Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 091920
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
220 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM FEBRUARY 09/12 UTC: LARGE SCALE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE USA/GULF OF MEXICO AND MID-UPPER RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH WEST. AN ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH WILL HOWEVER REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT ITS
EFFECTS ON THE WEATHER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE MID-UPPER
RIDGE IS TO DOMINATE MOST OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN TO SUSTAIN CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS AT MID-LEVELS.
MOST REMARKABLE ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG THE FRONT AND
SHEAR LINE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC FEATURES. LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS COSTA
RICA/WESTERN PANAMA AND NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. AMOUNTS ARE TO PEAK
IN COSTA RICA ON THROUGH FRIDAY...AND ON NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
HISPANIOLA AFTER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FRONT IS MEANDERING ACROSS SE BAHAMAS/SE CUBA INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WHILE WEAKENING. A FAST PROGRESSING FRONT IS TO REPLACE
THE OLD BOUNDARY. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...IT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SE CUBA/NW OF JAMAICA
INTO NE NICARAGUA IT WILL THEN STALL WITH TAIL TO START
RETROGRESSING TO THE NORTHWEST. SHEAR LINE WILL MEANDER FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA
THROUGH FRIDAY...TO THEN START LOSING DEFINITION AND RETURN AS A
TRADE WIND WAVE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS/EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG EASTERN CENTRAL
AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO SPEEDS
ABOVE 25KT AT 850HPA. PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA WILL BE APPROACHING 50MM AND INCREASING. THIS WILL
SUSTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS STRONG
MOIST WINDS INTERACT WITH OROGRAPHY. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MAXIMA PEAKING AT 40-80MM/DAY ON WEDNESDAY. NOTE THAT ISOLATED
LARGER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

SHEAR LINE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
JAMAICA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS. EXPECTING MAXIMA
IN THE ORDER OF 15-20MM/DAY...PEAKING ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL START ORGANIZING LATE ON
TUESDAY WHEN EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY UNDER OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. AMOUNTS ARE TO INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND 30-60MM/DAY DURING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

A WAVE IN THE TRADES IS ORGANIZING IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AS AN EASTERLY WAVE TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THE ARC
OF THE ANTILLES ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING MAXIMA  OF 20-30MM/DAY ACROSS
EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA. AMOUNTS ARE TO DECREASE AS WAVE MOVES INTO
A REGION DOMINATED BY DRIER MID-LEVELS. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY INTO SURINAME ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY
ACROSS THE FRENCH ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA ON
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WINDWARD...LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BARBADOS. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN ANDEAN AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WITH MAXIMA GENERALLY
UNDER 15-20MM/DAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC.
INITIAL    24    36    48    60    72    84    96         TYPE
NONE

HUNTE...BMS (BARBADOS)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$




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