Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250800
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
300 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tonight) Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

As of the latest 07Z obs this morning, areas of rain and snow have
developed early this morning across the north central and
northwestern combined Panhandles. Further to the north across SE
COlorado and SW Kansas, winds behind the passing cold front have
reached sustained values between 30-40 mph with gusts over 50 mph.

Some of these stronger northerly winds will move south into the
Panhandles throughout the morning hours in the wake of the cold
front. This will result in periods of blowing snow that could
reduce visibilities at times, especially throughout the morning
hours. With warmer temperatures initially ahead of the cold front,
portions of the central and western Panhandles will start as rain
before quickly changing over to snow. With initial warmer
temperatures and slightly drier airmass further south closer to
I-40, the snow could be slightly delayed in accumulating, but
eventually should start on the grass surfaces before accumulating
on the roadways. Latest hi-res log-p analysis over most of the
central and western Panhandles in the wake of the cold front shows
good moisture in the dendritic growth zone. The only concern
further south closer to I-40 will be if the moisture transport
around the H700 low being suffice for a prolong period of
snowfall. However, with several hours of northerly flow behind the
front could result in locally enhanced snowfall totals along the
Canadian River Valley. These favored areas could see a quick inch
or locally higher amounts of snow before the system exits to the
northeast, and this includes that potential in the Amarillo area.
Further north across the northern Panhandles, up to 2 to 3 inches
cannot be completely ruled out, especially in the northwestern
Panhandles closer to the better moisture source and lift from the
departing low pressure system. Snow chances will end from SW to
NE with the last of the snow exiting the far NE combined
Panhandles later tonight. High temperatures today under cloudy
skies and CAA will struggle to get out of the 30s in most
locations behind the front. Lows tonight will get down into the
20s, with teens in some areas perhaps, especially areas with some
snow cover, favoring the northwestern Panhandles.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Much of the central to western CONUS is under large and broad
upper level trough with a closed H5 low currently tracking across
the OK Panhandle into portions of SE CO and SW KS. A strong cold
air mass is currently on its way into the combined Panhandles with
possible snow showers as moisture wraps around the H5 low. After
a taste of winter today, the long term will have more spring to
even early summer vibes going into next weekend.

Tomorrow, the closed H5 low will have moved off to the northeast.
However, the much broader trough will stick around for the next
couple of days bringing below normal temperatures for Tue and Wed.
Upslope winds and cloud cover will also hold back warming on these
days. Tuesday into Tue night some showers may be possible across
the southern TX Panhandle as perturbations propogate across on the
base of the trough. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out for
the western Panhandles Tue evening.

By Wed night the combined Panhandles will come under northwest
flow aloft with the upper level ridging building over the
Intermountain West. It will be this ridge to bring forth afternoon
highs near normal for Thu then almost 10 to 12 degrees above
normal for Fri-Sun. With thos warm temperatures Fri-Sun some
breezy southwest winds may feed some elevated fire weather
conditions if not low end critical with RH values progged to fall
into the 10 to 15 percent range especially in the western FA.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR conditions to start the 06Z TAF period. Within the next 1-3
hours after the start of the TAF period, MVFR to potentially IFR
cigs should move into all TAF sites. All sites may also experience
BLSN at time, reducing vsbys for periods of time. A return back to
VFR is possible past 00Z Tuesday for KDHT/KGUY. Winds will shift
from westerly to northerly within the next hour or so at all sites
behind cold front. Winds will be sustained out of the north
20-25uesdaykts with gusts up to 35 kts at times. Winds will
subside slightly past 00Z Tuesday to the end of the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                36  25  54  30 /  40  10  10  20
Beaver OK                  34  20  49  23 /  80  30   0  10
Boise City OK              31  17  46  24 /  80   0  10  10
Borger TX                  38  25  55  32 /  60   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              37  24  56  30 /  70  10  10  20
Canyon TX                  38  25  56  30 /  30   0  10  30
Clarendon TX               43  28  55  31 /  10   0   0  20
Dalhart TX                 33  19  49  25 /  80  10  10  20
Guymon OK                  31  18  49  25 /  90  10   0  10
Hereford TX                40  25  57  30 /  40   0  10  30
Lipscomb TX                39  24  52  27 /  40  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   37  25  53  30 /  40  10   0  10
Shamrock TX                46  28  55  30 /  10   0   0  10
Wellington TX              51  30  56  32 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001>004-006>008-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...29


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