Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 161245
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0545 MST Monday, January 16, 2017

This forecast is for Monday, January 16, 2017:

If the trigger temperature of 45.9 F/7.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 5718 ft MSL (879 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 39.0 F/4.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. None
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 01/17...... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:31:02 / 17:16:11 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 45 min 8 sec (585 min 8 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:24:00 MST... 30.16 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 01/16/2017 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 6285 ft MSL (1446 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21746 ft MSL (16907 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13798 ft MSL (8959 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +16.7
K index......................... -4.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -57.4 -71.3   300   15    8   6.9   3.8  107.0 224.5    58.5      M    M
 45000  -55.6 -68.1   235   30   15   1.6   0.9   85.1 185.2    49.3      M    M
 40000  -54.1 -65.4   245   11    5  -3.0  -1.6   64.3 147.8    39.2      M    M
 38000  -56.1 -69.0   235   12    6   2.7   1.5   52.4 126.4    32.4      M    M
 36000  -57.4 -71.3   185   11    5  -4.8  -2.6   40.8 105.5    25.4      M    M
 34000  -56.2 -69.2   170   17    9  -0.6  -0.3   34.0  93.2    21.3      M    M
 32000  -52.0 -61.6   155   25   13   8.0   4.4   31.8  89.2    20.2      M    M
 30000  -47.1 -52.8   155   19   10   9.3   5.1   30.4  86.7    19.7      M    M
 29000  -44.5 -48.1   160   16    8   8.5   4.7   30.1  86.1    19.7      M    M
 28000  -41.9 -43.4   165   14    7   8.5   4.6   29.7  85.4    19.7      M    M
 27000  -39.4 -38.9   165   12    6   8.5   4.6   29.0  84.3    19.4      M    M
 26000  -36.9 -34.4   160    9    5   8.5   4.7   28.5  83.4    19.3      M    M
 25000  -34.3 -29.7   155    7    4   8.5   4.7   28.2  82.7    19.2      M    M
 24000  -31.8 -25.2   165    6    3   8.5   4.7   27.6  81.7    19.0      M    M
 23000  -29.2 -20.6   170    4    2   8.1   4.5   27.2  80.9    18.8      M    M
 22000  -27.0 -16.6   000    0    0   7.3   4.0   26.3  79.4    18.4      M    M
 21000  -24.9 -12.8   055    2    1   6.9   3.8   25.3  77.5    17.7      M    M
 20000  -22.9  -9.2   055    4    2   6.9   3.8   24.3  75.8    17.1      M    M
 19500  -21.4  -6.5   065    5    2   6.9   3.8   23.6  74.4    16.5      M    M
 19000  -20.3  -4.5   070    5    3   7.4   4.1   23.1  73.5    16.2      M    M
 18500  -19.2  -2.6   075    6    3   8.5   4.7   22.8  73.0    16.0      M    M
 18000  -17.8  -0.0   055    8    4   9.2   5.1   22.6  72.7    16.0      M    M
 17500  -16.6   2.1   040   11    5   6.1   3.3   22.4  72.3    15.9      M    M
 17000  -15.8   3.6   035   14    7   5.1   2.8   21.6  70.9    15.2      M    M
 16500  -15.1   4.8   025   19   10   5.1   2.8   20.8  69.4    14.6      M    M
