Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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273 FXUS64 KAMA 010809 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 309 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Summary: Wednesday brings yet another setup - at least the third in the past three weeks - where critical fire weather conditions are expected in the western Panhandles and severe thunderstorms may occur in the east. In contrast to the past two weeks, remaining uncertainty about severe thunderstorms does not focus on if they will develop but where, with the late afternoon location of the dryline the primary forecast question. Very large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary risks but a tornado or two would be possible as well. Details: 07z WV satellite shows west-southwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles and Four Corners. A larger than expected area of convection is seen over OK ahead of a shortwave. At the surface, dewpoints in the 50s and 60s are surging north-northwestward with the dryline making its usual nocturnal retreat to the west - dewpoints west of this feature are generally around 20. Today, lee surface troughing should continue to our west, with downslope winds continuing our trend of highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Additionally, expect the western Panhandles to see RH values drop into the single digits, particularly the far west central TX Panhandle, where overnight recovery looks to be poor. This should lead to critical fire weather conditions but, given lack of a notable LLTR and modest mid-level winds, highly aggressive fire behavior is not favored. In the east, expect moist advection to continue, allowing dewpoints to remain in the 60s in many locations. Dryline should mix eastward this afternoon with most non-NAM/GFS guidance suggesting the eastern two columns of the TX Panhandle and Beaver County will remain in the moist sector as peak heating is achieved, with the NAM farther west with the moist sector and the GFS suggesting the dryline will mix just east of our CWA. Progged MLCAPE values are around 3000 J/kg with weaker capping than our previous two nearly weekly similar type risks. Given this and the overachieving convection Tuesday night, am fairly confident some storms will develop with some chance of this occurring east of the forecast area entirely given the GFS solution. Given progged 0-6km bulk shear of around 40 knots and the orthogonal orientation of shear with the dryline, initial discrete supercells are favored. Given favored rotating updrafts and steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km, very large hail to 3 inches in diameter looks to be the primary hazard, followed by damaging winds. Hodographs suggest a bit more near surface helicity compared to previous runs, so there will be a risk for a tornado or two as well. Thursday, welcome cold front pushes south through the CWA, leading to highs mainly in the 70s. Appreciable moisture with this frontal passage looks to largely remain to our west, so have attempted to limit mentions of rain, particularly after noon Thursday. Ferguson && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Friday through Sunday...Models are trending towards a better chance for precipitation as we head into the weekend. Friday could see some early morning showers/storms due to the frontal boundary stalled over portions of the FA and an embedded shortwave moving through the Panhandles. Highs on Friday are a bit of a challenge as cloud cover will be an issue for most of the day limiting the heating, but there is the potential for southwest flow to kick in, at least for the southwest Panhandles and push temperatures back into the low to mid 80s with some clearing late in the afternoon. Some guidance suggest that the front will remain well to the south and while we`ll be on the cool side at the surface due to the front, we will still have deep layer moisture and a fairly shallow inversion aloft. Saturated soundings to the top of the inversion early to mid Friday morning as well as a shortwave moving through, suggests the potential for elevated storms capable of producing large hail. Another shortwave with a cold front associated is expected to move across the northern Panhandles Friday night and again is expected to ignite another round of storms late Friday night into Saturday morning. Given the elevated nature of these storms, large hail will be the main threat. With PWAT`s around an inch, these storms will have the potential for heavy rain as well. A break during the day Saturday with the front through, but as we move into Saturday evening we can expect another shortwave out of the southwest flow to bring even more chances of storms to the Panhandles. There is a a question as to how far that front on Saturday will push south, and if it does take a further south track then the storms will most likely be more in the Lubbock area. By Sunday afternoon, most of the activity will be out of the area or to the east. Highs on Saturday look to be in the low to mid 70s, given the cold front, and on Sunday we can expect mid 70s to lower 80s. We`ll have to keep an eye on Monday as the next upper trough is expected to move across the Panhandles, with a potentially strong stacked jet associated. If the pattern holds, it will likely support wind highlights, and would typically be a good Fire Weather setup, however we still have to evaluate just how much moisture the Panhandles will receive over the weekend, to see if there will be any Fire Weather concerns. But highs on Monday are expected to be in the 80s. Tuesday`s highs are suggested to be in the 80s via NBM, however if the system pushes through as expected, there is a bit of a pullback on the temps for Tuesday and more likely we`ll see 70s to maybe some isolated areas reaching 80. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Primary aviation concern ahead is the potential for stratus at GUY around 12z. At this time, confidence is too low to include a ceiling but have continued to carry a SCT mention as a heads up. While thunderstorms may occur in the eastern Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and evening, at this time probability that these will impact AMA/GUY appears too low for inclusion in the TAFs. Ferguson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 91 54 78 50 / 10 20 0 10 Beaver OK 89 52 77 46 / 20 20 10 10 Boise City OK 86 48 73 43 / 0 10 0 10 Borger TX 96 55 80 51 / 10 20 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 94 53 81 49 / 0 10 0 10 Canyon TX 92 53 79 49 / 10 20 0 10 Clarendon TX 91 57 80 53 / 20 40 10 10 Dalhart TX 89 48 75 42 / 0 10 0 10 Guymon OK 87 50 75 44 / 10 10 0 10 Hereford TX 92 52 80 50 / 10 10 0 10 Lipscomb TX 89 56 77 49 / 30 20 20 10 Pampa TX 91 55 77 50 / 20 20 10 10 Shamrock TX 88 58 79 53 / 30 40 20 10 Wellington TX 87 58 81 54 / 30 50 20 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...77