Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 030936
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
534 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 03/1200 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STRETCHED OUT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SPREAD ON THE
FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MITIGATE SOME OF THE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF...AND HIGHER TERRAIN AMOUNTS WERE AUGMENTED BY THE 00Z
WRF ARW.

A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
INCREASES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...REACHING 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN WY INTO EASTERN ID AND WESTERN CO BEFORE 03/21Z.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INTO THESE AREAS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN). SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS SUPPLIED BY A
SHORT WAVE RIDING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER CENTRAL WY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN WY (GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)...PEAKING
AROUND 04/00Z.

MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF AN INCH
OR SO OF BASIN AVERAGED QPF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM) SHOWED
MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS OVER 2.00 INCHES. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WY (MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN)...AND GIVEN HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A SEE TEXT WAS
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WY INTO NORTHERN CO TO ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IF INSTABILITY WERE FORECAST TO BE MORE
ROBUST...A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY HAVE BEEN WARRANTED.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 1...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL INDICATION THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER 04/00Z. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN HERE...SO THE QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF.

AN EARLY MORNING COMPLEX OVER NORTH TX SHOULD FADE AS THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED. AN MCV FROM
THE COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
TX/SOUTHWEST OK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AFTER 03/12Z.

THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REPEAT ITSELF TONIGHT...AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
INFLOW OVER NORTH TX/WESTERN OK/WESTERN KS TRANSPORTS MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO NORTH TX. THE 00Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TX/WESTERNMOST OK BETWEEN
04/00Z AND 04/06Z...WHICH TURNS SOUTHEAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE BEST
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
FORMS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR MCS FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN
OK/SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT RECENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NM TRACKED ACROSS NORTH TX...THE WPC QPF
WAS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CLOSER TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM PLACEMENT.

DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TX AND WESTERNMOST OK THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PLACES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE MCS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB AND 00Z REGIONAL GEM). CONSIDERING
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0O
INCHES...THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/AND WESTERN OK FOR THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/FL...

THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT CROSSES
NORTHERN FL AND MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC FEEDS CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM NORTH FL THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THERE WAS
SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT
OF NORTHERN FL AND TO THE SC COAST...WITH THE 00Z GFS HAVING THE
SUPPORT OF THE 12Z/18Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS.

THE NEXT SURGE OF CONVECTION TIED TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.50 INCHES) IS
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WEST OF FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST THRUST OF MOISTURE OCCURS IN THE 03/12Z TO 03/18Z TIME
FRAME...DURING WHICH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL NEED TO BE
RETAINED UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SCOURED BY A DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE OFF THE SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE
SURFACE WAVE EVOLVES...AND HOW THE DEEP MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
FOLLOWING THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE 00Z GFS (WHICH APPEARED
TO HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS)...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...STRETCHING OVER COASTAL SC/NC.
IT IS UNCLEAR...BASED ON THE 00Z GFS (AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF
OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS)...WHETHER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD GET ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 1.50 TO 2.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE HIGH
(GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00 INCHES)...SO AT FIRST LOOK IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (FROM THE 00Z WRF ARW/NMMB TO THE 00Z
REGIONAL GEM) SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
QPF...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMS IN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY INFLOW NEAR THE NC COAST. THE AIRMASS PRODUCED LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION...A SEE TEXT WAS PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC
COASTS.


...NORTHEAST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FEEDS DEVELOPING LINES OF CONVECTION FROM
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM UPSTATE
NY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE A
BIT SLOW WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE...THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
INTO IA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES REINVIGORATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM WESTERN PA/WV INTO UPSTATE NY STATE AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A 20 TO 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED GOOD INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION TAKES ON AN OUTFLOW DOMINATED MODE THROUGH AT LEAST
04/00Z.  A LARGE AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN
VT/NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
COAST.

SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NORTHERN NH SUGGEST THAT THE
COLUMN MOISTENS WITH TIME...AND ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES AS
MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 2.50 INCHES (EXCEPT ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF
ME...WHERE THEY LOWER TO 1.50 INCHES)...SO WHILE LOCAL ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING EARLY TUESDAY WILL EJECT WHILE
WEAKENING OVER THE PLAINS AS THE SPLIT LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST MOVES ASHORE.  MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY EVIDENT
BELOW GRID-SCALE WITH OTHERWISE RESPECTABLE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT.
 GIVEN MODESTLY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 DEGREES
C/KM ALONG WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE AND FORCING...SMALL
SCALE QPF DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT.  TO HELP RESOLVE THESE
DIFFERENCES...CREATED THE FINAL QPF WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION
INVOLVING THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE
ENSEMBLES MEANS.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST/MS VALLEY/OH-TN VALLEY

MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A BROAD ZONE
EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KANSAS ON DAY 2...THEN EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE OH-TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3...WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXITING THE ROCKIES OUT OF PHASE BUT THEN POSSIBLY INTERACTING
WITH EACH OR EVEN PHASING IF ONE BELIEVES SOME OF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS.  REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL OR MODELS PROVE
CLOSEST...PROGRESSION OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP OR
REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE MID LEVEL
PORTIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LYING NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUS
CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BUT POSSIBLE DEEP PATTERN OF ASCENT.  AT
LEAST FOR DAY 2...MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE ABOUT AVERAGE...WITH THE
FINAL SOLUTION SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR PROPAGATION...WHICH IS ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/12-00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM CONUS NEST.  FOR DAY
3...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH.  THUS...THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CONSERVATIVE AND USES MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...BUT STILL
RESEMBLES SOMETHING BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
00Z GFS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD 12-00Z
ECMWF...WHILE EXCLUDING SOME QUESTIONABLY SMALL BUT HIGH QPF
MAXIMA NEAR THE MID LEVELS CENTERS IN THE SOLUTIONS.  ALTHOUGH THE
NAM SHOWS GOOD PHASE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREFERRED PATTERN...ITS
FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS NEAR NORTHERN
EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN MODEL BIASES TO UNDER ESTIMATE
PROPAGATION...EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIE
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE NAM.  THUS...ITS SOLUTION RECEIVED VERY
LITTLE WEIGHTING BY DAY 3.

...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/EASTERN CAROLINAS

PREFERRED A SOLUTION GENERALLY BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM/12-00Z ECMWF TO
DERIVE THE QPF COMPARED TO 00Z GFS WHICH DEPICTED VARIOUS QPF
MAXIMA RESULTING FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ALONG OR OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS PARTICULARLY ON DAY 2.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER
QUEBEC ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH INLAND FROM THE EAST
COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON DAY 3.

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA

OTHER THAN PERIODIC CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZES AND OTHER
STRONGLY ORGANIZED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3 AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/JAMES

