Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 291005
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
504 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 29/1200 UTC THRU JAN 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


1000 UTC UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC---COASTAL SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE PUSHING ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC--COASTAL
SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT---1 TO 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.
WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT---THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HEAVIER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE---ECMWF AND THE HI RES RUNS--WITH AREAL AVERAGE .25-.50"+
AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

UPPER GREAT LAKES

COLD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST DAY 1 OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE L.P.---WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN

HEIGHT FALLS DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN DAY
1---FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW DURING THE DAY 2 TIME PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.  THERE ARE A LOT OF QPF DETAILS
DIFFERENCES---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THESE DETAILS.  THE
NAM AND SREF MEAN WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR THE DAY 1 QPF ACROSS
THESE REGIONS.

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

A LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING OUT OF THE DEVELOPING WESTERN
TROF WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ACCENTUATING UVVS OVER
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL LIFT EXPECTED FROM POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS---WITH HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS LIKELY
IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER
WEATHER DETAILS.


DAYS 2/3...

...WEST...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING
OF THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF CA/NV DURING DAY 2 AND
SETTLING INTO
AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE 00Z UKMET LIKELY BEING A
SLIGHTLY SLOW OUTLIER.  THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE TAPPING INTO ANY
DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE UNTIL DAY 3..WHEN SOME BACKING OF THE FLOW
BRINGS MARGINALLY HIGHER PWS OUT OF THE PACIFIC INTO MAINLY AZ.
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL FORCING WILL HOWEVER MAKE THE
MOST OF WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ON DAY 2 TO PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SIERRA..THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHERN CA AND OVER INTO NORTHERN AZ/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UT..WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON DAY 3 INCREASING THRUOUT THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ESPECIALLY IN AZ..IN A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
MOISTURE REGIME.  STUCK REAL CLOSE TO ECMWF HIRES AND GFS
QPFS..WHICH WERE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.  PLEASE SEE THE
QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE INCREASING SNOWFALL THREAT ESPECIALLY
FROM AZ INTO SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHERN UT ON DAY 3.


...TX...

A WEAK TO MODERATE..BUT PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW OF HIGHER/DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAINS
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN TX UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS PERIOD.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE RAINFALL TOTALS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE..AS PER PRETTY AGREEABLE MODEL QPFS.


...GREAT LAKES...

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES..AND ESPECIALLY
SO ON DAY 3 AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COUPLE OF H5
S/WVS..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR..MI AND ONTARIO.  STUCK A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 QPF FOR DETAILS..WITH THE MORE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY OVER THE U.P OF MI AND JUST DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARION IN WESTERN NY STATE.  AGAIN..PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD
FOR SNOWFALL DETAILS.

