084
FXAK67 PAJK 031306
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
506 AM AKDT Fri May 3 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Short range forecast
continues to be rather quiet as high pressure and light offshore
flow persists across the area. Few if any clouds over the
panhandle except a layer of high thin cirrus. The clear
conditions have lead to some areas in the north dipping near
freezing overnight so frost advisories remain up until 8 am this
morning. Those same clearer conditions will lead to a sunny warm
day today which will likely be the warmest day of the week. Highs
are expected to reach into the 60s with the warmer air getting
pushed into the panhandle from the south (850 mb temps rising to 2
to 4c) by the weakening low in the central gulf.

As for winds, inner channel winds have shown an upward trend
overnight as northerly pressure gradients increased as the ridge
over the panhandle was pushed into Canada. This was especially
noticeable in the north where Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, and
Cross Sound are showing E to N winds of 15 to 20 kt this morning.
These winds should start to lower again this afternoon into
tonight as the ridge rebuilds into the panhandle and slackens
pressure gradients. Winds also remain elevated in the central gulf
this morning (25 to 30 kt E winds) from the weakening low in the
south central gulf. That low is not long for this world however as
it is expected to weakens away by this afternoon weakening the
winds in the gulf as it does so.

.LONG TERM...Change in store for Southeast Alaska from the very
beginning of this medium & long range forecast period. A weakening
front crossing the Gulf will still produce some rain Saturday
along the northeast Gulf Coast. South of Cape Fairweather,
conditions should remain dry, if not sunny, through the daylight
hours on Saturday, but a short wave will rejuvenate the distal end
of the front as it approaches the southern outer coast late
Saturday night and all locations should see at least a little
measurable rain on Sunday. Unsettled weather and shower activity
will remain over the region through the middle of the work week.
Looking well out into the long range, there are indications in
long range guidance that at least part of the Panhandle may see
some heavy rain Thursday and Thursday night. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance are both picking up on this and it was a topic
of discussion and coordination with WPC this morning.

Along with the increased cloudiness, there will be a subtle
reduction in daytime highs during this extended range forecast.
Very little change to overnight lows until Wednesday night when
they warm ever so slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Off shore
winds persist through today, with winds decreasing through the
afternoon as a weakening surface low pressure dissipates within
the north Pacific and upper level ridging builds in aloft. Clouds
should be limited to FEW to SCT cirrus with isolated afternoon CU
development over land.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ317-319>321-
     325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....Fritsch
AVIATION...NM

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