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000
FXAK69 PAFG 151317
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
517 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Westerly flow pattern that has brought and Arctic airmass
across Northern Alaska is turning southwest today and southerly
on Tue then remain south into Wed. This is bringing stormy
conditions to St Lawrence Is, the Bering Strait, NW Alaska and the
Western North Slope late through tonight or Tue, with stormy
conditions spreading into much of the remainder of the West Coast
later today into Tue. There will be snow, blowing snow and strong
south winds. Expect southerly gales and areas of blizzard
conditions. Expect 6-12 inches of snow at Kivalina, Point Hope and
Red Dog along with near blizzard conditions through Tue. Expect
6-12 inches of snow Mon into Tue on the Southern Seward Peninsula
from Golovin west. Expect 2-4 inches of snow and near blizzard
conditions over the Yk Delta Mon into Tue as well.

Will issue Winter Weather advisory for Kotzebue for tonight due to
strong winds and falling and blowing snow expected.
Will upgrade Winter Weather Advisory to Winter Storm Warning for
the Southern Seward Pen and also issue one for inland areas. Will
issue Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Brooks Range for
tonight into Tue night.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a very deep 9800 meter 500 mb
low near 80N,170W, with a long wave trough extending south over NE
Russia into the Western Bering Sea, and a ridge over the Pacific
extending north over southern Mainland AK. The pattern will become
more amplified Tue as the long wave trough deepens over the
Bering and Central Pacific with several strong short waves
dropping from Russia south into the trough, and the ridge builds
north over Alaska. The pattern progresses on Wed as the trough
moves over the Eastern Bering and the ridge builds over the ALCAN
border area. This pattern become negatively tilted through the
end of the week with the ridge building NW over Northern AK and
the trough deepening over the Gulf of AK. This will cause SW flow
today that will become southerly Tue and remain southerly Wed,
then become southeast Thu and Fri and possibly into the weekend.
What this all means is that we will see stormy conditions over the
West Coast, Western Interior, Central Brooks Range and Western
North Slope today into Tue and possibly into Wed, while the
Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope remain mainly dry.
Temperatures will rise to near normal over the Interior and
Eastern North Slope today, while the West Coast and Western North
Slope rise above normal. All areas will rise to warmer than normal
by Tue and remain warmer than normal through the end of the week.
Most areas will see drying conditions Thu and Fri.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z, models show similar
solutions aloft through 4pm Tue. Tue night and Wed the ECMWF and
NAM keep the long wave trough further east near the Bering Strait
than the Canadian and GFS. Since we dont have any reason to rule
out any solutions after 4pm Tue, we will use a blend of models for
features aloft through Wed.

With precipitations, models show similar large scale precip
patterns but differ some on details. At this time will use a blend
of models for precip areal coverage and amounts. Highlights are:
Snow over NW AK and the Bering Strait will spread north to
Utqiagvik this morning and continue into this afternoon. Another
area of snow spreading north to St Lawrence Is and the YK Delta
this afternoon will spread over most of the West Coast, central
Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast and far Western Interior
tonight (possibly excepting the downslope area near Deering,
Buckland and Kotzebue), and continuing into Tue, then spreading
back along the West Coast and SW Interior Tue night and Wed.
Expect total snowfalls of 6-12 inches over NW AK through Tue
night,heaviest near Red Dog Mine, 6-12 inches over the Southern
Seward Pen, heaviest inland and 4 inches over the Bering Strait,
St Lawrence Is and the YK Delta and Lower Yukon Valley.

At the surface at 06Z, the low over the Chukotsk Pen is 2 mb
deeper than models indicate and the low in the southern Bering is
1-2 mb deeper. Models track these surface lows similarly through
Tue, then the GFS and Canadian keep the residual low in the
Northern Bering further south than the NAM and ECMWF. Prefer the
track of the NAM and ECMWF but since the NAM keeps the low now in
the southern Bering Sea deeper for a long time than other models,
and since the low is slightly deeper than models verify, will
favor the NAM for surface fields and winds. Highlights include:
SW winds 25 kt along the Western Arctic Coast today into this
evening. Southerly gales moving over the Northeast Bering Sea
today, then spreading north along the West Coast tonight, then
decreasing over the West Coast from the south on Tue, while
spreading SW winds 20-30kt over the Brooks Range and much of the
North Slope on Tue, then decreasing Tue night. Could see gusts to
50 kt along the West Coast late today and through Brooks Range
Passes late tonight and Tue. South winds gusting 50 mph through AK
Range passes Tue night and Wed.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Sea levels 2 to 4 feet above normal along the West Coast Monday
into Tuesday could cause water to push on top of the ice near
shore.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801-814.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802-803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ826.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-813-852-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-816-817-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812-857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-853.
&&

$$