Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 061944
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2016

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 10 2016 - 12Z WED DEC 14 2016

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE ALMOST NOTHING BUT HIGH PRESSURE
FOR AK... ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS A RATHER STABLE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO QPF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE. AN UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE TO FORM A
LARGE DOME OF UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
VERY STRONG UPSTREAM PAC SYSTEMS WILL ATTEMPT TO KNOCK DOWN THIS
POSITIVE ANOMALY BUT WILL NOT SUCCEED. EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS
START OFF ANOMALOUSLY COLD... ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN/SRN TIER OF
THE STATE... GRADUAL MODIFYING WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS LATE IN THE FCST. THE GUIDANCE
OVERALL HAS THIS THEME WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES AND WPC STARTED OFF
WITH A 12Z GFS AND 00Z/06 ECMWF AND INCLUDED THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN
AND 06Z GEFS/NAEFS MEANS MORE AND MORE OVER TIME TO REDUCE THE
SMALL SCALE NOISE.

MUSHER

$$





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