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 530243 530240 532235 530227 526222 519205 511194
      509191 507192 502193 496195 493187 478182 476180 472178
      465176 462193 458200 456202 456206 462210 467211 470210
      477211 482211 475216 463224 458227 450228 425232 413231
      409223 404217 396207 389199 388180 388174 388170 388164
      389159 396144 394140 390140 385140 384143 372136 371133
      370128 370125 372121 374115 378112 389108 391103 391098
      384097 379102 376103 373101 373089 371083 366069 364062
      357060 355056 357053 361052 363048 361042 356039 349040
      348043 349046 350055 351060 350063 344068 344074 347084
      348093 346102 345106 342107 337105 332104 328105 326106
      324109 322115 320117 312116 307113 304108 306104 313094
      315089 314084 317080 316076 314066 313063 313057 314048
      313039 313030 314022 327013 328995 330982 341973 347968
      354964 369961 376959 382956 385940 385934 387931 387925
      385921 381908 378903 376894 371878 372861 372855 368847
      368843 369839 372833 371831 370826 371817 375800 384777
      389771 392764 395759 396754 397747 408726 415715 421709
      427704 431699 434693 437689 440684 445678 451672 461663
      467658 472652 482641 489631 494626 502622 519668 519684
      514689 516698 516703 515707 514715 511721 507727 503727
      497728 492732 488737 479747 471756 455776 448786 445791
      442798 439804 436805 435807 431813 433816 437813 438811
      441813 445814 449820 455825 459829 461834 465839 470846
      474858 475868 473875 471883 474885 471890
 0.01 471890 470895 468898 466897 461899 458898 454891 453889
      452884 451865 448860 446855 446850 440843 433833 430826
      430821 431819 430815 428817 424822 419830 411840 402848
      395859 393863 392870 391876 393881 402891 415908 421919
      424926 426933 435957 439971 441979 443985 447001 448015
      453047 454056 456062 457069 460074 466104 468110 472116
      475120 480122 485124 488126 490124 502121 508122 512121
      520117 524113 528113 543116 544119 546120 548126 555135
 0.01 534840 530833 523828 520826 517822 511817 509815 506815
      503821 504828 506834 509843 515851 518853 520853 523855
      531854 534851 534843 534840
 0.01 411699 406671 400671 396673 392675 389677 386680 380688
      376697 369705 354717 349721 342725 327735 323738 321742
      315751 303765 291772 287772 282774 273774 267775 263777
      257779 253781 239787 227795 225800 228803 232804 234809
      239819 243825 246819 249817 251819 253823 259838 261842
      262849 264854 266859 268864 269870 270882 271907 273915
      272927 271939 270941 269948 268954 268960 272968 279965
      285958 287954 289951 294946 301940 303937 304929 303916
      301905 300900 300893 303881 307873 308865 311870 313870
      315866 317860 315834 316829 318825 329822 336818 341813
      346805 350795 357777 365760 368754 374749 381741 387735
      399719 405710 409704 411699
 0.01 308091 309085 308081 308068 303063 292061 283059 272058
      263055 252053 244051 232050 228051 229054 234061 245073
      250079 257084 272093 280096 289096 299098 303096 306093
      308091
 0.01 308041 308040 306038 304038 302038 302040 304042 306043
      306042 308041 308041
 0.25 550165 548166 547166 546166 545168 544169 543171 542173
      541176 541178 541181 542182 543184 544185 545186
 0.25 505670 504661 501656 497652 493654 487657 482661 475670
      469673 466677 459685 445703 436712 431719 425729 423735
      419741 412751 410753 408759 407766 410771 415783 406785
      400792 398790 394790 391794 385804 382810 380816 381821
      383825 385827 388828 393824 401816 405812 410809 410813
      411818 415819 418814 422799 431793 436786 448765 452765
      456761 461753 467743 470737 472729 477719 482716 486718
      502700 504693 506686 505670
 0.25 457150 457134 457126 456115 456106 455098 450092 444087
      437084 432080 427077 422072 414060 405049 399044 393045
      392047 388046 386049 385067 385074 390079 398108 406119
      409115 412114 415116 422120 427124 433121 440120 443120
      445123 443130 440138 441143 443147 446150 450152 455152
      457150
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448073 447073 446072 445071 443070
      443069 441069 440072 441073 442074 443076 444077 446079
      447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.25 432215 432212 431212 430214 432215 432215
 0.25 433999 433987 431978 427970 423961 415947 412939 410935
      407932 404935 403939 403952 402964 402970 403977 405985
      408993 416010 418018 420029 421034 423037 425034 425027
