Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 021428
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1028 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE JUN 02 2015 - 12Z WED JUN 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA...

FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES..WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY.
WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TN VALLEY CLOSED
LOW EXPECTED..A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
IT WILL KEEP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY.
THIS SUPPORTS THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THRU THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEASTERN VA.  THE 850-700
MB WINDS ARE FCST TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 KT SO MOISTURE FLUXES WILL
NOT BE STRONG.  THE LACK OF A STRONG OR PERSISTENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAXIMA LEADS TO A MORE LOCALIZED THREAT.  SLOW MOVING
AND LOCALLY TRAINING CELLS/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE
THE MODE OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS. ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RATES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN WHERE SUSTAINED
HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR.

PETERSEN
$$




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