Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
000
AGXX40 KNHC 271657
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1257 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MINOR MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FIRST 12 HOURS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING.
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION PRECEDES THE FRONT AND IS DENOTED IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. THE POST-FRONTAL GALE WARNING VERIFIED BY OBS
FROM SACV4 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL ABRUPTLY
END THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING TONIGHT WITH N-NE
WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE GULF WATERS AT SUNRISE ON
SAT. EXPECT NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 26N ON
SUN...EXCEPT NE-E 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE APPROACH TO
THE YUCATAN PASSAGE. THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 20-25 KT NE FLOW
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL RESUME AGAIN ON
SUN EVENING.

A POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT ENE OVER THE NW GULF
WATERS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ENE PASSING ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE ON SAT NIGHT...LEAVING A RIDGE SW TO NE MEXICO. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE ON SUN WITH THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPA BAY
ON MON. THE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN SHIFT W AND MEANDER OVER THE
NE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO LA.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW GULF
WATERS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON TO 5-10 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE YUCATAN PASSAGE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN..AND NOW EXPECT THIS FRONT TO REACH FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE E GULF OF HONDURAS ON SAT EVENING...THEN LOSE
IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE NICARAGUA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND
FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SUN EVENING. STILL EXPECT A
SWATCH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR
JAMAICA ON MON MORNING...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX.

FURTHER TO THE S EXPECT THE PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGING N OF THE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...TO SUPPORT
STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE GRADIENT THEN RELAXING A LITTLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO THE FL STRAITS AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. FRESH EASTERLIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S
OF THE RIDGE. S-SW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 30N WITH
SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE N OF THE RIDGE. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT THIS EVENING N OF 27N
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING. NW FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT
THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA ON SAT EVENING...FROM 31N60W
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN MORNING...FROM 31N58W TO
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUN EVENING...THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM 25N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON MON EVENING THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY WED. A W TO E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 27N IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MON...THEN SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N ON TUE.
EXPECT A SW-W 15-25 KT WIND SHIFT TO DEVELOP N OF 29N ON MON
NIGHT ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
THE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT TO WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N56W TO 29N65W...THEN STALL ALONG 27N TO THE FL COAST ON TUE.
AN E-W RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG 29N N OF THE FRONTAL REMNANTS MID
WEEK.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.