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000
FXAK69 PAFG 131455
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
655 AM AKDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska remains in an active weather pattern with fast
zonal westerly flow bringing a series of storms east across the
Northern part of the state over the next several days. A cold
Arctic airmass now covers most of Northern Alaska and will remain
into Mon, then be followed by warming to above normal conditions
from Tue through next weekend.

A storm moving north along the Dateline this weekend is expected
to bring strong southerly winds along with snow and blowing snow
to the West Coast of Alaska from St Lawrence Island and the Bering
Strait north to Point Hope then to Utqiagvik from Sunday
afternoon into Monday. South winds could gust between 30 and 50
mph and there could be near blizzard conditions in snow and
blowing snow. Snow fall amounts of 2 to 6 inches are possible,
with the heaviest amounts near Kivalina, Point Hope and Red Dog
Mine. The strongest winds and lowest visibility are expected in
the Bering Strait and near Red Dog and Kivalina from Sunday night
into Monday. There is still much uncertainty on this exact storm
track, so forecasted conditions could change.


Aloft...
Zonal Westerly flow will become southwest on Mon and southerly on
Tue as a ridge builds from the Eastern Pacific north over the
ALCAN Border next week. This will keep Northern AK cool through
Sun, warming closer to normal on Mon, and then warming above
normal Tue through the end of next week.

Surface...
A weather front from North of Demarcation Point to a 1000 mb low
near Arctic Village to Northway north will move east today. Light
snow along the front will taper off west of the front.

A 1004 mb low 60 NM west of Point Hope will move to 100 NM south
of Prudhoe Bay as a 1008 mb low by 4pm Sat, to 100 NM south of
Barter Island as a 1011 mb low by 4am Sun, and then move east. A
front trailing this feature will move to Umiat to the Bering
Strait by 4pm Sat, to Arctic VIllage to the Bering Strait by 4am
Sun, and to Northway to the Southern Chukchi Sea by 4pm Sun.
Light near the low will spread east across the North Slope and
Brooks Range today with a chance of snow over the Northern
Interior and Seward Pen. West winds of 15 to 25 mph and blowing
snow will trailing along and behind the front/low. Expect 1-2
inches of snow and some blowing snow with this low/ front.

High pressure building in behind the low will cause some clearing
Sun.

A 1002 mb low developing near Anadyr on Sun will move to 60 NM
northwest of Point Hope as a 1000 mb low by 4am Mon. This will
bring snow, blowing snow and strong south winds to West Coast of
Alaska from St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait north to
Point Hope then to Utqiagvik from Sunday afternoon into Monday.
We have issued an SPS for this as there is much models difference
on this feature, As things become more certain may issue Winter
Weather Advisories.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 4am Sun, then both the NAM and GFS take a
low aloft near Shemya and deepen it rapidly while moving it east
across the southern Bering Sea. The ECMWF and the Canadian models
move this feature east along the Aleutians and do not deepen it.
There is no obvious reason for the rapid deepening shown by the
GFS and NAM, but there is reason to not expect it in that there is
a second low aloft trailing southwest of the first one, and any
short wave energy that drops south into the long wave trough
should be caught up in this second trailing feature first and
project its energy into the first feature. For these reasons we
favor the ECMWF and Canadian models for features aloft.

With precipitation, favor the ECMWF since it is the favored
solution aloft.

At the surface at 06Z, models are all 3-4 mb too weak on the low
in the Chukchi Sea but do well on other features. The Canadian
model seems to initialize best on this feature, so we are using
the Canadian for surface features, but keeping this features
deeper than models indicate today. Will use the Canadian model for
surface features and winds, but increase winds 2-4 kt along the
Arctic Coast trailing the low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Slightly elevated Sea levels from St Lawrence Is and the Bering
Strait to Point Hope Sun night and Mon.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

JB