      426015 427003 433999
 0.25 422100 422099 420099 419100 418100 417098 415098 414099
      415100 416101 417102 418102 420102 422100 422100
 0.25 409089 409088 407086 405086 404086 402085 400085 400086
      398087 400088 401089 403090 403091 405092 407093 408091
      408090 409089
 0.25 379716 378714 376715 368716 361719 357722 334738 331742
      326747 320756 305778 302783 298788 294792 292797 293802
      293806 288806 282804 277801 262799 256801 252804 252807
      253810 255812 258813 271815 270821 269829 268837 268842
      269848 271856 275863 281867 282897 282905 282914 284922
      286925 290926 292925 293920 294912 293896 292878 289862
      290855 292849 296837 300825 302823 306821 314818 320816
      328814 333811 336807 342796 346790 349785 351777 354770
      359761 365750 369743 372736 379716
 0.25 390897 390895 390892 390890 389888 388886 386884 385884
      384883 383884 381886 381887 381888 381891 382893 382895
      383897 385899 387899 389898 390897
 0.25 386027 387013 385999 382991 379987 375983 367980 362980
      357982 351987 348992 347998 345009 343013 338015 334019
      334023 340023 345025 352030 360034 365037 367041 372049
      379055 383056 384054 385049 383044 380040 376037 378034
      384031 386027
 0.25 380078 379076 379074 378071 377069 376067 375065 373064
      371065 370066 370068 371069 371070 372073 373073 373075
      373077 374079 374080 375082 377082 379080 380078
 0.25 335058 334056 332055 330054 329054 327055 326057 327057
      328058 330059 332059 334058 335058
 0.25 298084 299079 297075 295073 291072 282071 274071 267070
      263069 261069 260072 265076 270083 275086 282089 286090
      291090 297086 298084
 0.50 498683 497665 496662 491662 485668 465688 457700 447711
      443715 440722 436728 434731 433737 433740 430744 426748
      416757 416763 418765 425765 430769 432768 434765 442754
      445747 449741 453738 456740 461737 464730 458726 467716
      476703 480697 483691 485699 492696 496690 498683
 0.50 448109 447102 447098 443096 440096 434093 430090 428088
      425089 426096 430101 431104 429105 422105 419106 416106
      413106 411103 408100 404107 404112 406113 410109 414109
      419113 423117 429118 434118 438114 448109
 0.50 414975 414970 414967 412965 409966 407967 405970 406975
      407977 408982 410984 411987 413987 413982 414977 414975
 0.50 401072 402069 401068 400069 399070 399071 399073 401072
      401072
 0.50 394073 394071 394070 392070 392071 391073 391075 392077
      393075 394073 394073
 0.50 377078 377076 376074 374075 375078 376079 377078
 0.50 366737 365729 362726 356727 352729 337743 331750 325760
      313776 308783 305787 303793 301797 301803 309809 313812
      318812 324810 327807 335800 341792 345783 350773 359754
      363746 366737
 0.50 374017 372008 374005 376999 375993 373990 369987 364985
      359987 357990 355994 354000 351011 352022 354027 359029
      368031 372023 374017
 0.50 296817 295814 291814 286817 279821 276826 273834 273843
      276849 279851 283850 287845 292840 294832 295824 296817
 0.50 292079 290078 289076 285076 281076 280076 276077 274078
      273081 275083 277084 281085 284085 286084 288083 292081
      292079
 0.50 288900 288897 288895 288893 287892 287893 286895 287898
      287900 288900 288900
 0.50 275807 274804 272803 270801 266801 263801 259802 256803
      254805 254808 256809 258809 262810 265809 269809 273808
      275807
 1.00 437112 436112 435111 435112 436112 437112
 1.00 431097 431096 429094 431097 431097
 1.00 426113 426110 424110 424112 426113 426113
 1.00 357741 355737 353737 345743 340750 335758 328772 322779
      315785 309790 306793 307797 310799 315799 320799 318802
      318804 321805 325803 329800 334794 340786 348771 350762
      355754 357741
 1.00 365021 365018 365016 365014 364012 363010 362010 360010
      358011 356013 356014 355016 356018 356020 357022 357023
      359024 361023 362023 363023 365022 365021
 1.00 291830 291826 292822 290819 288820 285822 283824 282826
      280828 279832 279836 280840 283841 286840 288838 290836
      291833 291830
 1.50 362018 361016 360015 358015 357016 358017 358018 359020
      361019 362018
 1.50 348754 348751 346752 344755 339762 336771 334780 328788
      325797 325800 328798 334791 338782 342775 344770 344765
      345761 347756 348754
 1.50 290831 290826 290822 287822 285824 283827 282829 280832
      280834 281837 283839 285837 288835 289833 290831
 2.00 288831 288829 288827 287825 285826 285827 284828 283829
      282831 282833 282836 284835 286835 287833 288833 288831