 16000  -14.3   6.3   020   23   12   5.1   2.8   20.0  68.0    14.0      M    M
 15500  -13.6   7.5   020   22   11   5.1   2.8   19.2  66.5    13.3      M    M
 15000  -12.9   8.8   025   20   10   5.0   2.7   18.4  65.1    12.6      M    M
 14500  -12.1  10.2   025   19   10   6.5   3.6   17.7  63.8    12.0      M    M
 14000  -11.0  12.2   030   18    9   6.8   3.7   17.2  62.9    11.7      M    M
 13500  -10.0  14.0   030   16    8   6.9   3.8   16.7  62.0    11.3      M    M
 13000   -9.0  15.8   035   14    7   6.9   3.8   16.2  61.2    10.9      M    M
 12500   -8.0  17.6   035   16    8   5.2   2.9   15.7  60.3    10.5      M    M
 12000   -7.2  19.0   035   17    9   3.9   2.2   14.8  58.7     9.8      M    M
 11500   -6.6  20.1   035   21   11   3.2   1.7   13.8  56.8     9.1      M    M
 11000   -5.7  21.7   030   24   13   8.2   4.5   13.1  55.6     8.6      M    M
 10500   -4.7  23.5   030   28   15   4.0   2.2   12.6  54.6     8.1      M    M
 10250   -4.5  23.9   030   30   15   3.3   1.8   12.1  53.7     7.7      M    M
 10000   -4.2  24.4   030   32   16   4.1   2.3   11.6  52.8     7.2      M    M
  9750   -3.8  25.2   035   30   15   7.5   4.1   11.2  52.2     6.9      M    M
  9500   -3.3  26.1   035   27   14   3.5   1.9   11.0  51.8     6.7      M    M
  9250   -3.5  25.7   035   25   13  -5.2  -2.9   10.1  50.2     5.8      M    M
  9000   -4.0  24.8   035   22   11  -6.7  -3.7    8.8  47.9     4.6      M    M
  8750   -4.5  23.9   030   20   10  -8.2  -4.5    7.5  45.5     3.4      M    M
  8500   -5.0  23.0   030   18    9  -1.8  -1.0    6.2  43.2     2.1      M    M
  8250   -4.7  23.5   025   15    8   7.5   4.1    5.8  42.4     1.7      M    M
  8000   -4.1  24.6   015   13    7   7.8   4.3    5.7  42.2     1.6      M    M
  7750   -3.5  25.7   010   12    6   7.7   4.2    5.5  41.9     1.4      M    M
  7500   -2.9  26.8   010   11    6   7.8   4.3    5.3  41.6     1.3      M    M
  7250   -2.4  27.7   005   10    5   7.8   4.3    5.2  41.3     1.1      M    M
  7000   -1.8  28.8   355    9    5   7.8   4.3    5.1  41.1     1.0      M    M
  6750   -1.2  29.8   355    8    4   7.8   4.3    4.9  40.8     0.8      M    M
  6500   -0.6  30.9   360    7    4   7.8   4.3    4.7  40.5     0.6      M    M
  6250   -0.1  31.8   360    6    3   7.7   4.2    4.6  40.3     0.5      M    M
  6000    0.5  32.9   005    5    3   8.2   4.5    4.4  40.0     0.3      M    M
  5750    1.1  34.0   005    5    2   6.5   3.6    4.3  39.7     0.2      M    M
  5500    1.4  34.5   005    5    2   4.0   2.2    3.9  39.0    -0.2      M    M
  5250    1.7  35.1   005    4    2   4.5   2.4    3.5  38.3    -0.7      M    M
  5000    2.0  35.6   005    4    2   2.9   1.6    3.1  37.5    -1.1      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           01/16/2017 at 0800 MST          |       01/16/2017 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +8.3  LI... +5.3                | K index... +16.1  LI... +3.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.5 -73.3  270  18  9   3.0   1.6 | -58.9 -74.0  265  18  9   2.6   1.4
 45000 -54.1 -65.4  260  20 10   3.3   1.8 | -55.1 -67.2  265  17  9   2.9   1.6
