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WTPA44 PHFO 012055
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 01 2015

SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES...ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALLOWED FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CENTER LOCATION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 6.0/115
KT FROM PHFO AND SAB. MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT IN PROGRESS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
AT 105 KT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290 DEGREES AT 06 KT.

JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED BY A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM A
HIGH NEAR 40N158W. THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND CURVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH ALOFT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF JIMENA. THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE JIMENA TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A
BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWED MODEST SHEAR OF AROUND
10 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWED ONLY 5 KT OF SHEAR
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...REMAIN FAIRLY
WARM AT 27.8 DEGREES C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...
COOLER SST AND INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND TO SHIPS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 16.9N 140.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 17.3N 141.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 17.8N 142.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.3N 143.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 18.8N 143.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 20.2N 144.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 22.0N 145.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 24.0N 146.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON






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