Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 281833
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT AUGUST 28 2015

SYNOPSIS: TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CURRENTLY NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND BE NEAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ONSHORE FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
ALASKA DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. DURING WEEK-2, AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

HAZARDS

FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MON-THU, AUG 31-SEP 3.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MON-WED, AUG 31-SEP 2.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON STATE, MON-TUE, AUG 31-SEP 1.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKAN AND KENAI PENINSULAS, AND KODIAK ISLAND,
MON, AUG 31.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA,
MON-WED, AUG 31-SEP 2.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
SAT-FRI, SEP 5-11.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY AUGUST 31 - FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 04: TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WHICH ON AUG
28 IS LOCATED NEAR 18N 69W IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS AND BE NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS EXECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND BE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENTH OF
THIS SYSTEM IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS)
IS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY-THURSDAY. HIGH WINDS (IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS) ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND REFER TO LOCAL NWS OFFICES FOR THE LATEST STATMENTS.



ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL LEADS TO POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.



LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ONSHORE FLOW AND LEAD
TO HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LEADS TO
HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS) FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKAN AND KENAI
PENINSULAS, AND KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY.





MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A HAZARD AREA IS NOT CURRENTLY SPECIFIED BUT ONGOING
FIRES ARE LEADING TO POOR AIR QUALITY FOR THE REGION.





NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SYSTEMS
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE VICINITY OF HAWAII. HURRICANE IGNACIO, WHICH ON AUG 28
IS LOCATED NEAR 14N AND 144W, IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAWAII.
BY EARLY MORNING AUG 31, HURRICANE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF HAWAII AND
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FROM THERE. POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON HAWAII INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN,
STRONG WINDS, AND SIGIFICANT WAVES. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM
NHC AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FOR SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 05 - FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 11: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS LEADS TO A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SEP 5-11.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP, VALID ON AUGUST 25, THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2 TO D4) DECREASED FROM 18.21 TO 18.07 PERCENT
ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. SINCE THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$




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