ORAVEC/TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 520149 518142 516135 513131 510125 504122 501121 498118
      494115 493107 489091 475089 470084 468078 464065 461050
      459037 457030 454022 449010 446002 445999 445993 442976
      438961 438954 435949 430938 426938 422942 418944 412941
      400945 394944 389942 381943 377945 373952 371958 371963
      370965 369974 366980 362985 358994 354009 354014 352018
      352026 351034 349040 349048 352053 354055 357056 361057
      363060 365066 369071 370077 373084 374091 376096 384098
      386100 388104 388110 383113 381116 379117 377120 377125
      377128 378130 382131 385130 387143 389149 392154 395159
      397166 403174 405179 408186 407190 404192 402195 397194
      392190 386189 382186 380187 379190 385200 389204 392205
      400215 410219 411221 414222 410228 402236 400243 402247
      405250 407251 415253 429257 438252 443250 447251 449250
      453250 457244 458237 456229 455226 457222 461218 472213
      481209 487207 493207 496202 498198 496194 494194 489197
      480200 469205 464208 460202 463176 460168 458163 452151
      446140 446137 449136 454135 458136 461138 466144 469147
      470143 469139 469137 471135 473132 476134 487141 494148
      507151 512152 515152 520149
 0.01 483872 482866 481863 479858 478852 475849 471840 467833
      465831 462834 460835 457832 455828 455823 453814 451801
      448797 444795 441796 437801 431807 430811 437814 439818
      441819 446826 450833 452836 452843 442853 437859 434861
      429862 422862 416867 414869 414873 416875 419872 435868
      448862 451860 454860 459860 460866 462870 462875 462888
      463899 465903 468903 475888 478885 480881 483872
 0.01 434773 434771 433768 433766 433764 432763 431764 429766
      429767 429769 429771 429774 428776 430778 430781 431781
      432778 432776 433773 434773
 0.01 425101 427097 426094 422092 419090 416085 414083 413079
      411080 411083 412087 412092 414097 417099 420102 422104
      423102 425101
 0.01 415132 416127 412125 409126 409129 406133 405130 402125
      397121 392123 390125 391129 394128 399133 404137 408137
      410136 415132
 0.01 403682 402678 401675 397671 391668 385673 381680 377686
      371697 368702 363706 357711 352716 336737 321759 314771
      309783 306789 303794 297808 295813 290820 285831 287838
      285844 282851 280857 280863 279867 277871 274877 274880
      277883 281888 285885 296877 306868 315859 324851 333841
      342832 344830 345828 347829 349837 353843 357846 363850
      365849 367846 370837 369833 371829 377819 384807 386799
      387795 385791 384788 380789 378785 379782 383765 393737
      395729 397721 399707 403682
 0.01 404098 405095 406093 405091 403093 401095 400097 400099
      400102 402100 404098 404098
 0.01 273805 273803 272803 270803 269802 268802 267803 266804
      265805 263805 261806 261807 261809 262810 264810 265810
      266811 266810 267810 269810 271809 272808 273807 273805
 0.25 445216 444213 444212 443210 441211 440212 441213 441215
      441217 442217 443218 444217 445216
 0.25 433176 433174 434172 434169 434167 433164 431163 430164
      429164 428165 427166 427168 427170 427172 428175 430177
      431178 433177 433176
 0.25 424191 424188 423187 421186 420187 420190 421191 422192
      424191
 0.25 401074 401072 401071 399070 398071 396071 397072 398074
      399075 401074 401074
 0.25 399058 399051 398046 396041 392040 385042 381045 379044
      378051 380056 381060 384065 386068 387074 387081 389084
      392082 396073 395069 397064 396061 399058
 0.25 382715 381711 377710 372709 369712 358725 346739 338743
      332749 328755 323764 321772 322780 324784 323794 320804
      309816 305822 300830 296837 294849 292857 291861 293866
      297867 302865 308859 318847 324839 328832 342799 344795
      349795 354797 359795 364789 367779 373761 377742 381728
      382720 382715
 0.50 372731 373729 373727 371725 369726 368727 367728 366729
      365730 365732 364733 363735 362738 363740 364740 366740
      367740 369739 371736 371734 372732 372731
 0.50 355755 353755 350759 347763 345767 343770 341775 341778
      344775 347772 349768 351764 353760 355756 355755
 0.50 327820 327817 325817 321819 312822 307825 307827 304831
      302834 300838 300844 298849 298852 304852 308850 311847
      316840 320832 325825 327820

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 485879 485870 484862 481853 474835 465818 462810 459800
      451778 446758 443747 440737 438733 435731 432733 430737
      429748 430753 431760 428768 428772 430776 431783 435784
      437795 438800 437805 436816 441826 444835 445841 444847
      443851 439853 429856 423861 422862 425865 433866 445865
      454866 460869 462872 464878 465887 465892 466906 468909
      472908 477901 482889 485879
 0.01 435162 436160 436158 436155 437153 436150 434152 432154
      432157 431159 431161 431164 433165 433164 435162 435162
 0.01 423188 424186 424184 424183 422183 421183 421185 419187
      419188 420190 421191 421190 423189 423188
 0.01 423798 423796 423794 421792 421794 421796 420799 420801
      420804 420806 421808 422806 422803 422801 423799 423798
 0.01 416066 416059 415054 413049 408044 397027 390022 386020
      381019 378017 374018 369019 367020 363020 359022 354028
      351029 348028 343021 338014 335011 332009 324006 317005
      307005 296001 293998 290995 286991 284986 269954 265938
      265915 264905 263894 267876 269864 270859 273853 276844
      280834 285827 290819 295813 300807 310798 316791 318788
      321789 328787 331785 334781 337773 340769 345768 349765
      352764 354766 359769 361777 361780 360785 358790 355799
      353804 352807 350816 349822 351825 351828 353826 356826
      359824 362821 367815 376805 378802 380797 382793 382787
      383782 381778 380773 378769 377754 377748 377739 380728
      382722 381715 378707 372700 368698 366691 363683 356678
      353677 349679 346682 341684 336690 327700 321706 317711
      306729 301737 300739 298739 295733 292731 288733 282739
      278746 275753 273762 271771 268786 269797 269802 267806
      264814 263823 260833 256845 247861 243868 241877 240899
      239910 239916 238920 237930 237936 237942 239951 239961
      242978 244988 249998 254006 261013 268019 274024 281027
      288031 304040 311041 314043 318044 332051 339056 343058
      346059 356059 361062 365066 370074 370079 372083 373092
      374099 373106 372112 370116 368122 365121 361121 359122
      352126 349128 349132 349136 352139 354143 355147 353155
      356158 360157 366157 367153 369149 373151 376152 379154
      378158 380160 384157 388153 390149 396145 395137 392132
      391130 391126 393120 397118 400116 404116 409111 409105
      407102 404102 402106 400108 398107 399103 399097 401093
      410075 413071 416066
 0.01 398206 398200 396196 389190 382184 377178 370172 366171
      364175 367185 369189 372192 379198 385204 389207 393208
      398206
 0.01 346191 345187 346182 345173 343166 340163 336162 327160
      322160 320161 319164 321167 326173 330178 336183 340189
      343191 346191
 0.25 469843 467837 465834 462829 460825 458822 454820 455825
      456830 458835 461838 464841 466844 469843
 0.25 367716 366714 364712 362714 361716 358718 357721 355723
      354726 355728 357728 360726 363724 365721 366719 367716
 0.25 342175 340172 340173 341175 342176 342175
 0.25 333721 331716 328716 323722 320730 316739 313747 312752
      313758 316759 319759 324751 327742 330733 332724 333721
 0.25 312771 311769 311768 309769 307771 306773 305774 304776
      303778 303779 302781 302783 303783 304782 305782 307780
      308778 310776 310775 311773 312771
 0.25 279005 278001 276997 272988 268982 263975 259972 255972
      252974 251978 251984 252988 257995 262001 269006 277007
      279005
 0.25 256875 256868 255862 252863 251867 250871 250877 250883
      249889 251894 253895 254889 254885 255879 256875
 0.25 247950 248945 248941 248937 248933 247929 247925 246923
      246925 245929 244933 244935 244939 245942 245945 246950
      247950


