Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 300734
SWODY3
SPC AC 300732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER/BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER HUDSON BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS/UNCLEAR...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 35-45 KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AMPLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST
WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH A CONTINUED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.

HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED AS
TIMING/MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

...NEW ENGLAND...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING/MAX SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..BUNTING.. 07/30/2015



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