Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS

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120
FXUS02 KWNH 290656
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 12Z WED JUN 01 2016 - 12Z SUN JUN 05 2016

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND PATTERN
HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR 31N 79.5W AT 03 UTC AND
PACKED 40KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. BONNIE IS
FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST   INTO MIDWEEK AND ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FURTHER WEAKEN OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND LATER WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE
NHC AND EFFECTED NWS FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON BONNIE.

OTHERWISE...THE GRADUAL BUILDING ALOFT OF AN UNSETTLED AMPLIFIED
NERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND SHIELDING W-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW A SERIES OF IMPULSES ALSO
CARVE/MAINTAIN AN EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH ALOFT
AND QUITE WAVY SURFACE FRONT. SEPARATION DETAILS WITHIN THIS
TROUGH REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT AMPLITUDE AND SLOW TRANSLATION
FAVOR PERIODS OF DEEP GULF OF MEXICO THEN ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
FUEL SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY MEDIUM RANGE DOWNPOURS OVER THE
S-CENTRAL THROUGH E-CENTRAL TO ERN US.

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE 18
UTC GFS/GEFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION
OFFERS NEAR AVERAGE FORECAST PREDICTABILITY.

SCHICHTEL














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