Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 271141
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
740 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VALID 00Z THU MAY 28 2015 - 00Z THU JUN 04 2015


FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS INDICATE THAT HAWAI`I WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. BOTH THE
00Z/27 ECMWF AND THE 06Z/27 GFS PROGNOSTICATE THE TROUGH TO BEGIN
TO SHEAR TO THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A CONSIDERABLE POOL OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS SHOULD KEEP THE STATE UNSETTLED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY. FIVE-DAY
QPF TOTALS THROUGH 00Z/02 TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY 0.10-0.25", WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO THE FAVORED TERRAIN. THE ECMWF IS ESPECIALLY
WET OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND, WITH UPWARDS OF 8.00" DURING
THAT PERIOD. WHETHER SUCH HIGH AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED OWES MUCH TO
WHERE THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING SETS UP WITH RELATION TO THE
TERRAIN.


CISCO

$$




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