 40000 -54.5 -66.1  255   9  5  -0.4  -0.2 | -55.2 -67.4  265   7  4  -0.2  -0.1
 38000 -54.8 -66.6  235   6  3  -0.9  -0.5 | -55.4 -67.7  230   5  2  -0.8  -0.4
 36000 -55.4 -67.7  200   8  4  -0.9  -0.5 | -55.9 -68.6  180   9  5  -0.8  -0.4
 34000 -55.9 -68.6  180  12  6   3.3   1.8 | -56.2 -69.2  165  15  8   4.8   2.6
 32000 -52.0 -61.6  175  17  9   6.5   3.5 | -52.0 -61.6  160  21 11   7.0   3.8
 30000 -48.1 -54.6  170  22 11   8.4   4.6 | -47.7 -53.9  155  26 14   9.2   5.0
 29000 -45.4 -49.7  170  19 10   8.9   4.9 | -44.9 -48.8  155  23 12   9.3   5.1
 28000 -42.7 -44.9  165  17  9   8.9   4.9 | -42.2 -44.0  160  20 10   9.3   5.1
 27000 -39.4 -38.9  160  14  7   8.9   4.9 | -38.7 -37.7  160  16  8   9.1   5.0
 26000 -36.7 -34.1  155  10  5   9.0   4.9 | -36.0 -32.8  165  11  6   8.8   4.8
 25000 -34.1 -29.4  150   7  3   9.0   4.9 | -33.4 -28.1  165   6  3   8.8   4.8
 24000 -31.4 -24.5  130   4  2   9.0   5.0 | -30.8 -23.4  180   2  1   8.7   4.8
 23000 -29.0 -20.2  095   3  1   7.9   4.3 | -28.4 -19.1  025   1  1   7.9   4.3
 22000 -26.6 -15.9  055   3  2   7.9   4.4 | -26.1 -15.0  020   4  2   7.9   4.3
 21000 -24.3 -11.7  035   4  2   7.7   4.2 | -23.7 -10.7  020   6  3   7.6   4.2
 20000 -22.1  -7.8  040   6  3   7.2   4.0 | -21.5  -6.7  035   8  4   7.4   4.0
 19500 -21.1  -6.0  045   8  4   7.2   4.0 | -20.5  -4.9  040  10  5   7.4   4.0
 19000 -20.0  -4.0  045   9  4   7.2   4.0 | -19.4  -2.9  040  11  6   7.4   4.1
 18500 -18.9  -2.0  045  10  5   7.2   3.9 | -18.3  -0.9  045  12  6   7.3   4.0
 18000 -17.9  -0.2  045  11  5   6.8   3.7 | -17.2   1.0  045  12  6   7.2   3.9
 17500 -16.9   1.6  045  11  6   6.9   3.8 | -16.1   3.0  045  13  7   7.3   4.0
 17000 -15.9   3.4  045  12  6   6.8   3.7 | -15.2   4.6  045  13  7   5.9   3.3
 16500 -14.9   5.2  045  13  6   6.8   3.7 | -14.3   6.3  045  13  7   5.9   3.2
 16000 -13.9   7.0  040  13  7   6.7   3.7 | -13.5   7.7  045  13  6   5.9   3.2
 15500 -12.9   8.8  040  14  7   6.5   3.6 | -12.6   9.3  045  13  7   5.9   3.3
 15000 -12.0  10.4  040  14  7   6.4   3.5 | -11.7  10.9  045  13  7   5.9   3.2
 14500 -11.1  12.0  040  15  8   5.2   2.9 | -10.9  12.4  045  14  7   5.5   3.0
 14000 -10.4  13.3  040  15  8   5.3   2.9 | -10.1  13.8  045  14  7   5.6   3.1
 13500  -9.6  14.7  040  16  8   4.8   2.6 |  -9.3  15.3  045  15  8   5.4   3.0
 13000  -8.5  16.7  035  17  9   5.1   2.8 |  -8.1  17.4  050  16  8   5.3   2.9
 12500  -7.6  18.3  035  18  9   5.7   3.1 |  -7.4  18.7  050  16  8   5.0   2.8
 12000  -6.8  19.8  035  18  9   5.2   2.8 |  -6.7  19.9  055  17  9   4.9   2.7
 11500  -6.2  20.8  040  19 10   3.8   2.1 |  -6.0  21.2  055  17  9   4.6   2.5
 11000  -5.6  21.9  040  19 10   3.1   1.7 |  -5.3  22.5  055  16  8   4.0   2.2
 10500  -5.3  22.5  035  19 10   1.6   0.9 |  -4.8  23.4  055  16  8   3.2   1.7
 10250  -5.2  22.6  035  19 10   1.5   0.8 |  -4.6  23.7  055  16  8   3.4   1.9
 10000  -5.1  22.8  035  18  9   2.0   1.1 |  -4.4  24.1  055  16  8   0.7   0.4
  9750  -4.9  23.2  035  17  9   2.2   1.2 |  -4.4  24.1  055  15  8  -0.3  -0.2
  9500  -4.7  23.5  035  17  9   1.9   1.0 |  -4.4  24.1  055  15  8   1.4   0.8
  9250  -4.6  23.7  035  16  8   1.9   1.1 |  -4.3  24.3  050  14  7   0.7   0.4
