Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 211405
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
905 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...VALID 15Z SUN DEC 21 2014 - 12Z MON DEC 22 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E MFR 20 E RBG 30 SE EUG 25 ESE SLE TTD 35 NNW CZK 45 N CZK
40 NNE CZK 15 NNW DLS 25 SSW DLS 25 NW RDM 25 SSW RDM 60 SSW RDM
60 N LMT 20 NW LMT 30 WNW LMT 15 E MFR.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW TDO 15 SW KLS HIO 15 WNW SLE 10 SW EUG 25 NW SXT
45 ESE CEC 30 WNW O54 10 SSE ACV 30 NNW CEC 30 SSW OTH
30 SSW ONP 15 S AST 15 SSE HQM 30 N HQM 20 E UIL 10 SW CLM
30 SSE CLM 10 S SHN 15 WNW TDO.



...WA TO NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGES AND THE OR/SOUTHERN WA
CASCADES...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREA ACRS THIS REGION AS THE
SCREAMING E/W PAC UPR JET (175 kTS OR SO) AND STG ONSHORE FLOW
PATRN WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS ACRS
PARTS OF THE PAC COAST REGION. BY LATE IN THE DAY 1 PD..BUILDING
HEIGHTS OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HELP WEAKEN THE INTENSE ONSHORE
FLOW PATRN AND SLOWLY SHIFT WEAKENING E/W FRONTAL BNDRY NWD
THROUGH OREGON.  WHILE BROAD ONSHORE FLOW PATRN IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT MOST OF THE PAC NW REGION...BY FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
EXPECTED ACRS THE CNTL/SRN OREGON COASTAL RANGES INTO THE OREGON
CASCADES WHERE MAIN AXIS OF GREATER THAN 1.25 INCH PWS ALONG WITH
40 KT PLUS WLY 85H FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST 12 HRS OF THE DAY 1 PD.  MANUAL QPF CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD
COMBO OF SSEO MEAN AND GENL HI RES GUIDANCE GIVEN BETTER
TOPOGRAPHIC RESOLUTION..WITH MANUAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4+ INCHES
EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES.  THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
LEAD TO SOME LOCAL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 10 INCHES OVER WRN
OREGON...AND LIKELY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

SULLIVAN

$$




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