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 510297 507293 505285 504281 505275 505264 506258 508253
      511247 515243 516238 520229 519225 517225 514225 511227
      510233 508231 510226 513223 517225 520228 524221 526216
      529215 532215 534211 537207 539205 537203 533202 526199
      520199 513198 508198 500197 490194 484188 482188 483181
      483176 482171 476166 469163 467162 466164 462171 455185
      451190 447191 444193 438207 437211 439214 436218 414238
      410234 408232 409226 413219 417214 420207 418199 417196
      415193 413193 410190 410186 410167 410159 407152 409143
      413135 417130 421123 422119 425116 432111 429102 427094
      425081 423077 419077 415076 411077 408077 404079 397078
      394076 391075 384074 380074 375071 371068 370065 368057
      367048 369045 372044 374042 379042 382040 385040 389037
      389034 390031 389029 388027 384022 376009 373001 369997
      365993 357992 353992 351989 346986 335985 333982 332977
      332975 335971 339966 344960 350955 363930 365924 367916
      366894 362848 360838 360833 358830 357819 359812 362797
      362791 365791 373790 378794 383798 384802 386804 389804
      389810 390816 392819 392829 397847 399856 403866 407877
      411884 417896 420903 423911 429923 433930 435937 442952
      446962 451971 460981 464986 469991 486013 491017 494018
      496020 509025 517028 521030 525031 530035 534040 538047
      543053 552066 555075 556082 560101
 0.01 539208 539210 537213 535215 535217 536220
 0.01 501621 500623 497623 491618 484620 481623 477625 447630
      440636 433642 428648 424650 419653 410654 400656 397656
      394658 387663 377672 366684 354694 343702 322730 318737
      314744 306758 302763 297768 285779 276786 269791 266793
      262794 254799 251800 248804 244811 242815 240817 239815
      235808 231798 227793 223793 222797 223804 223814 224823
      226825 227828 225833 226836 224839 225842 227843 230842
      232838 235831 242827 245824 248825 258834 268839 276842
      283845 285848 287854 280867 279875 279880 278885 277895
      276903 276913 277923 281930 283934 285939 289948 290952
      293954 301952 305951 309949 314943 315932 314923 314912
      313909 315905 318898 315881 312864 312857 310853 309841
      308828 310819 314810 318804 332795 338791 343787 349782
      352780 356779 358781 362780 366778 370779 376780 383782
      388775 392767 401752 403748 408748 412749 415753 417757
      418763 417773 418784 419790 420793 427811 432830 435840
      437845 441858 445866 448874 449877 451877 455875 457874
      459876 464882 465884 468883 468878 466868 460854 460849
      458845 455836 449820 447815 447810 446799 446786 446780
      451778 454777 456779 458784 459797 461809 464818 466824
      467829 469833 472835 484839 489834 494828 499822 503816
      509801 511796 513791 515780 518771 521755 525736 522710
      520689 519678 521670
 0.01 533867 533859 531854 533853 532848 532843 530841 527844
      524844 523850 523857 525863 527868 529870 531870 533867
 0.01 489320 488317 487314 485313 484312 482311 481311 480313
      480316 479318 481319 482320 484320 486321 487322 489320
      489320
 0.01 448167 449160 448154 445152 443157 442164 441171 439175
      437179 436183 437187 440188 442183 443179 445176 446172
      448167
 0.01 436129 437126 437124 436122 435121 434119 432120 432121
      433123 433126 434126 434128 435130 436129
 0.01 416213 415210 415208 415205 414205 412204 410206 409209
      411211 411212 412212 414212 416213
 0.01 316050 317046 315045 311044 310041 308034 306030 303030
      301031 299036 298044 296046 296050 296052 300053 305051
      307053 310053 315052 316050
 0.01 308091 307081 304070 299065 293063 286063 275062 269061
      264059 256055 247052 237051 233054 231059 231063 234067
      240074 253086 267098 273103 282108 291111 295110 300108
      305100 308091
 0.01 261780 260776 256774 251774 247776 246779 244781 243785
      245787 247790 251790 254787 258787 260782 261780
 0.01 258010 258006 257004 256002 255000 251000 249000 247002
