Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 201711
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NCZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/20/14 1711Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1700Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...NORTH CAROLINA...
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ATTN WFOS...MHX...ILM...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT S STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRYING HAS
PUSHED S INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.  WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UA ANALYSIS
INDICATE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION.  THIS HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE MID LEVEL
JET STREAK NEAR CREST OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO HAS HELPED TO
DECREASE HALF WAVELENGTH ALLOWING FOR MAXIMIZED DEEP LAYER FORCING OFF
THE NE FL COAST JUST DOWNSTREAM OF INFLECTION POINT.  CURRENT WV IMAGERY
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM IS IN EVOLUTION STAGE BETWEEN BAROCLINIC
LEAF PATTERN TOWARDS COMMA CLOUD PATTERN.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF COLD CONVEYOR BELT STRATIFORM LOW/WARM CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
THE VIC OF NE FL AND THIS IS LIKELY BEGINNINGS OF COMMA CLOUD FORMATION.
THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP W IN
SYSTEM RELATIVE SENSE TOWARDS THE W EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT OFFSHORE
THE NE FL COAST.  LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING DEEP SURGE
OF ANOMALOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO WORKS ITS WAY N OFFSHORE
COASTAL SC WITH A NARROW SECONDARY SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
CCB WORKING INTO COASTAL GA AND NE FL.  EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THAT COASTAL FRONT  EXTENDED FROM
JUST OFFSHORE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC EXTENDING SW TO DEVELOPING LOW ON
VIS IMAGERY ABOUT 130 MILES NE OF DAB.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1700-2300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS TO WORK NE ALONG DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS/OUTER BANKS.  INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE OFF THE SE COAST
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT N WHILE DEVELOPING CCB/SECONDARY WCB SHOULD AID
INCREASING INTEGRATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER COASTAL FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND BEYOND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO THE OUTER BANKS TOWARDS
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.   HEIGHT FALLS NOW AMPLIFYING INTO THE
N PLAINS SHOULD ENSURE THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
LIFTING TO THE NE BUT STILL THOUGH PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT TO THE
OUTER BANKS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE OUTER BANKS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER
MOSTLY THE OUTER BANKS REGION.  THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH WPC AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPFERD.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3650 7421 3501 7454 3389 7569 3358 7794 3508 7728
3616 7555
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