Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 221215
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
814 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017

VALID 00Z SAT SEP 23 2017 - 00Z SAT SEP 30 2017

A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT JUST NORTHEAST
OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT THE SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT OF A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC SHOULD DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY.  BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  DESPITE SOME SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY
THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
DURING THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT OVER HAWAII AND CURRENTLY KEEP ANY FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.


GERHARDT


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