Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 241759
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1258 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2017

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 28 2017 - 12Z WED FEB 01 2017

THE CYCLONE OVER THE BERING SEA DAY 4/SAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND PIVOT NORTHWARD OVER THE SUBSEQUENT DAYS WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD
FROM NUNAVUT HELPS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST. A COUPLE DEEP CYCLONES ARE THEN
POSSIBLE FOR NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AS WELL AS NEAR 170W AS THE
MULTITUDE OF SHORT WAVELENGTH ELEMENTS CONSOLIDATE INTO A HIGH
AMPLITUDE AND LIKELY MORE PREDICTABLE PATTERN OVERALL. THUS...THE
PREDICTABILITY IS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT LOWER IN THE DAYS PRECEDING
THE AMPLIFICATION...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF CONSIDERED THE ODD MODEL
OUT WITH ITS UNUSUALLY DEEP CYCLONE NEARING KODIAK BY 12Z
SAT...WITH THE WEAKER CAMP OF SOLUTIONS MORE PREFERRED AS THE
PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDS. OTHERWISE...
A MODEL CONSENSUS INVOLVING A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED FOR ALL DAYS. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE
ANTICIPATED PATTERN IS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE PERIODICALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NEAR OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THE CYCLONE NEAR 170W MATERIALIZED BY DAYS
7-8/TUE-WED...A LARGE AND STRONG WIND FIELD AND HIGH SEAS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY IT.

JAMES

$$





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