Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 020737
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

...VALID 12Z THU JUL 02 2015 - 12Z FRI JUL 03 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NE DYR 40 WSW HOP 15 NNE HOP 25 SE OWB 15 W FTK 20 SE SDF
30 NNW JKL 30 NW I16 15 W BKW 20 ENE BLF 10 SSE BLF 10 ENE TRI
40 SW TRI 20 NNW 1A5 20 E DNN 20 NNE 8A0 20 WSW MSL 20 ESE OLV
25 SE SRC 35 ENE RUE 15 SW FLP 25 SSW UNO 30 N ARG 30 NE DYR.


NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD..WITH THE H5 RIDGE REMAINING INTACT FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
DOWNSTREAM H5 TROF PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
 THIS PATTERN PUTS THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MID
MS AND TN VALLEYS IN A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME..WHICH WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY/VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  AT LEAST SEVERAL WELL
DEFINED H5 S/WVS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME..WITH ONE NOW OVER MO..A
2ND MOVING INTO IA AND YET A THIRD ONE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS..WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL..WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS..A FRONTAL
WAVE FURTHER ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM PARTS OF TN
INTO KY AND SOUTHERN WV ON THURSDAY NIGHT..AND OCCASIONAL POOLING
OF PWS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.  GRADUALLY FALLING HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE H5 TROF WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW BUT STEADY SOUTHWARD SHIFT
TO THE CONVECTION OVERALL..AND FOR THAT REASON STUCK CLOSE TO THE
HIGHER RES QPF GUIDANCE OF THE ARW..NMMB..ECMWF AND GEM
REGIONAL..WHICH BEST SHOWED THIS TREND.  EXPECT SOME 1-2 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A GENERAL WEST-EAST BAND FROM
PARTS OF EASTERN OK INTO AR THRU TN/NORTHERN AL..MS AND GA AND
INTO SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN WV..WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
of 3+ INCHES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

TERRY
$$




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