070
FXUS64 KAMA 291139
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Monday and Tuesday look to feature quasi-zonal flow aloft with
slowly building heights aloft. Persistent flow over the Rockies to
our west will encourage the development of lee surface troughing,
resulting in southwesterly winds in the Panhandles. These should
combine for a noted warming trend, with highs in the 90s favored
Tuesday. Additionally, this should lead to low humidity values by
Tuesday, with single digit RH values possible in much of the area.
That said, progged winds 700/850mb winds Tuesday are generally
around or under 20 knots, so winds will generally be too light for
critical fire danger to develop. As for precipitation potential,
while moisture return does look to occur Tuesday, aforementioned
period of downslope winds will likely reduce quality of said
return in the Panhandles and, along with the rising heights
aloft, prevent any convection from developing in the forecast
area. The chance for a thunderstorm remains 10 percent in the SE
TX Panhandle unless you consider guidance other than the NAM, in
which case the chance would be closer to zero. In any case,
progged deep layer shear near 20 knots suggests severe risk is
also very low aside from a stray damaging gust given the favored
deep, well-mixed boundary layer.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Wednesday looks to be the hottest day as southwest flow will push up
some very warm air, and 850mb temperatures look to be in the upper
20C range, pushing close to 30C.  We are looking at another dryline
setup on Wednesday evening, but some soundings indicate very strong
capping east of the dryline, and models are starting to pull back on
the precipitation east of the dryline.  We are outlooked by SPC from
Amarillo to Guymon east for severe weather, and if the cap can break
than there`s plenty of dynamics to support severe storms with all
hazards. The Cap...This has been the story of the past month, that
we have plenty of ingredients for severe weather, but we just
can`t break that cap.  So we`ll continue to keep an eye on the east
for a severe threat on Wednesday evening, but it`s highly
conditional.

Thursday`s highs will be cooled off a bit for the north, but still
looks to be in the 80s across the south, as the front stalls across
the Panhandles. We might get a few showers or storms across the
Panhandles along the frontal boundary.  Friday the trough should be
through and most areas will be in the mid to upper 70s.  Some models
are hinting at a rapid departure of the trough and transition to a
warmer zonal flow.  So will not rule out high being bumped back up
into the low 80s for Friday if this trend continues.

Saturday zonal flow will shift to southwest flow and it looks like
we may have a shortwave move across the area which certainly looks
to trigger some scattered to possibly widespread showers and storms.
NBM pops in the 20 to 40 percent range look reasonable at this time.
Skies may be mostly cloudy on Saturday with the wave moving across
and therefore highs are being held to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Sunday looks to be another transition back to zonal flow, with
perhaps another shortwave embedded for a isolated shower or storm
and highs in the 80s.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are strongly favored (95%) to continue over the
next 24 hours. Winds will return to a usual diurnal pattern, with
southwesterly winds during the daytime hours and south-
southeasterlies at night.

Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  52  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  82  54  93  53 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              76  46  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  87  55  96  57 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              83  50  93  51 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  50  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               83  54  92  59 /   0   0  10   0
Dalhart TX                 79  44  89  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  81  48  90  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                83  50  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                82  56  93  59 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   82  54  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                83  55  92  59 /   0   0  10  10
Wellington TX              84  56  92  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...77