Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 222035
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
235 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The pleasant weather today won`t last much longer because the
pattern turns windier and wetter this weekend. Breezy conditions
Saturday afternoon become very windy Sunday afternoon out ahead of a
Pacific storm system. Strong to potentially damaging winds will
favor the southeastern third of the region where blowing dust may
reduce visibility on roadways. Rain and mountain snow showers will
spread across the rest of the region with minor accumulations in the
mountains of western and northern New Mexico Sunday and Monday.
Precipitation chances stick around through Tuesday, favoring the
northern mountains. Temperatures rebound mid next week, but windier
and wetter weather may return by the end of the week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

An upper level ridge will transition east across the area tonight
and be replaced with increasing southwest flow aloft on Saturday
ahead of a potent long wave trough. A weak backdoor front that
pushed down the eastern plains last night into early this morning
will continue spreading west this evening and result in a southeast
wind at Santa Fe, but has only a low chance at creating gusty east
canyon winds here in Albuquerque. Increasing southerly flow in the
lower boundary layer and a deepening lee side trough will bring
breezy to windy conditions Saturday, with the windiest conditions
across northeast NM during the afternoon hours. A Wind Advisory may
be needed for the Johnson/Bartlett Mesas forecast zone for Saturday
afternoon. Cloud cover will trend up Saturday as well due to Pacific
moisture advection ahead of the approaching trough. Otherwise,
Saturday will be warm with high temperatures near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A strong 140-160kt jet streak will move over the area early Sunday,
inducing the development of a deep lee side Low in southwest Kansas.
By the afternoon, some models have the sfc low around 978mb which
will help to drive very strong southwest winds along and east of the
central mountain chain. The strongest wind gusts are expected in the
southeast plains where 50kt+ winds at 700mb may intermittently mix
down to the surface. Increasing mid-level moisture from the west
will favor the development of inverted-V soundings and evaporative
cooling from showers could help even stronger winds make it to the
surface. It will still be breezy to locally windy along and west of
the central mountain chain where scattered rain and snow showers
move in along a Pacific cold front. Mixing won`t be as deep in
western NM, but the more unstable mid-levels will support more
showers and even a few storms that will be capable of producing
gusty downburst winds. The other concern on Sunday will be blowing
dust in the southeast and east-central plains where soil moisture is
sub-15% and will therefore get kicked up in stronger gusts.

Winds decrease Monday in the post-frontal environment, but breezy to
windy conditions will continue to prevail, creating blowing snow in
the high terrain. Blowing snow won`t be as much of a concern for the
mid-elevation locations (6-8kft) since any snow that does fall there
will be on the wet-side given the marginal temperatures. A few
inches of snow will still likely create slick roads at those
elevations. Snow on Monday will favor the Sangre de Cristo mountains
and the northeast highlands as a result of upslope flow behind a
backdoor front. However, even there impacts should be minor at
worst.

