Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

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000
FOPZ13 KNHC 240256
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   X(14)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X  15(15)  20(35)   5(40)   5(45)   1(46)   X(46)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)  10(25)   2(27)   X(27)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAN BLAS       34  X  18(18)  20(38)   5(43)   4(47)   2(49)   X(49)
SAN BLAS       50  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

P VALLARTA     34  3  46(49)   8(57)   1(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)
P VALLARTA     50  X  11(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
P VALLARTA     64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34 22   4(26)   1(27)   1(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



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