Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 291744
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 02 2015 - 12Z SAT JUN 06 2015


AFTER MANY DAYS OF PREDICTING A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FOR
NEARLY ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS HAVE
NOW SETTLED ON A STORMIER REGIME FOR THE GULF, WITH THE EASTERLIES
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ANCHORAGE BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHWARD.
THE 06Z/29 GFS WAS STRONGLY CORRELATED WITH THE 00Z/29 ECENS MEAN,
MAKING IT AN ATTRACTIVE CHOICE AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST.
SUCH CROSS-MODEL AGREEMENT--ESPECIALLY WHEN ANCHORED BY BROAD
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT--IS ALWAYS AUSPICIOUS. THE 00Z/29 ECMWF WAS NOT
AS WELL CORRELATED WITH ITS MEAN, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE
CURRENT BLEND. BESIDES THE INCREASED WINDS, WAVES, AND
PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF, THE SHIFT IN THE MODELS NOW MEANS THAT
INSTEAD OF A HOT, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT FOR THE SOUTH, WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND PANHANDLE.


CISCO

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