The trend has been towards ridging developing around the middle of
next week, allowing temps to moderate and PoPs to decrease. A couple
weak northwesterly shortwaves out ahead of the ridge could generate
some precip, over the high terrain Wednesday through Friday, but
amounts will very low. Model agreement isn`t great late in the week,
but 2 out of 4 clusters show a troughing signal over the desert
southwest, indicating that the wetter and windier pattern may
return in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with increasing westerly flow aloft. Areas of low stratus
with MVFR or even IFR conditions will develop overnight across
northeast NM, but are not forecast to impact KLVS or KTCC at this
time. Otherwise, expect the development and gradual lowering of
VFR cigs tonight through Saturday morning. A weak backdoor cold
front that has already moved down the eastern plains will push
through KSAF later this evening, but is not forecast to create
gusty east canyon winds at KABQ at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Winds will be on the uptrend through the weekend as a potent upper
level trough/low approaches from the west coast. Elevated fire
weather conditions are forecast across northeast NM Saturday
afternoon, but the stronger winds arrive Sunday with with a Pacific
cold front. Winds will be strongest across south central and eastern
NM Sunday, where spotty critical fire weather conditions are likely
near the TX border. The trough will bring good chances for wetting
precipitation to the mountains Sunday into Sunday night, with a
second trough bringing good chances on Monday. A 3rd and final
trough will move through Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing
another round of wetting precipitation that will once again favor
the mountains. Temperatures will fall behind the Pacific cold front
on Sunday and be below normal through Wednesday. Expect a break with
a ridge on Wednesday, followed by another trough that will bring
windy conditions and more critical fire weather Thu/Fri, mainly to
eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  38  64  36  49 /   0   5  40  70
Dulce...........................  33  59  31  45 /   5  20  60  90
Cuba............................  35  59  31  43 /   0   5  20  80
Gallup..........................  32  62  30  43 /   0   0  60  70
El Morro........................  32  60  28  39 /   0   0  30  70
Grants..........................  32  64  30  45 /   0   0  20  60
Quemado.........................  34  62  31  43 /   0   0  20  60
Magdalena.......................  40  65  36  47 /   0   0   0  40
Datil...........................  35  61  31  42 /   0   0  10  40
Reserve.........................  33  66  31  46 /   0   0  40  60
Glenwood........................  44  70  38  47 /   0   0  50  70
Chama...........................  30  54  27  39 /   5  20  70  90
Los Alamos......................  39  59  36  44 /   0   5  20  80
Pecos...........................  34  60  34  45 /   0   5   5  70
Cerro/Questa....................  36  54  38  40 /   5   5  30  60
Red River.......................  29  48  26  39 /   5  10  30  70
Angel Fire......................  26  51  23  38 /   0   5  20  60
Taos............................  31  60  31  47 /   0   5  20  50
Mora............................  32  57  31  47 /   0   5  10  50
Espanola........................  38  66  36  52 /   0   5  20  70
Santa Fe........................  38  61  35  47 /   0   5  20  80
Santa Fe Airport................  37  64  35  50 /   0   0  10  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  46  67  40  53 /   0   0   5  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  69  40  54 /   0   0   0  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  43  71  39  56 /   0   0   0  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  43  69  40  55 /   0   0   5  60
Belen...........................  41  72  38  57 /   0   0   0  50
Bernalillo......................  43  69  40  55 /   0   0   5  70
Bosque Farms....................  41  71  37  56 /   0   0   0  60
Corrales........................  42  70  40  56 /   0   0   5  60
Los Lunas.......................  41  71  38  56 /   0   0   0  60
Placitas........................  43  66  39  50 /   0   0  10  80
Rio Rancho......................  43  69  39  55 /   0   0   5  70
Socorro.........................  44  73  43  59 /   0   0   0  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  39  60  36  45 /   0   0   5  70
Tijeras.........................  40  64  36  47 /   0   0   5  70
Edgewood........................  37  64  35  49 /   0   0   0  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  34  66  32  51 /   0   0   0  50
Clines Corners..................  34  62  33  47 /   0   0   0  50
Mountainair.....................  39  64  34  48 /   0   0   0  50
Gran Quivira....................  37  64  35  49 /   0   0   0  50
Carrizozo.......................  45  68  43  54 /   0   0   0  30
Ruidoso.........................  39  63  38  45 /   0   0   0  40
Capulin.........................  33  60  34  55 /   5  10   5  10
Raton...........................  32  63  33  57 /   5  10   5  20
Springer........................  35  65  33  57 /   5  10   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  34  61  35  51 /   0   5   0  30
Clayton.........................  35  63  44  64 /   5  10   5  10
Roy.............................  35  62  40  59 /   5  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  39  69  46  64 /   5  10   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  39  67  41  58 /   0   5   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  37  69  46  66 /   5   5   5   5
Clovis..........................  38  67  49  66 /   0   0   0  10
Portales........................  37  69  49  67 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  40  70  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
Roswell.........................  47  74  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  41  71  45  59 /   0   0   0  10
Elk.............................  40  70  42  56 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
NMZ223-225-226-229>240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11


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