      247006 247010 247012 249016 250016 252018 254017 256016
      257012 258010
 0.01 240779 240777 238775 236775 234775 232776 231778 232780
      233782 235783 237782 239781 240779 240779
 0.25 556125 555117 554113 551107 547103 545101 542101 537105
      531108 519107 517109 514110 509116 505122 504127 503134
      503140 501144 500150 500157 502159 505158 512157 526161
      531162 537167 541173 544177 547178
 0.25 521268 520267 518267 517267 516267 515268 514269 514271
      513274 513277 514280 515281 516283
 0.25 527087 520075 513072 512067 510064 503059 501057 499059
      496060 493058 491053 487046 482041 478034 470023 461008
      451995 442983 433973 428966 425959 421949 417940 414934
      410929 405923 403916 399906 396896 392889 388881 379848
      376848 375851 374862 377873 379884 379894 379906 375922
      368937 364946 360954 356959 352967 352974 357978 373985
      379988 385988 387987 394986 399991 406003 410010 415017
      425030 428036 431044 436060 440067 445073 450075 453076
      461082 468083 475083 489083 497084 502085 505087 510095
      515101 519101 523097 526092 527087
 0.25 488660 482647 480644 478645 476652 472654 468654 463650
      458647 452645 440651 429658 401671 390679 381688 376692
      371697 363708 355718 346727 330750 325760 321773 318787
      318791 321791 327786 335778 343770 355761 360758 365755
      368757 373760 378759 382754 384748 390733 393727 396721
      401718 406719 412722 418719 423714 427707 430701 428696
      422695 421692 422688 425683 432681 443688 446702 448707
      451708 455706 459702 462696 467690 472686 484679 486674
      486668 488660
 0.25 479739 479737 478734 477734 477737 477740 478741 479739
 0.25 445749 444744 442743 439744 437748 435753 433756 431761
      431767 431771 435770 438767 441762 442759 444754 445749
 0.25 299093 299086 298080 294075 288072 275069 264066 260065
      257065 253069 249073 252077 257081 266088 275094 279097
      287098 294099 298095 299093
 0.25 305924 305918 305911 304907 300904 297901 293900 294903
      294910 294916 294922 295929 298931 302933 304931 305925
      305924
 0.25 297815 296813 291813 286818 285820 284825 286827 289826
      292826 289831 288833 287837 290839 294840 296841 297838
      296830 295825 292824 296819 297815
 0.25 291895 292893 291891 290893 290895 291896 291895
 0.25 276813 275809 273807 271806 269805 265805 261805 258806
      256808 256811 257813 259815 261817 264819 266819 270818
      272817 274816 276813
 0.50 555135 553127 550118 548115 546114 541119 536125 531128
      528130 525134 527140 531147 535153 539159 544166 548171
 0.50 481060 481053 478049 470041 465034 463028 461023 456013
      452010 450008 446008 444007 444004 442999 436988 430982
      426979 421975 419973 417976 416985 416994 419005 424015
      430023 435033 446052 462065 466067 471067 476066 480062
      481060
 0.50 456660 455655 454653 451652 448655 447656 443659 442661
      442664 444665 447665 448668 452668 454666 456663 456660
 0.50 419678 415676 408677 401680 396684 387690 382693 376698
      369705 361715 349735 344744 340749 337755 335760 334764
      338764 345760 352753 361743 366734 372731 377727 394710
      401702 409693 414686 419678
 0.50 404947 400940 397931 394911 390902 387901 385906 383913
      379922 371937 364952 361961 357967 357971 360974 368977
      375979 380979 384977 387970 391962 395954 397952 401949
      404947
 0.50 294092 293085 289081 285078 280075 274073 267071 264071
      263074 266078 268083 273087 278089 284091 291093 294092
 1.00 550148 551146 551143 551140 551137 549134 548133 546133
      544134 544136 543137 542138 542141 542142 543144 544145
      544147 545148 546149 548150 550150 550148
 1.00 388945 388939 387934 386929 382929 377936 372945 369954
      366963 364967 366970 370972 373972 381968 384964 385959
      387947 388945
 1.50 382949 383945 382942 379943 377944 375947 375949 375954
      373958 372961 371963 371966 374965 377963 379961 380958
      380954 381952 382949

