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FXAK69 PAFG 281034
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 AM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
232 AM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather persists over Northern Alaska as high pressure is
the dominating feature. This high is centered over the Beaufort
Sea and stretches into the Bering Sea. Fog and stratus will be
around the Arctic Coast today with a slight breeze from the east.
Along the West Coast, other than some stratus and areas of fog,
the weather will be tranquil and dry. There is a weak wave of
energy over the Western Interior gradually moving over the
Central and Eastern Interior this evening and tonight. This will
be the culprit for a few higher terrain rain showers east and
southeast of Fairbanks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
Weak ridging will dominate the weather around the state today.
There are a couple of weak upper level lows west of Point Lay and
over Russia that will provide weak offshore flow along the Chukchi
Sea Coast and weak onshore flow along the northern coast of the
Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue Sound. Looking further into the
forecast, the flow in the Interior turns a bit more zonal as a
trough dips southwest over the North Slope. This is a change from
yesterday when the ECMWF and Canadian brought a strong upper low
southwest. These have trended more towards the GFS solution with
troughing now expected over the northern half of the state through
the early part of the week. Relatively weak ridging develops in
the Southeast Interior during this time as well. Once we get into
the middle of the week, there is a lot of disagreement in the
models when it comes to upper level feature strength and
placement. However, ensemble data remains relatively locked in on
weak ridging over the Interior while weak troughing remains over
the North Slope.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Areas of fog and stratus will remain from the Kotzebue Sound to
the Bering Strait as onshore flow persists today. South of the
Bering Strait the weather looks to be quiet and dry with pockets
stratus and fog lingering in St. Lawrence Island and west facing
shores, especially from Unalakleet to Chevak. Otherwise, expect
much of the same through the early part of the week as the pattern
won`t be changing too much. By Tuesday night, there may be a
slight reprieve from stratus and fog as winds increase and turn
offshore. Rain chances will also increase Tuesday night,
specifically in Southwest AK as a low moves over the Aleutians
bringing areas of light rain and showers from Galena south.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Quiet weather persists today over much of the Interior. A weak
front will be moving from west to east this afternoon and evening
which may spark a few showers over the higher terrain, especially
east of Fairbanks and near the Fortymile River. A few showers may
develop over the Eastern AK Range as well. Tomorrow will remain
mostly dry and this carries into Tuesday as well. However, by
Tuesday afternoon and evening, there will be weak westerly flow
with a few small waves of energy moving along it. This may be
enough to spark isolated to scattered showers over the Interior
and AK Range. There is no specific area where it looks more or
less likely to occur, but rain showers will be increasingly likely
across the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The North Slope will keep a slight easterly breeze through Monday
morning then turn northerly as the high moves west allowing for a
low by the Canadian Archipelago to get in on the action. From
Utqiagvik south and west, the high looks to hang on for a bit
longer which will keep the area dry. East of there may be a
different story. Model solutions are a bit different but all have
a similar idea. It is looking like northerly flow dominates with
fog which can be locally dense, stratus, as well as chances for
snow on Tuesday. This can continue into Wednesday as the main
system works its way onshore. Confidence in this exact solution is
low and there will be changes over the coming days as models
determine how this setup evolves. Either way, nothing looks to be
too impactful moving forward through the week, more of a nuisance
than anything else.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
High uncertainty looking into the extended forecast. There are a
lot of moving parts and deterministic models are struggling. But,
ensembles seem to be pretty stable showing weak ridging over the
Interior and weak troughing over the North Slope. We are
monitoring a boundary that may set up along or near the Brooks
Range Tuesday night into Wednesday which may provide westerly flow
over the Interior and southwest flow in SW AK. Very subtle waves
of energy may try to move along the boundary providing isolated to
scattered showers on Wednesday then drying out for the most part
on Thursday. Thereafter, the pattern will depend on how strong the
ridging over Canada will be. At this time, the GFS, ECMWF and
Canadian all have a Canadian ridge by Friday, but the placement
is vastly different as we will be ironing out the details through
the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today and into the beginning of
next week with highs mainly in the lower 50s. Minimum relative
humidity values look to bottom out around 25% today around
Fairbanks and 25-35% in the upper Tanana Valley. Tomorrow and
Tuesday look to be drier with RHs dropping to around 20-25%
across the Tanana Valley. Winds will be generally light from the
east/northeast around 10 mph or less with the occasional gusts to
20 mph near prone gap areas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River and lake ice continues to decay across the Interior. Use
extreme caution if traveling on ice.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Bianco