Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 191830
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID APR 19/1200 UTC THRU APR 23/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST TUESDAY
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY NRN MAINE MONDAY
DEEP CYCLONE DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, AND A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED TO IRON OUT SMALLER SCALE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.


SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES/NEW ENG MON & TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  AVERAGE

THE 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN ARE STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM,
SHOWING THE MAIN LOW MIGRATING MORE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE CANADIAN HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS -- ADJUSTING AWAY FROM ITS BIAS --
ARGUING FOR A WEAKER SOLUTION.  THE PATTERN IN WHICH IT IS
EMBEDDED OTHERWISE FAVORS THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN AMPLITUDE WITH TIME
AS RIDGING UPSTREAM BUILDS.  THERE ARE TWO CLUSTERS SEEN IN THE
00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER
DOWN TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ARE
PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE CONTINUING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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