  9000  -4.4  24.1  035  16  8   1.2   0.7 |  -4.3  24.3  050  14  7  -0.7  -0.4
  8750  -4.4  24.1  030  15  8   0.5   0.3 |  -4.3  24.3  050  13  7  -1.5  -0.8
  8500  -4.3  24.3  030  15  8   1.0   0.6 |  -4.4  24.1  050  12  6  -1.2  -0.7
  8250  -4.2  24.4  030  15  8  -0.3  -0.2 |  -4.5  23.9  050  11  6  -1.2  -0.7
  8000  -4.3  24.3  030  14  7  -2.4  -1.3 |  -4.6  23.7  045  10  5  -1.1  -0.6
  7750  -4.5  23.9  030  14  7  -2.1  -1.1 |  -4.6  23.7  045  10  5  -1.2  -0.6
  7500  -4.7  23.5  030  13  7  -1.5  -0.8 |  -4.7  23.5  040  10  5  -1.2  -0.6
  7250  -4.8  23.4  030  13  7  -0.9  -0.5 |  -4.8  23.4  035  10  5  -1.2  -0.7
  7000  -4.8  23.4  030  12  6  -0.0  -0.0 |  -4.9  23.2  030   9  5  -0.7  -0.4
  6750  -4.8  23.4  030  11  6  -0.1  -0.1 |  -5.0  23.0  020   8  4  -2.8  -1.6
  6500  -4.8  23.4  025  10  5   3.2   1.8 |  -5.1  22.8  010   7  3   3.5   1.9
  6250  -4.4  24.1  025   9  4   6.1   3.4 |  -4.5  23.9  010   6  3  10.3   5.7
  6000  -4.0  24.8  020   7  4   6.3   3.5 |  -3.8  25.2  010   5  3   8.9   4.9
  5750  -3.6  25.5  015   5  3   5.4   3.0 |  -3.1  26.4  005   5  2   9.2   5.0
  5500  -3.3  26.1  010   4  2   2.9   1.6 |  -2.5  27.5  005   5  2   8.4   4.6
  5250  -3.2  26.2  010   4  2   2.5   1.4 |  -1.9  28.6  005   5  3   8.5   4.7
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           01/16/2017 at 1400 MST          |       01/16/2017 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +15.7  LI... +4.6               | K index... +15.2  LI... +4.6
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.0 -74.2  260  19 10   2.5   1.4 | -58.6 -73.5  275  18  9   2.5   1.3
 45000 -55.2 -67.4  260  15  8   2.9   1.6 | -54.9 -66.8  270  14  7   2.8   1.5
 40000 -55.7 -68.3  300   5  3  -0.5  -0.2 | -56.0 -68.8  010   4  2  -0.9  -0.5
 38000 -55.9 -68.6  340   2  1  -0.3  -0.2 | -56.3 -69.3  055   7  3   0.2   0.1
 36000 -56.1 -69.0  145   6  3  -0.3  -0.2 | -56.2 -69.2  095   7  4   0.2   0.1
 34000 -56.0 -68.8  145  14  7   5.4   2.9 | -55.9 -68.6  115  11  5   5.1   2.8
 32000 -51.7 -61.1  140  16  8   7.2   4.0 | -51.7 -61.1  105  12  6   7.0   3.8
 30000 -47.3 -53.1  140  17  9   8.9   4.9 | -47.4 -53.3  095  13  7   9.2   5.1
 29000 -44.6 -48.3  140  14  7   8.8   4.9 | -44.6 -48.3  085  11  6   9.2   5.1
 28000 -42.0 -43.6  140  10  5   8.8   4.9 | -41.2 -42.2  065   9  5   9.2   5.1
 27000 -38.7 -37.7  150   6  3   8.7   4.8 | -38.4 -37.1  045   9  5   8.8   4.8
 26000 -36.1 -33.0  125   2  1   8.6   4.7 | -36.0 -32.8  035  10  5   8.0   4.4
 25000 -33.5 -28.3  015   3  1   8.6   4.7 | -33.6 -28.5  025  12  6   8.0   4.4
 24000 -31.0 -23.8  355   7  3   8.5   4.7 | -31.2 -24.2  020  13  7   8.1   4.4
 23000 -28.5 -19.3  010   8  4   8.1   4.4 | -28.7 -19.7  025  14  7   8.4   4.6
 22000 -26.1 -15.0  020   8  4   8.1   4.5 | -26.2 -15.2  030  14  7   8.5   4.6
 21000 -23.7 -10.7  035  10  5   8.0   4.4 | -23.7 -10.7  035  15  8   8.0   4.4
 20000 -21.4  -6.5  040  11  6   7.8   4.3 | -21.4  -6.5  035  15  8   7.7   4.2
 19500 -20.2  -4.4  040  12  6   7.8   4.3 | -20.3  -4.5  040  15  8   7.7   4.2
 19000 -19.1  -2.4  045  12  6   7.8   4.3 | -19.1  -2.4  040  15  8   7.7   4.2
