Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 290732
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE TO RED RIVER
TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN-STREAM
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EJECT ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/NE MEXICO AND
CNTRL/S TX. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING N. A DRYLINE SHOULD MIX E
ACROSS PARTS OF W TX AND PERHAPS EXTREME W OK TUE AFTERNOON.

...S-CNTRL STATES...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH AN INITIALLY PERVASIVE EML PLUME. DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING IS PROGGED TO BE STRONG MOST AREAS AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THIS SETUP
SHOULD YIELD A BROAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH WEAKER MLCIN
RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAYS. ALTHOUGH SPATIAL DETAILS OF WHERE CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM E OF THE DRYLINE APPEAR UNCLEAR GIVEN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS W TX AND EWD OVER
PARTS OF THE RED RIVER TO LOWER MS VALLEYS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY MODEST ESPECIALLY WHERE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF
NW TX TO CNTRL/SRN OK. BUT LARGELY 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH
STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

..GRAMS.. 03/29/2015




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