND CONTINUED THROUGH 72 HOURS. USED MODEL
BLENDING TO TONE DOWN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE GFS A TAD RESULTING IN
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A NW-SE ORIENTATED
TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT E WINDS...SEAS 6-8 FT...WITHIN
240 NM OF THE N COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA EACH NIGHT.
FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF
18N E OF 75W AND MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH TAPPING ABUNDANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
CARIBBEAN CONVECTION AND SPREADING IT NNE ACROSS THE ATLC W OF
68W UNDER AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 69-79W.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SCT RW/ISOL TS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. FURTHER E IS ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING NNE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 25N61W WITH E-SE
15-20 KT FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E OF ITS AXIS THROUGH THU. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO NE FL. A SMALL AREA OF E-SE
15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE ATLC
APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. OTHERWISE
E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE AND SE-S 5-10 KT FLOW
OBSERVED WITHIN AND N OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E
TONIGHT AND THU AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG 76W...AND
THEN MEANDERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...AND IF SO...THEN SHIFT NE ALONG THE
TROUGH. EXPECT THESE LOWS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY LIGHT WINDS
WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THE MAIN THREAT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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