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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230603
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
203 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will
build east this evening, and settle over the local area by
Tuesday morning. The high will slide off the Carolina coast
later Tuesday, followed by a weak cold front pushing through the
region on Wednesday. Strong high pressure builds from the
eastern Great Lakes eastward to off the New England coast
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Monday...

After collaboration with surrounding offices, have added the
Maryland Eastern Shore counties to the Frost Advisory for
tonight. The best frost potential for these counties will be
away from the water/across interior portions of the counties.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track this evening with only
some minor adjustments in temperatures and dewpoints to account
for the latest observations.

Previous Discussion: The latest WX analysis indicates ~1025mb
sfc high pressure centered across the lower MS Valley, with sfc
low pressure well off the SE US coast. Aloft, a trough that
extends down into GA is pushing towards the coast, and will push
offshore by early this evening. A NNE low level flow along with
some colder air aloft has led to SCT-BKN cumulus cloud cover
lingering in SE VA and NE NC in addition to the mid/high clouds.
Temperatures remain rather cool, ranging from the low-mid 50s
at the coast in the SE, to the lower 60s along the I-95
corridor. The cloud cover will continue to diminish through the
late aftn and the sky will be mostly clear all areas towards
sunset. The sfc high pressure system becomes centered over the
local area later tonight, allowing for a clear sky, light winds,
and good radiational cooling conditions. This will allow for
the sfc dew pts to rise several degrees (from the 20s into the
lower 30s) after sunset, conducive for frost formation. Will go
a few degrees below NBM, with forecast lows will be in the low-
mid 30s over rural areas W of the Chesapeake Bay (upper 30s in
more urban portions). Near the coast, lows will generally be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. The Frost Advisory has been expanded
a few counties to the E Chesapeake/Suffolk, etc.) given the
favorable position of the sfc high into the coastal plain of SE
VA and NE NC. Will also mention patchy frost another tier to the
Bay (outside of urban Hampton Roads) and across the MD eastern
shore.

Mainly sunny with just a few high clouds on Tuesday as the sfc
high drifts off the Carolina coast by aftn. This will allow for
a SSW wind ~10mph well inland by aftn (with a bit more of an
onshore flow near the coast)> highs will warm into the lower 70s
well inland, with mid to upper 60s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Increasing clouds move in overnight Tue into Wed morning in
advance of the next cold front, keeping lows much milder and
ranging from the mid/upper 40s over interior southern VA/NE NC,
to the lower 50s elsewhere. Goof model agreement with the main
sfc low tracking east through Quebec into northern New England
on Wednesday, dragging a cold front through the local area
during the aftn. This system will be moisture starved for areas
east of the Appalachians and S of the Mason Dixon, with low
level flow turning westerly rather quickly. As such, PoPs will
only be 25-30% N and ~15-20% S. It will be well mixed and
warmer, with highs into the mid to upper 70s SE to the lower
70s N/NW. The front pushes SSE of the area Wed night, with sfc
high pressure building eastward across the Great Lakes. There
will be enough mixing to keep temperatures from dropping off too
much except over the N/NW zones. Lows will be in the upper
30s/around 40F NW to the upper 40s SE. High pressure will build
from the eastern Great Lakes eastward to off the New England coast
Thu through Fri. Mostly sunny and cool Thu with highs ranging
from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Clear/mostly clear Thu night with
lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost will be
possible, mainly over the northern 1/2 of the FA from the
piedmont to e-central VA and the eastern shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

The medium range will begin with an amplifying upper ridge from
the Gulf of Mexico to the upper midwest, expanding to the east
coast over the weekend. This ridge looks a bit stronger compared
to previous model runs, which should keep the FA mainly dry
through the weekend (any showers across the N Sat night into
Sun morning will generally stay along the mountains per latest
NBM so PoPs will be silent at 14% or less). Temperatures trend
from still a bit cool Fri (highs in the 60s to near 70F) to
near normal Sat (highs in the 70s) , to above normal Sun- Mon
(80s inland) as the upper ridge remains across the ern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions with mainly SKC skies continue through the 06z
TAF period. High pressure remains in control of the weather
pattern through tonight. Light/variable winds early this morning
shift to the SSW inland (S to SSE along the coast) by this
afternoon, increasing to ~10 knots. A few gusts of 15-20 knots
will be possible this afternoon over inland terminals. VFR to
start this evening, with increasing mid to high clouds by
evening into Wed morning.

Outlook: A few showers (isolated to scattered) push across the
area in association with a crossing cold front on Wednesday.
However, flying conditions should stay primarily VFR. Dry/VFR
conditions then persist for the late week period into the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Surface analysis shows broad high pressure stretching from eastern
TX NE into the Ohio Valley with deepening low pressure now well off
the NC coast. Winds continue to slowly decrease today and now
average N 10-15 kt over the local waters. Waves in the bay are 1-3
ft (highest near the mouth). Seas offshore range from 3-4 ft N to 5-
7 ft S.

Higher seas continue to hang on across the southern coastal waters
despite decreasing wind speeds. Opted to extend the SCA for the
ocean south of Cape Charles Light until 7pm with the waters south of
the VA/NC border extended until 10pm (this zone may require another
extension this evening as seas are notoriously slow to subside here
even in weak NE winds). Otherwise, quiet marine weather is expected
tonight into Tuesday. Secondary low pressure deepens along the
stalled front well offshore late Tuesday and will keep some enhanced
8-10 second E-SE swell moving toward the coast, likely necessitating
another round of SCA for all/most of the coastal waters Tue night.
Meanwhile, a mainly dry cold front approaches from the west late
Tuesday into Wednesday. A re-tightening of the surface pressure
gradient results in increasing SW winds to around 15 kt, though some
low-end SCA may also be needed in the Bay and lower James River. The
front moves through the region Wednesday night into early Thursday,
with increasing N winds and potential for SCA headlines in its
wake.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024.
NC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012>014-030.
VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-096-097-509>522.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...MAM/RHR