Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 041804
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 PM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

VALID 12Z SUN MAY 08 2016 - 12Z THU MAY 12 2016

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF GENERALLY COMPATABLE GUIDANCE
FROM THE 12 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF AND 00 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS DAYS 4-5 SUN-MON. THE LATEST 12 UTC ECMWF SEEMS
ALSO PRETTY MUCH IN LINE. PREFER TO FOCUS WPC BLEND WEIGHTING MORE
IN FAVOR OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DAYS 6-8 AMID GROWING FORECAST
SPREAD.

...FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

TROUGH ENERGIES FROM THE SRN BERING SEA AND NRN PACIFIC EFFECT THE
ALEUTIANS/SW AK THEN GULF OF AK THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY-MID NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME INFLUENCE/PCPN...BUT THE MAIN STORM FOCUS WILL
SHIFT UPSTREAM WITH SLOW APPROACH OF A DEEP ALEUTIANS/SRN BERING
SEA LOW THAT SPREADS WRAPPING PCPN AND MARITIME CONCERNS ACROSS
THAT REGION THEN SW/WRN AK DAYS 5-8. A LEAD IMPULSE SUN LIFTING
OVER NW/NRN AK OFFERS LIMITED PCPN PRIOR TO SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
BUILDING ALOFT FROM THE ERN GULF OF AK TO THE INTERIOR/N SLOPE
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE MAIN BERING SEA LOW IN A MORE BLOCKY
PATTERN. THE RIDGE WILL USHER IN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND.

SCHICHTEL

$$





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