24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 522025 522017 519009 517001 514993 507982 498972 494969
      487966 484966 482969 481972 480977 480985 484995 490005
      498017 506027 511031 513034 517034 521031 522025
 0.01 487866 487853 485844 479835 476822 473813 469804 460785
      456778 454774 453767 451751 450744 449741 447740 439741
      432744 430748 429753 428758 428767 427776 424784 419793
      417804 418814 423808 426804 429801 436806 439818 442827
      447835 449839 447843 444846 439849 434852 432854 431859
      434862 445861 454860 460864 464867 465874 466890 466895
      468899 471902 475902 480896 482895 483892 485885 486874
      487866
 0.01 390121 391115 389111 387107 387101 387095 386089 384083
      382078 379071 376067 373066 368075 365078 363080 359079
      352077 341075 335075 331077 325084 318088 312092 309096
      306100 304104 303112 305115 306119 311127 309132 308139
      307145 309149 314155 317158 317164 319169 323172 332177
      338182 341184 343181 345174 344168 342163 338160 333159
      330157 327154 326149 324145 326140 331138 337138 345141
      349143 351148 353160 357161 362160 368156 374150 379141
      384130 390121
 0.01 352055 352051 351048 344043 324037 312026 311014 309005
      306998 299993 293986 291981 290975 294956 294951 290947
      281945 275945 267943 261941 256941 253942 248945 243949
      239955 237961 237966 238977 240986 244992 255006 260011
      266017 273022 281026 290027 298031 305036 311037 315041
      325051 333056 339057 343059 346059 348057 352055
 0.01 285781 283777 278778 271774 267776 263780 259789 256793
      257799 254810 260815 264814 268810 274802 281795 284792
      284785 285781
 0.25 481877 481864 481857 480849 478841 476837 473833 469826
      466816 463807 460797 456789 450782 448780 446780 445788
      445793 447802 448809 450814 458828 460839 463849 468856
      471865 474873 476878 478880 479879 481877
 0.25 440772 441764 439760 437759 435761 435768 435773 434778
      432783 431788 433791 437793 440789 441784 440777 440772
 0.25 380115 381109 380106 376096 374094 369095 362097 353097
      344093 338091 333092 331094 324098 317103 314109 315114
      319116 325122 327124 331126 345134 358145 361146 364145
      367142 370138 376121 380115
 0.25 273003 274997 273993 269984 268981 264976 261970 255966
      252969 251974 248977 247982 248985 251990 257995 264000
      267002 271003 273003
 0.50 476857 476855 476852 476850 475847 475845 473843 473842
      471843 471845 471848 471850 472851 472853 473855 474857
      474858 475860 476857
 0.50 458815 458813 457810 456808 455806 455805 453804 453803
      453804 453806 453808 454811 455813 456814 457815 458815
      458815
 0.50 364134 365119 364114 359111 355110 350106 343099 340098
      335099 326102 322104 320106 319110 329115 336122 344128
      352134 356136 362136 364134
 1.00 338108 337107 335107 335108 337108 338108

$$





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