 18500 -17.9  -0.2  045  13  7   7.3   4.0 | -18.0  -0.4  045  15  8   7.3   4.0
 18000 -17.0   1.4  045  13  7   6.1   3.3 | -17.0   1.4  045  15  8   6.3   3.4
 17500 -16.1   3.0  050  13  7   6.2   3.4 | -16.1   3.0  045  15  8   6.4   3.5
 17000 -15.2   4.6  050  13  7   6.0   3.3 | -15.2   4.6  045  15  8   5.7   3.1
 16500 -14.4   6.1  050  13  7   6.0   3.3 | -14.4   6.1  045  15  8   5.7   3.1
 16000 -13.5   7.7  050  13  7   6.1   3.4 | -13.6   7.5  050  15  7   5.9   3.2
 15500 -12.6   9.3  050  13  7   6.2   3.4 | -12.7   9.1  050  14  7   6.0   3.3
 15000 -11.7  10.9  055  13  7   6.2   3.4 | -11.8  10.8  050  14  7   6.0   3.3
 14500 -10.8  12.6  055  13  7   5.8   3.2 | -11.0  12.2  050  14  7   5.6   3.1
 14000  -9.9  14.2  060  13  7   5.8   3.2 | -10.2  13.6  050  13  7   5.6   3.1
 13500  -9.1  15.6  060  13  7   5.7   3.1 |  -8.9  16.0  055  12  6   5.9   3.2
 13000  -7.8  18.0  065  13  7   5.6   3.1 |  -8.0  17.6  055  12  6   5.9   3.3
 12500  -7.0  19.4  065  13  7   5.4   3.0 |  -7.1  19.2  060  12  6   6.0   3.3
 12000  -6.2  20.8  065  14  7   5.1   2.8 |  -6.2  20.8  060  13  6   5.4   3.0
 11500  -5.5  22.1  065  14  7   4.6   2.5 |  -5.5  22.1  060  13  6   4.6   2.5
 11000  -4.8  23.4  065  15  8   4.3   2.3 |  -4.9  23.2  060  13  6   3.7   2.0
 10500  -4.3  24.3  065  14  7   4.0   2.2 |  -4.5  23.9  055  12  6   2.9   1.6
 10250  -4.0  24.8  065  14  7   3.2   1.7 |  -4.3  24.3  055  11  6   2.2   1.2
 10000  -3.9  25.0  060  14  7   1.1   0.6 |  -4.2  24.4  055  11  6   0.9   0.5
  9750  -3.8  25.2  060  13  7   0.3   0.2 |  -4.1  24.6  055  10  5   0.8   0.4
  9500  -3.8  25.2  060  13  6   0.7   0.4 |  -4.1  24.6  055  10  5   0.9   0.5
  9250  -3.8  25.2  055  12  6  -0.0  -0.0 |  -4.0  24.8  055  10  5   0.7   0.4
  9000  -3.9  25.0  055  11  6  -2.1  -1.1 |  -4.0  24.8  055   9  5  -0.3  -0.2
  8750  -4.0  24.8  055  11  5  -2.2  -1.2 |  -4.0  24.8  050   9  5  -0.8  -0.4
  8500  -4.1  24.6  050  10  5  -1.8  -1.0 |  -4.1  24.6  050   8  4  -1.0  -0.6
  8250  -4.3  24.3  045   9  5  -0.8  -0.5 |  -4.1  24.6  045   8  4   0.1   0.1
  8000  -4.2  24.4  040   9  4   0.7   0.4 |  -4.1  24.6  045   8  4   1.7   0.9
  7750  -4.2  24.4  030   8  4   0.4   0.2 |  -3.9  25.0  040   8  4   2.2   1.2
  7500  -4.2  24.4  025   8  4   0.7   0.4 |  -3.8  25.2  035   9  4   2.9   1.6
  7250  -4.1  24.6  015   7  4   2.6   1.4 |  -3.5  25.7  030   9  4   3.6   2.0
  7000  -3.8  25.2  005   6  3   3.9   2.2 |  -3.2  26.2  025   8  4   4.1   2.3
  6750  -3.6  25.5  355   5  3   4.1   2.2 |  -2.9  26.8  020   7  4   4.7   2.6
  6500  -3.2  26.2  345   4  2   8.0   4.4 |  -2.5  27.5  015   6  3   7.1   3.9
  6250  -2.4  27.7  340   4  2  10.8   5.9 |  -1.9  28.6  015   5  3   8.3   4.6
  6000  -1.7  28.9  335   4  2  10.0   5.5 |  -1.3  29.7  005   4  2   8.3   4.5
  5750  -0.9  30.4  330   3  2   8.9   4.9 |  -0.8  30.6  355   3  2   5.9   3.2
  5500  -0.4  31.3  330   3  2   7.7   4.2 |  -0.5  31.1  350   3  1   2.9   1.6
  5250   0.2  32.4  335   4  2   8.5   4.6 |  -0.3  31.5  350   3  1   4.2   2.3
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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