Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 281925
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 28 2015

SYNOPSIS: AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A SUBSEQUENT TRACK EAST. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.

HAZARDS

HEAVY SNOW ENDING ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN COLORADO, AND NEW MEXICO,
SAT, JAN 31.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, SAT, JAN 31.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, SAT AND TUE-WED, JAN 31
AND FEB 3-4.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND MIDWEST, SUN-TUE, FEB 1-3.

HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE,
SAT-MON, JAN 31-FEB 2.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL
U.S., THU-SUN, FEB 5-8.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 31 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 04: BEHIND AN EXITING SURFACE LOW,
MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
WHEN SUBZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR INTERIOR NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. THESE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES (BELOW -10 DEGREES F) ON SATURDAY
MORNING.



HEAVY SNOW (MORE THAN 8 INCHES ABOVE 8,000 FEET) IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH
SOUTH INTO MEXICO. GULF INFLOW ALONG WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (MORE THAN 1 INCH) ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
AND MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
HAZARDS CRITERIA.



THE HIGH RESOLUTION 6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY MORNING AND POSING A RISK OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE HIGH RESOLUTION 12Z GFS
MODEL INDICATES A LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW. DUE TO THE POOR MODEL CONTINUITY AND VERY LARGE SPREAD
AMONG 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW EMERGING
FROM CENTRAL U.S., A HEAVY SNOW HAZARD IS NOT POSTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE
NORTHEAST.



A 1040-HPA HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH FROM CANADA AND BRING MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF 12 DEGREES F OR MORE) TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON FEBRUARY 3 AND 4.



ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY FROM EASTERN ALASKA. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST NEAR YAKUTAT FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A DEEPENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCLEMENT
WEATHER TO COASTAL SOUTHERN ALASKA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 05 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 11: THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. FROM FEBRUARY 5-8 AS SOME 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
LARGE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CALIFORNIA DURING WEEK-2.



THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO TRACK EAST AND RESULT IN SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN WEEK-2. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY IN FUTURE HAZARDS OUTLOOKS AS IT POSES A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MORE SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE
EAST COAST.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED ON JANUARY 22, 2015 INDICATES A
VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2
TO D4) FROM 16.65 TO 16.97 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

$$




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