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 557092 558075 558068 557064 554053 551042 544024 534011
      527004 521996 515991 510990 508988 500985 496982 494976
      489964 482969 479974 475971 470965 468960 469954 467952
      463951 454947 449940 440930 433923 426914 415900 413897
      410891 407880 403868 401855 399843 398839 397833 392811
      390806 389800 387790 385784 385778 383766 377740 373740
      368739 365740 366743 365746 365752 360756 353760 349764
      343766 341770 340775 340786 339792 336795 323805 320808
      317808 312803 306798 300794 293788 289785 285783 281780
      278780 273778 268779 258777 254778 253782 250793 247802
      245809 251814 265823 277831 278836 279842 279854 280869
      281883 281907 282915 283920 286931 287943 299944 303942
      305939 310931 314925 319922 324923 331925 333928 334934
      334948 334954 335956 338957 339960 341964 344971 349982
      353983 358983 365983 367985 368988 373999 379008 383006
      384999 380990 378986 381984 383984 387986 393987 398993
      409006 415010 421013 431018 431026 429030 428030 419033
      414032 410031 401031 394026 389025 387026 384026 379028
      377028 376030 373039 371045 372047 389052 398056 402057
      404059 405065 408068 413073 419083 420088 420097 419104
      416108 413110 414116 414122 415128 413139 414141 413146
      415152 417165 419175 422178 425180 427190 430192 434192
      439188 444183 456170 462162 465157 466149 468136 472125
      476114 477107 477101 473091 471085 469082 470078 477060
      484055 491061 496066 502072 514084 523102 528114 531119
      534123 536128 540132 541135 546136 549135 551131 552122
      554116 555102 556094 557092
 0.01 528727 527711 524701 522695 520691 517687 512683 506679
      501674 495666 492662 490657 485645 481639 474633 470630
      467629 462630 459633 453640 449650 445660 442680 441692
      441700 441706 437714 432721 429725 428730 430738 432744
      436753 438757 439762 444774 448783 450787 454791 459795
      478797 482799 487798 491797 494795 501790 509781 511773
      514762 514755 516751 519746 522744 523742 526735 528727
 0.01 309096 308084 302072 297063 290053 284045 275038 270035
      263035 251038 242042 232047 228051 227057 229063 234067
      241074 244079 248085 261102 267109 272114 278115 285116
      289115 299109 305104 309096
 0.25 522041 523034 522029 519025 516024 508022 506020 504016
      494002 488995 484994 480995 477997 473997 465995 461990
      456984 454978 454970 450960 446952 441947 435942 428940
      420938 413936 408930 405922 403916 402909 400896 398874
      395854 391831 388818 385809 381799 377792 373786 370785
      367786 362807 359816 359821 363823 363830 363842 363862
      363869 361874 358883 349899 347907 345916 346921 349923
      355927 362933 365935 368940 371943 375944 382942 390940
      394938 397936 398933 400933 404933 407935 411943 412947
      411950 412958 413963 417971 426986 429992 434999 440004
      447010 455015 461018 474029 476030 478034 484034 491031
      496032 501032 504029 506027 508028 514037 518043 520044
      522041
 0.25 478679 478678 476678 475680 476681 478680 478679
 0.25 455670 454670 452671 453673 454672 455670
 0.25 463119 462114 464104 463101 460099 455096 448094 441095
      437098 434107 436114 439122 441128 441135 437141 436144
      436150 439155 444156 447155 450151 454142 457137 455135
      454133 455130 458124 463119 463119
 0.25 311879 311877 311875 310874 308875 307878 307880 308882
      308884 309885 309884 310882 310880 311879
 0.25 302823 301821 299818 297815 295814 293813 290813 287814
      285817 284819 285821 287823 291824 293824 296825 300825
      302823
 0.25 301918 301916 301914 301912 301910 300910 299907 297905
      295906 294908 294910 294912 295914 295916 296918 297920
      298920 299920 301918 301918
 0.25 271806 270804 268802 265801 261801 257803 256805 255808
      256810 258813 260814 264814 266812 268810 270808 271806
 0.50 490020 491018 490015 488013 486013 485014 484015 483017
      482019 483022 484023 486023 488023 488022 489021 490020
 0.50 449988 448978 448973 447967 446961 442956 435952 430954
      429957 429964 431971 436978 440985 445989 448989 449988
 0.50 394899 395891 395884 394867 392854 389840 386828 382816
      379811 375808 373809 371813 370817 369830 368844 366871
      360896 357906 357912 359916 366922 372932 376934 380934
      384931 387926 391915 394901 394899
 1.00 390888 390878 390867 387849 384843 381836 380834 377835
      375842 373849 373857 370876 368891 368901 371909 373915
      377920 379923 381922 384914 386908 388899 390888
 1.50 386888 387877 386865 384857 380855 376862 375871 373880
      372889 373898 374903 376907 380904 384897 386889 386888
 2.00 383886 383882 383879 381875 381870 380870 378873 377877
      376880 376883 376886 376889 377893 379893 381891 382888
      383886

$$




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