Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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986
FOUS30 KWBC 240110
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
909 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

...VALID 01Z SUN JUL 24 2016 - 12Z SUN JUL 24 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW EKM GYY 15 WSW SQI 20 ESE IIB 20 SSW CCY 10 W FRM
15 W RWF 10 WSW GHW 15 N SAZ 20 ENE HZX 30 N ASX 40 NE LNL
15 NW MNM 25 SE SUE 25 SE LDM 15 NW GRR 20 NNW EKM.


WELL DEFINED MCV CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE EAST WHILE EXTREME INSTABILITY OF
5000+ J/KG AS OBSERVED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX IS
PRESENT JUST SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS. A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. NOCTURNAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH TRAINING IS POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL-SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO SWRN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME AS HINTED AT BY
RECENT RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND HRRR_PARALLEL. IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF
THIS CLUSTER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND 850 MB
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE. RAINFALL RATES OF
3-4 IN/HR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
ERN IOWA AND SATURDAYS RAINFALL HAS SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...SO
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD POSE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NERN IOWA INTO SRN WISCONSIN/NRN ILLINOIS...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

ELSEWHERE...AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WHILE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW MIXED
SIGNALS WITH THE DEGREE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 12Z AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH MINNESOTA. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL WEST OF MSP...A SLGT RISK REMAINS.

OTTO
$$





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