Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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WTPA41 PHFO 010251
TCDCP1

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
500 PM HST MON AUG 31 2015

EYEWALL CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
BUT A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN ASYMMETRIC AND BEEN RESTRICTED TO
THE WEST ALL DAY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 2213 UTC AMSU PASS
SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN BANDS THAT
WERE PRESENT SEVERAL HOURS AGO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN
AT 5.5/102 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 115 KT FROM PHFO. THE UW/CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC CAME IN AT 115 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA AND THE DEGRADATION IN KILO/S SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 110 KT. A 2129 UTC ASCAT PASS HELPED REFINE THE WIND
RADII...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHERE RADII WERE LARGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.

KILO HAS REMAINED ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK ALL DAY WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 340/7 KT AS IT MOVES AROUND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
EAST. AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KILO AND WILL TURN THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN
TIGHTLY GROUPED THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME
FRAME. THE DIVERGENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TRACKS IS DUE TO
DIFFERING DEPICTIONS BY THE VARIOUS MODELS OF THE STRENGTH AND
ORIENTATION OF THE FORECAST RIDGE DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONSENSUS...GFEX...WHICH PUTS KILO ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PATH
FOLLOWING ITS THE LEFT TURN AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE KILO
ACROSS THE DATELINE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC THIS EVENING.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE RESULTED IN SOME WEAKENING OF
KILO TODAY. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD EASE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER SOME NEAR
TERM WEAKENING...KILO SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN BENEATH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THUS...THE CURRENT FORECAST DROPS KILO TO 105 KT AT 12 HOURS BUT
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND SHIPS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 22.6N 179.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 23.4N 179.7E  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 24.3N 179.2E  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 24.8N 178.5E  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 25.0N 178.0E  115 KT 135 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 24.5N 176.7E  115 KT 135 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 24.0N 174.5E  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 23.5N 171.5E  125 KT 145 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA






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