Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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507
ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID AND UPPER TX COAST
NWD INTO N-CNTRL TX AND SERN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO
WRN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
A CNTRL U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW NEAR CO/NM WILL
LIFT NEWD AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SRN-CNTRL
PLAINS.  A SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE N-CNTRL
STATES.  A RESIDUAL DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS.

...TX/OK...
SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN MCS ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX.  A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE E AND S WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR A TSTM
COMPLEX TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF TX DURING
THE DAY.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT PROGRESSION OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS TX
AND THE RESULTANT EFFECTS IT WOULD HAVE ON THE QUALITY OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BOTH ACROSS THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY AND
FARTHER N OVER OK.  WITH THESE CAVEATS IN MIND...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORMING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH IN S-CNTRL TX AND FARTHER NW
NEAR A DRYLINE.  THE MERIDIONAL CHARACTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
STORM INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY LESSEN AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER E INTO
PORTIONS OF AR/LA LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING COINCIDENT
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO IA/MN/MO...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK H5 FALLS OVERSPREAD A RESIDUAL MOIST
SECTOR WITH 60S DEG F DEWPOINTS.  A PLUME OF STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY
/500-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ BY MID AFTERNOON.  A SLIGHTLY VEERING BUT
GENERAL SLY WIND PROFILE STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A
MIX MODE OF MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
MODERATELY STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /25-35 KT/.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
BEFORE IT WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING.

..SMITH.. 05/25/2016

$$



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